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The Hood
' The problem, if you don’t raise enough, is that everyone knows there needs to be a further raise. They have to raise several million quid this time round else there’s no point.'
In what capacity are you to state '
'They have to raise several million quid this time round else there’s no point.'
Regards
Good morning PCS1954
Yes, sareum indeed need to release comprehensive detail. That will be a first for them.
Although a tad different to us, an interesting deal below for BMS.
https://news.bms.com/news/corporate-financial/2024/Bristol-Myers-Squibb-Completes-Acquisition-of-RayzeBio-Adding-Differentiated-Actinium-Based-Radiopharmaceutical-Platform/default.aspx#:~:text=Based%20Radiopharmaceutical%20Platform-,Bristol%20Myers%20Squibb%20Completes%20Acquisition%20of%20RayzeBio,Differentiated%20Actinium%2DBased%20Radiopharmaceutical%20Platform&text=Category%3A&text=PRINCETON%2C%20N.J.%2D%2D(BUSINESS%20WIRE,its%20acquisition%20of%20RayzeBio%2C%20Inc.
Regards
With regards to raising finance.
Try getting a mortgage or loan on a property and what is required is a market valuation. The data from this valuation will allow within banking practices a percentage of loan that they will lend.
No valuation no mortgage.
That is an extremely simplified analogy of where Sareum sit.
Had our market cap stayed above the 2 pounds a share mark and not been hammered by the return of 737 to CPF or the MHRA being inept with inexperienced staff with consequently being unable to grant approval at what SP would you put on Sareum with the considerable progress and early phase1 a data results?
Has the price prepared to be paid for a potential best in class autoimmune inhibitor dropped?
Maybe a tad yes but nowhere near the amount to justify going from 150 million to a 15 million pound market cap.
Poor finance has caused a very damaging decline.
Are Tim.and Co playing a very tight game with the interested parties?
Full phase 1a data is expected Q2. If we are funded to cover the end of this then no big problem.
Tim and Co should have included in the RNS on failure of drawing down these funds the amount of cash runway we have left.
This in my opinion being omitted from the RNS is appalling.
Regards and am now blowing the froth off of a couple.
Damion good evening, why do believe that 400 million is a silly comment. What do you base that on?
Are you saying that 400 million is not possible?
Phase lb is important and will give a good indication in Psoriasis.
Tim and Co very likely to have ball park figures.
Figures at end of preclinical
Figures at end of phase 1a
Figures at end of phase 1b
Or do do you believe that Tim and Co have no idea at all?
On going discussions have been going on since year dot with Sareum with interested parties.
From these informal discussions as to financial worth of SDC1801 ball park figures will be bandied about.
However, we will never be privy to these informal discussions as to who it is or how much these ball park figures are.
Take my comparison with Deucravacitinib.
4 billion up front. Later stage of course, No significant adverse effect with regards to safety and with regards to efficacy good but not outstanding with regards to PAS175 score. This was over a 16 week period and the general consensus we are looking at inhibitors that can at least equal or better the PAS175 score in a 12 week period. One or two aiming at PASI190.
Interestingly one is a Tyk2 Jak2 inhibitor!
Strange that Tyk2 should have the benefits of Tyk2 with out the adverse effects although we do know, well most of us that TYk2 interacts with Jak2.
There are later generation jak inhibitors which are way more selective than early Jak inhibitors.
There have been inhibitors with Tyk2 Jak1 jak2and Jak 3. Call it broad spectrum. They will work to an extent. They will also have off target ie adverse effects. Different diseases require differing amounts of Jak1 Jak2 Jak3 and Tyk2.
With Deucravacitinib the first Tyk2 inhibitor promising excellent safety and a mechanism ie the Allosteric route that was portrayed as the bees knees, mutts nut or dogs danglies, whatever term you like to use.
It has not been that. UC for example is better controlled with Jak1 and Jak3 in this indication.
With Jak inhibition you are looking at controlling the bodies immune system.
