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Fair enough. Either way a lot of volume today but not that much price movement. Indicates absorption. At MC of 12 million I don’t see that happening.

Also I note AIM market index has strongly rebounded so we are at the possible beginnings of a new bull

Some obv didn’t like it. 6m sells in the past hour. Someone is dumping

There was a capitulation of the sp exactly 1 year ago. We are still within that range. Technically now is a bad time to panic sell, as we are near historic lows and sentiment is rock bottom

Fundamentally this business is losing cash fast though. They have utterly failed to find new buyers. The tech is good but clearly demand is not there at the moment

A placing price of 0.5 would value the business at less than 5 mil mcap. Not to say it’s impossible, but would mean you’d have to issue double the existing shares in float to raise 10 million. I’m doubtful there would be enough support to reach that target. Existing large shareholders who just 8 months ago coughed up would be heavily diluted.

I believe the AIM will rebound here so sp will pump

From a technical level, Polarean has minimal liquidity at a very low historic valuation. The chart is ranging, having maintained higher than the recent placing price. It would take a very bad announcement to continue the downward trend.

From a fundamentals level, if Polarean are taking on the bulk of the financial burden of this agreement, the news doesn’t mean much. I hoped they may be deferring the reporting of actual sales of equipment to encourage weak hands to exit the market. After all, they really serve the big hands who invested heavily in the recent placing - and the funding would not have come unless their backers had genuine reasons to believe 1p was a bargain. This was a matter of months ago. If they are to attract further funding in the next 12 months, they NEED to produce positive sentiment in the way of better cash flow.

Ive been building a reasonably large position these past few months. Currently this business is has a mcap of 15 million.

Pros

- Non invasive, safe product

- Essential FDA approvals out of the way

- Is already being used in research and clinically, and data suggests it adds value to patient care

- Massive potential market, and potentially sustainable revenue stream

- Company has no debt

- Company has no competitors

Cons

- Board has poor communication/respect for shareholders

- In need of further funding at least 20 million - future fund raise on horizon

- Currently unprofitable and low revenues

- No sign of recent sales (unless company deliberately not reporting them)

- High cost/size of equipment and training

- It takes a long time to sell/validate/popularise this kind of new technology

- AIM market right now is getting smashed (but possible rebound in Q1)

Unfortunately AIM companies tend to have outsized influenced by their larger shareholders. Which mean news/price is always being manipulated, either to mask a failing business, or to allow accumulation/takeover at bargain bucket prices.

Fundamentally this business is worth a lot more than 15 million. That’s good enough for me. Technically, it looks like the sp capitulated already and someone is accumulating at these levels. But we have to accept board will not reveal their hand until big stakeholders allow it.

I think it’s about time long-suffering shareholders were rewarded with something. I think 2021 will be a stellar year provided there is no general market depression. Right now I’ve been caught up in the crypto currency crazy otherwise I definitely be back in

I find it strange that they would give updated guidance at this time though. There still is a lot of uncertainty coming up for the final quarter. Are they trying to boost/sustain the share price for an acquisition? Ofer Druker has made no secret of their desire for further acquisitions

impressive...it means they expect Q4 revenues to be 110 million or so

Getting very tempting to buy back in...im in two minds as the resumption of lockdowns, Brexit debacle and US election could weigh in on stocks...Though stock market seems to have remained calm so far

Then again the stock inexplicably fell yesterday...what was that about? Triggering stop losses to hoover up stock maybe?

From what I understand Unruly is an SSP, which fits in with their aim to create an end to end solution. Perhaps it’s commercially sensitive, but I don’t think we have any insight as to how clients view this or whether it’s superior to more targeted services. I think they can go a lot further to inform shareholders as to the value proposition and like for like revenue streams. It’s clear both R1 and Tremor had major client losses in 2019 but we never obtained clarity as to what happened

On balance, I think Tremor will have a good 2021 provided the economic situation stabilises. You would expect 30% revenue growth if they are to meet finncap projections, which would send them into decent profit. But between now and then there are so many risks. Once the stimulus money runs out, further economic turmoil could wipe out advertising budgets

