Member Info for SAGACITYRULES

We did fine in Wales this weekend! So many kilts and bonnets, lots of cash over the bars. So sad that the rugby was not played, albeit we understand why that was. Not often you will see a buying opportunity like this in your lifetime!!

Interesting and reassuring phenomena. Long may the ilmenite prices continue on that trend.
You also posted on the subject of the soon to be delivered yearly results. Of course these are important and eagerly awaited. But I hope that the Chairman will also update shareholders as to their experience of current marketing conditions vis a vis the coronavirus, in terms of sales orders current in hand and future. The hysteria, if hysteria it is, is a worrying market condition worthy of being addressed by the report as a post year end (balance sheet) event.

I know you like statistics, BF, so what about estimated world population being 7.7billion; total coronavirus cases 85,222 of which deaths amounted to 2,924 against 39,559 cases recovered, leaving 42,739 active cases. That is not to say that it has been a serious ailment with extreme consequences for the 2,924 and their families. They have my sympathy, but the bulk standard influenza causes between 290,000 to 650,000 deaths annually.
The flu season in the Northern Hemisphere is suggested to be from October to April. We are therefore 5 months through the Northern Hemisphere season with two months to go. It therefore seems that the outbreak looses its significance when taken in context. It does not compare to the other ailments already circulating the world, especially the developing world. But they do not sell newspaper or fill newscasts. They are not sufficiently sensational !!
We should treat Covid19 as we would any illness, including its viral cousin, the common cold. I actually believe in quarantining oneself when I am afflicted with the "common" cold type illnesses. It is not fair to others if I am coughing and spluttering everywhere. So, bring it on and let us all get back to normality and exercise some sense of proportionality.

I thought that I would quickly look at the Asian Flu epidemic of 1957. I was 10 years of age at the time and the only one of my school of 38 pupils(a very small school!) who did not suffer from it. Again, the virus started in China.
The total lives lost in the UK numbered 3,550. I believe that this puts the current epidemic into perspective, I hope!!

I defer to Buck's right to express concern. But, I also think that the "epidemic" is being overplayed, and the "pandemic" more so. My opinion only.
It appears to me that when a caronavirus case arises, it is quickly isolated. The effectiveness of the isolation may be questionable, but the effort to isolate is there. As this infection plays out, those who are currently less than effective in their isolation procedures will become more effective.
The numbers are minuscule. In every country, perhaps with the exception of China for a totally different reason, there are more spoilt ballet papers in a general election than there are individuals afflicted by this illness. Most of those who have succumbed, we are told, have other overlying afflictions. The numbers suffering with Covid19 are, we are again told, less than those who are suffering from the "annual" influenza bug. I do not know whether or not these statements are correct. I do know that to date, in Swansea, we have one sufferer out of 300,000, and of the total population there are more with VD than Covid19. What does that tell us?
The market is right to react, especially to get the isolation message across to those who would seek to ignore the threat. But that presents a buying opportunity in KMR for those investors with spare cash. I realise that an extended reduction in the level of China or World trade will have an effect on KMR sales demand, but that should likely be temporary. For those without the spare cash, it is a time to batten down the hatches and see the squall out. Let us hope it will soon pass with the minimum of damage.

Indeed, I am grateful.

It has occurred to me that as I advance through my seventies with all the many ailments that age afflicts upon us, that it is extremely dangerous to be alive. I think that Matt's shared memory confirms that view!!

BF and CAP - Thank you both for your comments. The process is understood and I accept there will be numerous core samples taken at various intervals, at various times, for various purposes. But it is always the case that no matter how diligent and thorough the sampling, as CAP points out, there is always a possibility that there may be a variance, be it positive or negative. This is why I say that a shorter commissioning period leading to the real evaluation of production results will be advantageous. I feel sure we are each saying the same thing, just expressing our comments differently. And I should add, you have both been extremely helpful. Many thanks.

Cap - Many thanks for your insight. That the commissioning is comparatively more immediate rather than a drawn out affair should also make for the confirmation of the successful commissioning more immediate, provided that all goes well. I would have thought that the dredging conditions and grades would have been well assessed in advance. But, I suppose, sampling is one thing whereas proving such through an extended production/processing run is another. I am fairly confident that all will go well, although to hold shares here I must be an optimist at heart!! I am truly looking forward to the results and consequences. It has been a long haul.

BF - Thank you for coming back. I was wondering whether or not any of the analysts had put pen to paper after their visit and I had missed their comments.
On the commissioning, do you know whether or not it will be a phased ramping up in volume throughput terms or a simple throw of the "on/off" switch?

Has anybody seen/received any reports of the effectiveness of these two events which took place in the last 10 days? Has any analyst reported?

Cap - We have to assume that the market has now realised the growth potential of this company and the returns which should arise once the move and the expansion is complete. Certainly now is not the time to sell even if one arrives in profit. The future rewards over the next two plus years should be substantial and heaven knows, we have seen some hard and difficult times over the past 6 1/2 years. I shall be disappointed if the current uptick is just a blip. I have the faith!!

Cap - I wish I was in your gang!! I have a little way to go, but it is getting closer!

Buck, and there I was thinking Inland Revenue, Irish Republic or Illuka!! Silly me? (Do not respond) Many thanks. I am now able to make sense of your comments. I look forward to hearing their comments, but I think that the confusion will hopefully be explained by the explanation that in some instances when referring to CE reference is made to the total capital cost expended on the projects over a number of years, and in other instances the reference is to the expenditure arising within a limited annual period. At least that is my guess as otherwise there would have been, or should have been, fuller disclosure.

Buck, for the benefit of this ignoramus, what does the abbreviation "IR" represent? Many thanks. Just trying to make sense of the discussion.

All looks very encouraging. Corner definitely turned! Now for profits. I am looking forward to seeing the FY results which should also be confirmatory of the turn around.

Merry Christmas to all on here. Thank you for keeping me informed (and amused on occasions). The latest uptick in the sp is a most welcome Christmas present. Let us hope it continues throughout 2020. Good luck to all for 2020 and have a healthy one!

"Managed cash flow" is not a cash flow out of control. Your pessimism is undeserved.

Profitbagger - I am not moved to post comment unless there is a purpose or object. I read your latest post and was going to let it pass as personalised comment. Then I realised that I did not a clue to whom your comment was addressed. If you are going to criticise this individual or another, please have the decency to give others an insight into the person against whom your criticisms are directed. I would also suggest that unless you have something pertinent to say, you might be better advised to consider whether or not your comments are worthy of publication in any case.

Sorry Buck, but did you mean to say "halve" rather than "half(+) the yield"? Irrespective, I agree that the proposed capex is perfectly affordable and still surplus cash to fulfil maintain the promises with regard to dividend 2019 / 2022.