Member Info for Safi123

Results much worse than I expected, perhaps my expectations were a bit fantastical. Since R1 was not contributing to Q1 last year I had expected them to at least match last years revenue, which itself was at a time of weak performance and mismanagement

That being said, the shrinking performance division has more than halved in revenue which account for at least 25 million reduction compared with last year, and so it’s discontinuation is going to impact less on growth going forward. Not to mention other discontinued operations.

I don’t know what to make of Tim Weller leaving.

I see no excuses for them not to best last years full year revenues...you would expect at least 200million in the 2nd half if trading goes back to normal. But sp will remain depressed until we see significant evidence of growth

Hopefully when the sp is much higher than it is now. At 300p that would be 100 million...

There still £8 million in the buyback left. They can buy 70,000 shares daily at 200p EVERY trading day until september!

Are we expecting a trading update next month? If the results are good, I actually hope they keep it under wraps until September financials so the buyback continues

You probably need to weigh it up in an objective manner, which is not gonna happen when you ask those who have a vested interest in this stock succeeding/failing. Quite silly of you to ask

For what it’s worth, I’m bullish on the prospects of this company though the sp is certainly being manipulated and may continue to be. The chunky buys/sells over the past few weeks without a holding RNS, then the total stop of volume and buyback in the past few days makes me wonder what’s happening. I feel something big is about to be announced, possibly an acquisition? The buyback has been used in the past to pressure behind the scenes negotiations as we saw before the R1 acquisition. I bought more shares last week as it felt like the sp was wanting to move higher

If we look at other digital ad companies like criteo and rubicon project...they expect a 30% fall in Q2 revenue compared with the year prior. For tremor that would roughly mean H1 revenues of 160-180 million, still beating H1 from last year. If they only would release a Q1 update I’m sure volume will spike along with the sp, but sooner or later they’ll have to tell us anyway

If you really need to exit, i would wait until H2 results come in which would be early 2021, at which point the corona impact should have blown over

Would you sell when there is an active buyback? This buyback isn’t a small one...it’s 5% of the company at this rate.

The last few days have had no buyback activity. Price has been falling somewhat, but volume hasn’t been bad at all. Why aren’t they loading up at these levels? It seems unusual. Their previous buyback was consistent daily purchases

Yes we were so close to jam...

Last years H1 revenue was 144 million, with a bottom line loss of about 4 million I think. But that was without R1 contribution in Q1 and without of course Unruly revenue

Although some non core activities have closed down since it can’t amount to much since those were presumably loss making revenue streams

This year? They said they made a solid start to 2020 so I would presume Q1 was 100 million give or take. Q2 will take a nosedive for sure, so perhaps 50 million? That still beats last year and has a good chance of a bottom line profit

If we reach those figures then there will be strong sp movement upwards through H2 as revenues would be anticipated to bounce back (as would the stock market)

Total year revenue will be down but I reckon still will be approaching 400 million

Overall I still hope for 200p plus by he next trading update in mid June, and hopefully 400p by the end of this trading year

Volume today dwarfed even yesterday’s, yet minimal change in sp. anyone know what happened? Are shares being transferred between institutions?

This company delivered bottom-line profit, and this was during a year after which both rhythmone and taptica revenues had collapsed, bad press, an exodus of clients and shareholders etc not to mention a massive integration. Yet they were still able to remain profitable and even carry out a significant buyback. Therefore whilst it is a shame about the economic headwinds this year I still feel that there will be significant EBITDA growth

For long-term shareholders like me, the current economic and social turmoil will positively impact on Tremors growth strategy. It will allow them to buy back shares cheaper (i hope for a further buyback after the interims), catalyse their acquisition efforts by weakening smaller players, and accelerate the redistribution of ad spend from legacy formats to digital/video and CTV which have shown massive potential during this lockdown.

I inherited these shares from rhythmone and have never felt more conviction about the companies robust strategy. I can see myself holding this share another 5 years if it continues to grow in value faster than the sp. I have no sentimental attachment, just trying to maximise my investment.

I've been trying to figure out the impact of coronavirus on ad revenue and ad spend. The Jury's still out it seems, but there's a lot of evidence of large increases in TV viewing, and a shift from traditional media advertising to connected-TV, which is already rapidly growing. Trying to be objective as possible, I still feel there will still be significant growth in connected-TV ad spending this year, though perhaps not as great as predicted. We should be glad that TV viewership is one of the few domains that will greatly benefit from reduced travel, enforced isolation and cancellation of social events, as opposed to many other industries. For those interested see these articles:
https://www.adweek.com/agencies/how-the-coronavirus-is-disrupting-the-global-advertising-industry/
https://www.emarketer.com/content/how-coronavirus-affects-global-ad-spending
https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/coronavirus-quarantine-life-media-consumption-data-increase-1203535472/
You would expect the upcoming financials will clarify the expected impact of coronavirus on business.

Do you think the stock market will swiftly recover? I think otherwise, this market crash will be historical. I do think cash rich and cash generative companies will come out of all this strong which Tremor thankfully is, but for now the market turmoil is only going to worsen and those with limited liquidity/heavy debts will be crushed. Kinda hoping actually...rubicon project and Telaria are still both worth 300+ million yet generate nowhere near as much revenue and are loss making...why are they still valued so much?

