Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Very good lengthy read Bobbler
Valuations
Pre clinic 88 million $ 57-119 million $
Phase1 399 million $ 211- 498 million $
Phase 2 734 million $ 436-930 million $
Phase3 1657 million $ 996-2527 million $
Approval 2496 million$ 1582- 3355 million $
End of preclinical 88 million
End of phase 1 399 million
Clearly it would not have been in Sares interest l believe to on licence at end of pre clinical.
Phase1 data results will add more meat to the bone and if we are fortunate to be able to raise funding then progress on phase 2 a.
Whilst a phase 2a trial does not have to include hundreds of patients to enable suitable statistical
analysis (accuracy is related to the magnitude of count) it will give a good indication as to the effectiveness of a compound.
We are not dealing with new kinase inhibitors.
The off target effects are known as from data on 1st generation poorly selective inhibitors.
Tyk2 has been given the all clear as per Deucravacitinib.
We now sit with a compound made up of the above known about molecules.
Are molecules are small that should enable absorption, all important distribution for the tissue involved on the indication with minimum effect on non targeted tissue, a low concentration in the blood stream that will enable minimal off target effects such as myocarditis ( heart ) and kidney damage. These are long term effects in areas of concern.
Our molecules are patented.
As the data and trial stage progress satisfactorily, then the value of the compound increases.
This will not necessarily be indicated by the current market cap as other factors involved ie finance, market sentiment and a degree of uncertainty.
It is not out of the question after satisfactory data shared between interested parties to recieve an offer of between 211 million$ to 490 million dollars plus later this year. These figures of course in dollars and represent also the lowest end of the scale. They may very well be considerably higher !
Pharmas patent protected pipelines are running short, inflation since report, as well as the demand for top end potential therapy will add value.
In addition we have 1802
Welcome comments on this.
Regards
Worthy of posting again, below is an extract from report which indicates at this stage the superiority of efficacy of 1801 over Deucravacitinib. Late preclinical stage admiitedly.
Interested to hear from any poster that the information is either false, misleading or not true.
'Both Tyk2 mutant mice and mice treated with SAR-20347 showed significant reduction of IL-6 and IL-17 in imiquimod-induced skin lesions, but only SAR-20347-treated mice presented reduced levels of IL-23, decreased keratinocyte proliferation and improved clinical score [22]. In addition, SAR-20347-treated mice manifested lower IL-17 gene expression compared to Tyk2 mutant mice [22]. In this model, Works et al. demonstrated that SAR-20347 treated mice showed an almost complete loss of IL-22 gene expression in skin lesions, and they postulate that SAR-20347 would impair the ability of Th17 and γδ cells to induce IL-22 [22]. IL-22 is required for development of autoreactive Th17 cells [77,78]. However, not only IL-22 production was impaired, since IL-22 signaling was also affected in vitro in a human colonic cell line, and STAT3 phosphorylation dependent of IL-22 was completely blocked [22].'
In addition
'Blocking both Tyk2 and Jak1 in this study was more effective than inhibition of Tyk2 alone at reducing psoriasis-like disease severity, keratinocyte proliferation, as well as IL-23, IL-17, IL-6, IL-22, and antimicrobial peptide gene expression, and the authors postulate that targeting a combination of Jak1 and Tyk2 using an orally available inhibitor may be a viable approach for treating psoriasis, but currently there are no ongoing or completed clinical trials for SAR-20347 [22].'
The above report from early 2023.'
Deucravacitinib the allosteric inhibitor does not interact with either Jak1 or Jak2 in the human body.
20347 is not a purely Tyk2
Regards.
Good.orning Damion,
A very pertinent post with link to.
Importantly SDC1802 granted further protection with patent for application in autoimmune.
Takeda 4 billion paid for Tyk2 inhibitor at phase2 stage.
If we took a modest risk factor and at one tenth of the price that equate to 400 million around 450p per share.
Raise additional funds for phase 2 or licence towards end of year.
Clearly the multiple ascending dose data is of the upmost importance.
All important LADMET information from human trials.
Very difficult to give an accurate prediction in preclinical even when 3 different animals involved but we can be reassured due to Deucravacitinib approved for use.
As for the remainder of the Jaks we can look at Baricitinib and although with black box warnings we have far greater selectivity of Jak1 over Jak2 and in addition we have a 4 to 5 fold selectivity of Tyk2 over Jak1.
According to Tim as he termed ,' we believe to be the optimal.amount'
I am certain 300k raise will be over subscribed.
I dont know if the HNWI'S will partake in this, but l not think that will make any difference if they do not.
All important safety data results can then be given to the interested parties.
When this is recieved the interested parties along with Tim and Co can discuss licensing deals or options and is the key time when formal offers leading to an on licence to occur.
Tim and Co here will have option to finance via fund raise or on licence.
Preferably l would like to see Sareum take 1801 into phase 2a first.
Regards
Puma l have never done 10,000 words a day you soppy little sod.
Grow up and get a life, you are clearly rattled.
Seek comfort over on ADVN.
You posted over 120 time pleading with people to sell.
Sareum have not gone bust despite the efforts of people like you. (At least 2 on ADVN)
Go over and chat to them.
You tried your best but alas you have failed. Clearly your best not good enough.
Now run along and be a nice little boy for mummy or you will.not get your Easter egg.
You are correct MegRS300.
Identical agendas to one or two here.
300k is not much to raise.
Will be eaten up.
The good thing is 1801 is progressing.
I believe we are better than most of the others and that includes Deucravacitinib.
Regards and have a great Easter weekend.
Good evening 007,
Very little movement I perceive, prolific share dumping by RF will dry up soon.