I don’t know if they are winning new business. I have zero expertise in this industry, but do some reading around the industry in order to try to guess where the fast changing industry is heading. Unfortunately this company is reticent about it’s actual operations, and we rarely get real insight into the rationale behind acquisitions loss/gain of customers. There are a few somewhat solid facts we can surmise about this company however:
- Finncap were expecting revenues of 280-320 million this year and bottom line losses of >60 million. The company seems on course to do better than that. Hence my surprise
- The lockdown caused a significant collapse in client revenue, meaning this companies source of income is not by any means secure. Another lockdown would logically impact revenues
- It seems this business is actually a conglomerate of multiple smaller companies with presumably their own structure, culture and systems. It behaves like a holding company rather than a single well oiled machine like TTD or S4
- The leadership have a poor track record in Matomy media, which was eventually broken up and sold off piecemeal. Their modus operandi seems to be grow by acquisition
- The reviews I’ve read on glass door from insiders (those who have worked for its various businesses) are scathing - there is a really poor opinion of tremors leadership

My overall view is negative to be honest, but it’s so cheaply priced no wonder PIs keep coming back. S4 capital for example are transparent in not counting acquisitions in their growth metrics. Tremor seem good at hiding these figures

Surprised no one has commented
H1 results were predictably poor - 25 million bottom line loss with break even EBITDA
Q3 results are excellent though, much better than I had expected. Proof that the underlying business model works.

I’m tempted to buy back in, but the markets just had a very bad day yesterday and tech stocks in the US are on a pullback. With talks of another lockdown I think the risk to reward is still too high. But I expect a big gain today.

I wussed out and sold my holdings. I’m a long term holder but...the market jitters feel familiar, we could be in for a rough few months with Coronavirus cases accelerating and the economy seemingly unable to recover yet. Not to mention Donald Trumps seeming on the verge of a meltdown

I do think Tremor is an acquisition target, but the sp movements tell me nothing is imminent. But I’d rather miss out on gaining money than risk enduring another massive sp crash

In all honesty having looked at the leadership of competing technology companies I’m not so sure our current board know how to help Tremor flourish. Strategically positioning for the video advertising market was definitely the right move but in he short term they are still carrying baggage and declining revenues from legacy aspects of their business. The unruly acquisition is majorly loss making as well (negative 8million EBITDA last year) o the timing probably worked out badly for the company. I guess we will see whether CTV revenues recover in 2021 and enter back in at a later stage. I still plan to keenly follow this company and industry

For those still in, good luck and honestly I would be happy for you if I’m wrong.

Clearly S4 is looking for a different segment of the market that Tremor is in. They appear focussed on consultancy rather than programmatic service itself. Not much overlap.

But could criteo be a good fit for a merger with Tremor? From 11th Feb:
https://www.adexchanger.com/online-advertising/criteo-expects-10-revenue-drop-in-2020-as-ceo-clarken-lays-out-survival-plan/
“Criteo is trying to get into OTT and CTV supply, Clarken said. And her background as a leader at Nielsen Watch, the TV ratings and measurement group, indicates that Criteo plans to be a more active player in digital video and CTV.”
...which happens to be exactly where Tremor is focussed

Criteo has a market cap of only 900million, but they hold almost half that in cash reserves. Revenues are going to decline rapidly soon with the upcoming privacy changes diminishing their core business. Perhaps the COVID disruption will hasten their turnaround strategy, and as such it would make sense to look for acquisition targets to augment this. Of course Tremors toxic heritage may put potential acquirers off, but a merger would make perfect sense for both companies. There are really few companies that can benefit from integrating Tremors full stack approach, and Criteo is the only one I can think who are creating a full stack DSP

I know I’m just fantasising, but any thoughts?

I hoped that the buyback could be used to drive up the sp, though clearly it is not being used that way. Sp went up to 150 no problem when the directors sold theirs a couple weeks back, and dropped right back down again after. So I don’t believe it’s just because there are no sellers. However I don’t believe anyone is ‘hoovering up’ the shares either. Frustrating to see low sp when the company has such firepower in its cash reserves.

