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Only thing that really matters is the profitability. The company did mention they believe they are on course to meet PBT estimates of 63 million!! Which is astonishing considering the repeated reminders that this will be a ‘weak’ year

I’m personally not convinced they will do more than 15 mill this half PBT but IMO any kind of profit at this stage in integration should justify an SP of 300p+, seeing as they are only getting started with the new combined entity

As much as I’ll take the current rise in SP, it seems to be the result of just one institution buying in, who probably know as much as we do

Otherwise nothing has changed, the sentiment IMO is still negative on the whole, and there is still risk with regards to true performance which so far has been obfuscated

I don’t expect the upcoming results to be stellar, but so long as they’re heading towards projections I expect a gradual rise in the SP to 300, and perhaps 500 come next April

My interpretation is speculative, so I'm afraid I don't have an answer to that. Either way, there is probably room for a further smaller buyback up continue to September.

There has been a lot of confusion about the extent of the buyback. Can someone help me figure out the limits of the buyback

At the time of its initial commencement in April, we had 135,366,133 ordinary shares and 8,228,162 dormant shares in treasury

According to this document from the Investment Assocation (https://www.ivis.co.uk/media/12250/Share-Capital-Management-Guidelines-July-2016.pdf) A repurchase of more than 15% is not permitted under the Listing Rules, unless carried out by a tender offer (of which there hasn’t been)

If we use the 135 mil figures for the 15% figure, and exclude the 8 million shares it historically held in treasury, then the company could buy back approx 20 million shares (meaning another 8 million could still be bought back currently)

Currently they have about £5 million left in the buyback kitty, meaning they could purchase perhaps another 4 million shares with that

Which means any further buyback extension can only buy 4 million shares so can’t be more than £5 million at current sp (which could potentially tide us until results if restricted to 80,000 shares a day) unless they carry out a tender offer

At the end of it, potentially 15% of shares will have been removed in just a few months, which is quite impressive considering how much cash they still have

Personally I would support a tender off to buyback perhaps another 10% of the company at approx 140p (I’m sure many of the disillusioned holders would take that up...good riddance!) rather than a dividend, as that would cost ‘only’ 15 million or so

I’ve been a holder for about a year now and the SP hasnt progressed at all. I can certainly emphasise with some of you who have been led on much longer. I felt it was undervalued back then, and since then the company has clearly made enormous strides and is in a much stronger financial position. That’s what has kept me from selling...knowing the underlying value was building and net profits were near. I have to say though the conduct of the board is shady at best, and very disrespectful of it’s smaller shareholders. To an extent I can understand stt1’s disdain for the company. In all honesty if it was a popular share it would be overvalued and I wouldn’t have invested in it!

They seemed to indicate the 3rd quarter was quite successful. I’m certain had R1 declared a full year profit we would be looking at an SP easily north of 300, so the board must see significantly greater benefit even than that in merging with Taptica. It only follows that they felt reporting a good performance would undermine Tapticas offer who’s sp was depressed). If the results were underwhelming, then they would have declared it by now seeing as it would only have strengthened the case for a takeover.

I really hope for a first quarter update post merger, as I don’t feel it’s fair to keep us in the dark until the next half year report which is in September. I’m confident once the figures and potential synergies come out the market cap will rise to 500m plus, and signs of decent growth will make it a billion pound company. So I’ll hold

If these figures check out then R1s latest quarter will have been brilliant, which alone would have sent the SP north of 300p by now. Right now some are talking about 300p in TAP shares (which would be be approx equivalent to 255p in R1 shares for us) after the buyback as a favourable outcome! Still enough for me hold but at a major opportunity cost.

Unfortunately since R1 have not released any trading updates, and will be taken over before the full year results are due, we may not confirm any of these forecasts until the TAP June update. In face if TAP decides not to release quarterly updates we may not know R1s performance for another 9 months!! And that would be obscured by integration costs and write offs.

In principle, I think this merger will produce huge synergies. I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but the boards coyness during this takeover period tells me they have greater designs in mind which would necessitate keeping the sp depressed, which is really frustrating!

TAP are due to present full year results on March 31st...but I suppose they would only count R1 revenues from the date of the merger completion. What about R1s performance in its strongest quarter?

Does anyone know if we’re likely to get a trading update from either company in light of the merger? Wouldn’t R1s performance this past quarter need to be made public? The fabled bottom line profits never technically materialised, which I would have thought would supercharge the sp.

I’m speculating R1 didn’t release a trading update because it was actually very good so thought they might face further resistance to the deal going through. I notice they gave cash figure from end of nevember although it will be substantially more now. I would like to get revenue figures and current cash in this presentation for both companies for this quarter. In any case by the end of next month we should get a full years report for the combined entity provided this deal goes completes shortly, and it looks like it will

If Taptica recover to 300p, which they should easily do with the buyback, that mean R1 shareholders would get 255p to the current 175p, massive upside and I continue to hold.

Good call makes a lot of sense that this current offer might have been the proposition before the TAP sp crash. If the offer was made public a month or so ago R1 holders would have jumped on the chance at that time and combined with trading updates the sp would have rocketed. Now it really does look like R1 holders are losing out by accepting a dilution on a company with a smaller market cap.

It would have been better if R1 acquired Taptica IMO.

The combined enterprise will be split more or less 50/50 between TAP and R1 shareholders. SP of both these companies is currently seriously depressed and will skyrocket. I’m hoping to see TAP settle around 350p, and R1 around 300 before the takeover is complete...is that being too optimistic? The new company, with nearly 100 million in the bank, 700 mill revs and profitable would be easily worth a billion dollars would it not?