No fears of getting to end of phase 1 a and data
Rise on data results and more on progress to phase 2,
On licence early phase 2 l would hazard a good guess.
Sp been hammered before RF came aboard and decimated afterwards.
9 million market cap on a company which its lead compound is now in clinical trial dnd yet 3 years ago circa 300 million.
Market sentiment!
I have an application for shares but l reckon will get nowhere near what l applied for.
To the relief of some will not be posting for bit but will let you know if my application amount gets met. Tis only 300k worth of shares
.
Regards
Who hates Puma.
If l do not agree with a person's argument does not mean l hate them.
You appear very similar to Puma.
Pop over to ADVN and have a read there and you will realise what hatred is.
Let me know what you think of a couple of the posters.
TTFN
Arrogance TBC 123
You need take a look at a few of Pumas posts.
In effect it is you thst started the stack aimed at myself.
Why dont you go over to ADVN and post your views over there if you are not already doing so?
I am sure they would welcome you.
Claimed to have been here years and made 4 posts in past few days supporting the derampers and how you should have listened to then.
Why didn't you sell 7 months ago?
Regards
Forgot to add
See no reason as to why we cannot go straight to phase 2.
Safety profile established.
MTD has not been established and in this event it is not unusual to accept dose 30x treatment dose which Sareum did with no dose limiting issues.
Phase 2 not a problem but will be costlier than phase1b due to patient involvement and increased time span.
Phase 2 will certainly add more meat on the bone and l would take a guess 1801 will be on licenced during this stage or maybe company takeover.
Regards
Good evening HbD, fully concur with what you say.
Tim.and Co will know more than we do. Thst will have latest data. Maybe the data so far has exceeded their expectations.
We are after all dual inhibition and no serious adverse events so far.
Attention to detail and getting things right will eventually pay off.
Regards
'They found that the probability of success was 63% in Phase I trials, 31% in Phase II trials, 58% in Phase III trials and 85% during the regulatory review process, for an overall success rate of 9.6% (63% × 31% × 58% × 85% = 9.6%).30 Jun 2016.'
Interesting Sareum are going for a phase2 and not 1b.
Involves more patients and hence more indicative of effectiveness in the indication in clinical study.
Much more meat on the bones with their intent to follow this route.
From 12 patients original intent with phase2 typically involving a couple of hundred.
My opinion here has not changed one iota in that we will better Deucravacitinib in Psoriasis.
Tom and Co clearly are confident in 1801.
Those that were predicting Sareum going into administration or the SP going to 1p on share dilution are a magnitude of order out.
There were those that wanted Sareum to collapse. Some will be disappointed with this.
Now ask yourselves a question.
Where would Sareum be if investors here sold all their shares 7 months ago?
I doubt Sareum would have been able to raise any funds at all and there would be many ie the last to leave that would own shares worth nothing.
Fortunately this did not play out.
We can now look forward to substantial increase in share value on good development news.
Nigh 20k invested by the BoD of which Parker will get 10k through WRAP.
I have put an application in but l along with others believe this will be over subscribed.
I will know next Wednesday should l not be allocated the amount l have supplied for.
I don't think l will get anywhere near 50k shares and that being very much less than supplied for.
Puma unfortunately sonny you will not be able to participate in this.
Overall the RNS's are good.
It allows us to progress 1801 without restraint.
Yippee
Onwards and upwards.
Completed share offer application via HL so have a decent sized order in, have a feeling they will be oversubscribed.
Closed Friday and Monday so not a lot of time.
If you are not fast you will be last.
Regards to all LTH
Hood.
'I hope you aren’t naive enough to truly believe that by banging on about how amazing the science is, readers won’t buy more shares.'
People still buy whether they read my posts or not.
How many people do you think you have taken your advice and sold and how many have not bought shares to you constant forecast of doom?
You make a statement that Sareum.need to raise money to continue trials.
On reality they only need for phase 1b which is around 6 months.
How can you make such a bold statement then admit you know nothing of the science, ie compounds potential worth and importance of data.
That best laugh of the day. Go and play with your buddies over on ADVN.
You must be their mouthpiece as they are inadequate to post on here.
Night night and be very careful.with that bow and arrow sonny.
The Hood does not care, as the Hood will fail to accept facts that either he cannot grasp or refuses to so as to support his own agenda.
Where have l led people?
Never once have l advised people to buy, as l am in no position to advise.
You have advised repetitively that people sell.
This is a fact.
I am here to see a compound on licenced or maybe a buyout before l sell heavily.
That is where the value lies.
I remember the Puma posting about Majwand.
His plan is to short the share then when it reaches its bottom, buy in and make whoosh loads of money on the rise.
You have the same plan.
I do believe that our real biggy in the bag is SDC1802. I am entirely in xgreement that we may have to give some of our ownership away on this one.
Potentially capable of 1 billion plus at late stage but a substantial amount of this may well be lost should we get involved in a partnership of some sort.
My belief is that Sareum had this as an option but deciding that this amount of loss could be removed by RF finance.
Ok if the SP remained high but as we can see not so good if it does not.
Regards
Price dependant on data results that will include biomarker data that will indicate areas that SDC1801 would be likely to show most potential.
Yes there are other inhibitors. Similar Tyk2 and Jak1 inhibitors,
They are not all the same. Breprocitinib has around similar selectivity for Tyk2 over Jak1
Molecular size being very important.
I have discussed this much in the past.
Our Molecules all 31 0f them are patented.
The compounds as they sat during candidate selection, preclinical evaluation at end of preclinical, phase 1a, phase lb and the price would rise considerably from.the previous stage.
Indications as to which areas of therapy gained on phase1a data along with biomarker data will indicate areas of greatest potential for market commercialisation.
Regards