As for the TU, fair enough. I hope for more details on Q3 performance in September at the HY financials

At the current sp, company needs to purchase around 80,000 shares every day over the next two months in order to complete the buyback. Clearly not going to happen unless there is a significant news update. I hope they at least put out an update for July reporting on improved trading conditions. The last update carried a really somber tone whilst other ad tech companies were quite upbeat

Here is another excerpt from the trading update:
The Company typically structures each transaction 50% in cash and 50% in S4 Capital ordinary shares, ensuring that entrepreneurial management teams are incentivised and motivated at a one firm level. 100% of the equity is purchased to avoid complex, fragmenting earnout structures, which encourages a seamless and instant integration, avoiding operational silos and internal competition.

If we go by what this says...the company has raised 100 million in cash, so they would probably offer 100 million is shares...that’s a 200 million valuation - barely 150p in Tremor shares! But they also state they would offer 5-10x EBIDTA or 1-2x Revenues which would equate to 300million plus valuation

I can’t imagine Tosca or anyone else would accept less than 300p for these shares which equates to 400m valuation, unless they are desperate for an exit?

I noticed that too...I tend to follow Tremors competitors

From the RNS:
S4Capital entered 2020 with a strong deal pipeline and has already completed mergers with Circus Marketing (March 2020) and Digodat (July 2020) and signed a merger with Lens10 (June 2020). The Company continues to have a strong deal pipeline with three potential deals currently in due diligence: one in eCommerce around a major platform in the United States which is expected to be announced imminently, one in Digital Content in Germany and one in Analytics and Measurement in the United Kingdom. There are also several additional potential deals at a letter of intent negotiation stage and various early-stage discussions. The Board believes that despite the economic headwinds caused by covid-19, S4Capital, given its continued growth, is in a unique position to accelerate its acquisition strategy of merging with high-quality, complementary businesses, increasing its scale and capabilities and further stimulating growth.

It’s incredible how aggressive this growth by acquisition strategy is. But I’m skeptical Tremor is a target...as it’s actually larger than S4 and itself composed of several smaller entities, and is not based in the US.

Havent we seen the likes of S4 before in Blinkx and Quindell? S4 seems like a massive pump and dump scheme...no doubt the shares will continue to skyrocket, but I really don’t believe they can take on so many new acquisitions and integrate them effectively. As soon as the deals dry up I envisage a dramatic writedown. I don’t believe Sorrell is quite the genius he’s made out to be...but he does know how to build hype

Agreed

I think the know why RUBI has a higher market cap...it has a track record of proven organic growth with proven tech proposition, so we can be confident it will continue to grow

The jury on tremor is still out, although to those closely following it’s clear the company is also growing. The penny hasnt dropped for the market yet though

FY21 will be the year of jam...and I expect a huge rise 12 months from now...500+ if next years H1 revenues beats Finncaps estimates

With COVID expected to accelerate consolidation in the ad tech sector, I’m sure Tremor are out on the prowl

Rubicon project is valued almost triple this company, and yet H1 forecasts are below 90million. They are the largest independent SSP thanks to recent merger with telaria.

And yet they are valued triple that of Tremor video....despite facing similar falls in revenue in H2

I can’t help but feel it would be a merger made in heaven for Rubicon and Tremor to merge to make a full stack ad proposition that will be able to take on the big boys such as google and the trade desk. Telaria sold Tremor to Taptica in 2017 but it’s becoming increasingly clear that diversified full stack solutions with scale are necessarily to flourish in the post COVID era, so it would be reuniting the companies to some extent

Rubicon project is moving to a NASDAQ listing which I think is the way to go for Tremor to be valued fairly, and this would be a cost effective way to go about it

A 50:50 share merger would value tremor at approximately twice its current value

https://www.oann.com/u-s-and-states-google-antitrust-probe-nears-finish-line/
It seems likely an antitrust suit will be filed. I don’t think Google’s ad tech business will be dismantled, but it could be forced to cede some market share or have limitations placed on its tech stack
Since google receives the majority of ad tech spending (50+ billion pa), even freeing up eg 10% of the total ad spend to other businesses will provide a substantial windfall for tremor and similar ad businesses

Not to mention advertisers are now also pressuring Facebook which is also coming under significant scrutiny

If the ad market is better regulated then companies like tremor could flourish. Right now they are picking up scraps in a recession and still increasing their cash pile, you can imagine how well they’d do with a larger market