I’m curious what the boards plan will be. The current market cap is 165 million, whilst they are projected to have 130 mil in cash at the end of this year. If they start conserving cash I would think it reflects a weaker outlook. If they pair a buy back with an affirmation of the 2020 profitability outlook and a strong Q1, then I’m comfortable with my holding long term.

Coronavirus and oil price wars aren’t going to directly threaten connected TV, but a recession is bound to impact on advertising spend. This wouldn’t be the worst thing if it means killing off weaker competitors. Many ad companies including rubicon and Telaria are loss making.

It seems we are destined for a technical recession at least, a worldwide economic collapse is much less likely, so perhaps there will be some form of economic recovery as the year goes by.

Tremor has a lot to look forward to in H2 with regards to the Olympics and US election. Right now I really hope they take advantage of the depressed stock market with a buyback and further acquisitions. This could be an opportunity for deploying their cash reserves to maximal effect. Come summer time the stock market may already well on the way to recovery. As I’ve said before, just 20 million at current sp would remove 10% of the shares in float.

If the sp approaches 150, then the market cap will be sub 200 million again

Therefore a 20 million buyback would take off another 10% of the shares in float, which would put the sp in a strong position should dividends be reinstated later down the line. Really hoping they have something like that lined up in 4 weeks time. 20 million is only a quarter of the companies cash reserves

It’s hard to quantify the direct impact of the virus on business. My first thought is most tremor’s business is US/Europe based so growth should hopefully be unhindered

On the other hand if there is a significant impact on the sector, the company is in a strong financial position to weather it which should put it in a good position should weaker competitors be killed off, especially as they are looking for new acquisitions

The US elections are going to mean heavy ad spend this year especially for connected TV, which Tremor is perfectly positioned for. So you would expect decent revenue growth this year.

Not impressed with the $325 million full year figure though...the sp ultimately will only be sustained with organic revenue growth. I understand it was a year of integration, but are the tremor/yume/R1 divisions not growing? Look the the trade desk, rubicon project etc YOY growth, that’s why they are valued at such a higher premium. Let’s hope Tremor can achieve the same this year

I’m amazed how effectively they are maintaining EBITDA while streamlining the business. With the stagnant parts gone and new exclusive partnerships with behemoths like LG and news corp, it’s pretty obvious year on year there is significant growth to come.

I think with the new leaner and focussed business, 2020 is gonna be a huge year for tremor. The sp has a lot of catching up to do...I think Finncaps target is reasonable...expect a stepwise rise to 500p hopefully by the end of this year if they meet growth estimates, and thereafter accelerated rise in the sp as 2021 everything will be fully integrated

I’m not sure what they plan for the year end financials, but hope for either dividends or a new buyback as I can’t imagine they are planning further M&A activity for 2020; from that alone sp should be north of 250p

Rubicon and Telaria are merging, but deal will close next July which is over a year behind Taptica/R1 merger.

Rubicon/Telaria: Combined FULL year end revenues $217 million. Combined market cap $733 million
Tremor: HALF year revenues $189 million (weaker half), market cap $243 million

Go figure!

Considering current sentiment, could be the opposite... the price always bounces at 150p, and spends much of it’s time marginally higher than that this past month. If you look at the period immediately following the HY update the sp fell down to 129p then promptly recovered. Someone (probably mithaq) is buying at 150p and thankfully supporting the sp.

The January update should give a strong indicator of performance for the full year. Expecting a miss but as long as cash increases to >100million and we see a full year profit should see a rise up to 250p.

Well I’d be very disappointed if they made another takeover within the next 12 months. Because it would further obscure the underlying performance/growth of the business. What we need is 2-3 quarters of demonstrable growth without integration costs or writeoffs really judge if they are heading in the right direction. Not much to ask for, considering all their competitors do so

I’m concerned there could be a lowball offer incoming. SP has been locked around 150 in recent weeks. The company is in a vulnerable position with recent underwhelming results, but very well positioned for future growth. The top 3 shareholders control 50% of the company. With the winding down of unprofitable revenue streams this seems like the ideal time for a predator to make their move. Within a year the company’s cash will be worth its own current market value

The performance business has collapsed, probably halved in revenue. Why might this be? Possibly reputational damage? They made the mention of viability of this part of the business as well refocusing the company, which with all the bad press from Uber makes me think they plan to jettison it completely.

That leaves the Tremor/Yume division which seems to have a bright future.

Finance wise the company is still in a strong position so good for long term holding but short term will continue to suffer weakness.

A lot of volume earlier at around lunchtime, mostly around 144p so assumed it was selling

Good luck to all those invested. We don’t need good news, just no bad news!

I’m holding too, long term. Both highly anticipating and dreading these results.

The dumping of shares today is concerning. No use speculating why as we only have 2 full trading days left.

We have not had hard figures on R1 performance since a full year ago, which is outrageous when you think about it. That there is a huge question mark. In June time they said they ‘believed’ they were in course for profitability expectations, meaning they hadn’t yet fully comprehended the R1 financials. No wonder there are jitters.