As I said earlier, TAP is looking cheap and is now probably heading sub 100 if it turns out there’s a profit warning or other bad news. There’s something going on behind the scenes there.

A takeover might work in R1s favour. I don’t think TAP could offer a buyout price without taking huge debts or dilution so it seems unlikely. But an R1 offer for TAP at around 100p with a one off special dividend by TAP could be acceptable and yield significant synergies. By that point we should have a clear indication of whether R1 is heading into profitability itself by looking at the latest quarter. The alternative is some kind of merger but seeing as our shares are heading in the opposite direction to theirs it would have to be weighted in our favour.

It seems to me that R1 is currently still too small a company to effectively compete with its rivals and therefore needs greater scale, which an acquisition can fast track them to. If both companies are cash generative I don’t see an issue with debt.

Regardless, the performance for this quarter will be a strong indication of how things will pan out for R1, as the integration should be mostly complete by now and there is little appetite for left for jam tomorrow. The poor volumes tell me bulls and bears alike are holding their breaths here.

How anyone thought about the potential for R1 to buy Taptica? TAP is trading at a significant discount atm but have large cash reserves. A one off dividend would probably be enough to persuade shareholders to approve the sale. And with 100 million in funding R1 could stump up most of it in cash.

They are a profitable company and would bring R1s yearly revenues to a whopping 600 mil. I see TAP have suspended their buyback as they are taking about an acquisition. Could it be they are the acquisition target?

Malbright the outlook statement does mention “The Company continues to trade in line with consensus forecast revenue and adjusted EBITDA is in line with consensus forecast EBITDA”

I don’t think the results are spectacular but they certainly are executing against the plan. This current quarter is nearly finished so for them to carry out a share buyback plan implies they are generating cash. If things continue on this trajectory then they will be breaking even for the full year

I’m despairing at the share price as I thought I had surely bought the bottom. Taptica was valued at over 300m and that is a much smaller (albeit profitable) business. And it still is valued as much as R1 even after the recent damaging news.

It seems highly unlikely R1 will report a maiden profit, but am looking for bottom line losses less than 5m, and revenue over 180m. That would bode well for the January update which is only a month from now which should see significant gains thereafter

The recent troubles in the ad industry have sunk several significant players, and the ad tech companies that have been able to weather it (including R1 on account of their formerly large cash pile) will be picking up the scraps. I think this current climate of consolidation could well turn in R1s favour yet.

you cant really blame shorters or algos for the current sp, truth is theres little interest for a company with a track record such as this.

There will not be meaningful SP movement until bottom line profits happen, but when that happens it will hit 500p. Af far as im concerned thats the way it should be. Im skeptical it will happen at the half year results because of the slow first quarter, but feel confident about the full year. Either way im willing it wait it out.

At first I was very concerned about Singer taking over the board, and so did the market, but now it looks firmly like a positive and Bonney is the ideal man for the job. Before Ted unexpectedly resigned this share was heading north of 240p, and I think the sp should recover to 240-300p in due course but seeing as there is so much uncertainty still about profitability in doubt it will return to 500p without further evidence of progress It appears the company has weathered the scare about recent industry challenges. If they come even remotely close to the EDITBA targets I think they have a decent shot at a bottom line profit, which i am really hoping for this November. The only spanner on the works could be restructuring and integrations costs. Am I being unrealistic?

I hope you're right Brassneck. 56 cents per share equates to >30 million earnings for the year. Like you said, once we get the half year results you would expect a hefty bottom line profit if they are to make that estimate, but I think the market would react very positively to just breaking even! If they actually hit those numbers the share price really would become 720p

The consensus estimates from the reuters website also stated earnings of 11 cents per share for FY 2018, which was a bit off lol

The recent annual report and departure of Ted has left so much ambiguity about the actual direction this company is heading. No wonder volume has been so poor.

The only general indicator of this quarter was the statement that trading has bounced back 'quite nicely' to paraphrase in their presentation. But in doing so they acknowledged there has been a recent downturn in trading. This is meant to be a growth company but I see little evidence of organic growth.

If there is a trading update, it needs to show at least 90 million in revs if we are to believe they will meet consensus. If they make 400m in this year I am confident there will be a bottom line profit. But it does seem rather fanciful. I remain invested because I think the company is undervalued regardless.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/sorrell-targets-1bn-warchest-for-ad-agency-takeover-spree-11425724 The man is raising over a billion for acquisitions...he is planning a 5 year exit so looking to grow quickly and reportedly looking at two or three acquisition targets at the moment. Granted the business R1 is in is quite different to what WPP did (though they did own part of AppNexus). Maybe it's wishful thinking, but it could a smart move if he is able to leverage rhythmones capabilities.

They announced the Radiumone acquisition this time last year didn't they? Along with a pathetic non-statement about performance being in line with expectations This is purely speculative on my part but it's pretty clear to me they don't intend on meeting the consensus targets, at least not with the current business. As with previous years, they will try to make up the shortfall with an acquisition. But unlike previous acquisitions, the share price is near historic lows and the company has little in the way of cash left. I still reckon they will be able to muster 40-50m at most in cash for a business with revenues of over 100m and positive EBITDA. Realistically therefore they are aiming for 300-350m or so in revenues from the current business, which with quarterly revs of 80-90m they should easily be able to meet, considering they described Q4 as being particularly weak and recovery since. Of course to pull this off they need to make the acquisition ASAP and therefore I fully expect it to be announced in conjunction with the upcoming trading statement. In fact it wouldn't surprise me if they make yet another acquisition if the share price recovers later on in the year. I highly doubt H1 will show a bottom line profit, but EBITDA will grow substantially. Thoughts?