Member Info for SageOfOmagh

All price sensitive information is now in the public domain. It would be good to see today's RNS followed up with some chunky director buys to emphasise the future potential.
Can't believe the SP is flat after today's news though.

Indeed it does and with Brent at it's current level of $43 that rises to 18.4p. Taking no account of future expansion or any value for Licoln or Halifax.

Allowing for 9% downtime equates to 5 million barrels a year.
Brent $43, cash production cost $18 means $25 cash generated per barrel.
So that's $125M cash per annum or £100M, which over 2 billion shares is 5p per share cash generated per annum.
Yet here we are still struggling to break 6p.
Utter madness.

Agreed hasiba. Exactly how you would expect a competent new management team to act....get the worst case scenario out at the start through the Edison report then over deliver against it while maintaining a cautious tone thereby regaining the trust of the market. Water cut slightly higher than I had hoped but apart from that a very positive but measured update.

by my calculations, so price to EBITDA is currently around 1.25.
Only mugs would sell at this price. All imho.

Bartlebobton, LC tieback is indeeed 50/50 but HUR would charge Spirit a share of the AM cash costs, probably around $18/barrel with the higher production now confirmed. With Brent around $40 HUR oil generates $22/barrel with $18/barrel from Spirit's oil, so most of the benefit comes to HUR.

Mk111, Hedging can be undertaken in a variety of ways. HUR have gone for put options which confer the right but not the obligation to sell 10,000 bopd at $35/barrel so they are not committed to sell any oil at that price. It just ensures that they can sell at that price as a minimum in the event that Brent took another tumble.

500 at 16:36?

I think it will embolden the hedge fund shorters to take a position and hammer the SP short term all imho.

I bought these as a long term play but sold them again within 2 hours, can only see it drifting lower in short term until the inevitable placement is announced.

I thought it was only AIM shares that behaved like this!
Took 4 attempts before I could buy in near the bottom.

is supposed to describe the oil reservoirs not the SP or the quality of this board.

At long last. Production update RNS lodged for release in the morning? My BOOM button is ready and primed.

I see the P&D crew are having a whale of a time with UKOG. HUR pumps much more oil in a week than they do in a year and they need to quadruple production just to cover the day car overheads. If that's worth £30M this is worth £3Billion!

Really? Do you think he'd do that while in possession of 26 million shares?

Well 6 ran at 10,300 bopd from 17/5 to 5/6 before choke size increased to 12,000 bopd, 19 days. Hoping that makes the next one due tomorrow, or should at least be imminent. There must be some sweaty shorts out there.

That beats the high of 8June and is the highest since 8Mar. Bodes well for further increases and more upside potential here.

EC, you're right 're the fundamentals. With 12,000 bbls/day, every $1 increase in the average price of Brent generates an incremental $4M+ pa benefit to HUR. Even on a very modest PE ratio of 5, and with our growth prospects it should be a far higher multiple, that is worth 0.8p extra on the SP. The market is however clearly taking the view that the current production level is unlikely to be sustained, otherwise the SP would be multiples higher than it is. An RNS confirming stable water cut and any choke size increase would certainly force a re-rate. Anything short of that will see further trashing of the SP. I think the risk/reward from here is very much in favour of going long but it's not a share to get your pension on.

Cashflow not caseload, damned predictive text

That's a fair point AS. I too was critical of the lack of hedging. Locking in a proportion of future production near $70/bbl would have protected caseload massively. However I would contend that the company has undertaken a form of hedging through the terms it negotiated for the lease of the FPSO....if you check the cost of sales section in the FY19 accounts you will note that a good chunk of the lease payments is variable based on revenue. So if Brent only averaged $40 this year compared to $60 in 2019 that would save around $10M in lease costs for 2020. It's not huge but every little helps. This is another reason why the current cash cost of production will only be in the very low $20's.