If it is broad based ie not overly selective it will adjust the immune system to the parts that need adjusting through whichever STAT pathway but also adjust bits they do not need adjusting with of course referred to off target effects.
There will always be good compounds , first in class compounds but never ever in a million years a compound that will treat every indication with absolute safety.
Deucravacitinib on my opinion over priced. It was deemed to have excellent safety profile, it does.
However, when recieved NDA approval for an indication and then follows commercialisation basically putting it into every conceivable auto immune condition that can starting with biggest buck market ot has not done what it says on the side of the tin so as to speak.
1801 will be very good in some Indications and not so good in others, that is the nature of the beast.
Good afternoon Rebster
From memory and l will confirm later but you had to show the a ability to raise funds when required as a condition of the CTA application.
A considerable amount would be put upfront.
Most if this would be organised by the CTO in Oz and don't forget they will be adding their fees.
However, l believe effects of food up take on compound was added and perhaps a few other odds and ends.
Will get back to you on this later.
Regards.
Sareum will still have to pay research fees. There is also health checks carried out after completion of trial for several weeks and this data needs collecting and collating. Not cheap at all.
Most likely looking around 6 weeks minimum after last dosing before we get final results.
Biomarker data will require analysis. All time consuming and costly.
Generally a phase 1 trial costs around 4 million dollars.
Regards
The finance agreement does not allow further drawdown if the total amount outstanding exceeds 10% of the market cap.
1.3 million owing so a further drawdown of 1.4 million would make 2.7 million. Our market cap would have to be around 27 million plus and with an SP of circa 30p giving 21 million we could not drawdown. The SP has been suppressed.
Sareum were aware of this outcome from when agreement was written up and as stated in their RNS at the time they would be looking at alternative means of finance.
Effectively on satisfactory data and completion of phase 1b data looking at 100 million plusxand we have market cap of 15 million.
Draw your own conclusions
Regards
It would not be unreasonable for the BoD to keep us more informed as in detail.
What exactly are Sareums plans
How much of a cash runway do we have
Are you going to accept the first offer you are given and at what stage,
Are you looking to partner, on licence or open to a company buyout.
Potentially hundreds of millions the Sareum pipeline are worth.
A company could purchase half our shares for around 7.5 million.
Regards
What difference in outcome is there between the below and not having a sufficient market cap value to draw down further funding? Surely the same outcome no available funding.
1.3 million outstanding is 26 miillion shares at current SP
If the resolutions are not passed, the Company will not be able to draw down any further amounts under the Facility. This would materially and adversely affect the Company's business plans and severely impact its ability to meet its intended timeline for the development of SDC-1801 and SDC-1802.
I interpret from the wording that if no more shares are issued for drawdown then what ever shortfall RF have is not due to Aug 25.
Not sure how much of the original amount of initial drawdown still outstanding as sure this was exempt from Aug 25 maturity date as no interest added.l may be wrong.
Will look in depth again later
Regards
Funnyguy, you state
'We are not too far away from confirmation that Sareum have failed the tests and will not pursue. Use your brains.'
From what factual data relating to SDC do you claim the above.
It is false and deliberate misleading information you have stated.
What is the objective of your post?
Regards
Good evening PC1954, your thoughts are good on this, a very constructive post and the best we have by far.
I don't believe any problem raising 300k which ought to take us to the end of phase 1a
Raising up to 2 plus million is possible but would have to look at who is prepared to invest and how much.
On the negative side we will see an element of dilution around 15% should we take options into account on 2 plus million raised
The positive side is the reverse spiral caused by RF finance agreement.
They have reduced an already deflated market cap of approximately 80 million now down to 15 million. 65 million.
if and when funding is raised with the non reliance on RF should not only recover the 75 million but also allow SP growth due to the progression and optimum time to licence 1801.
Looking at around 150 million during progression of phase 1b. This is a tad on the pessimistic side.
Edison price target not far away at 3 pounds a share approx 200 million market cap.
If we take these valuations as a ball park figure it does not take into account any licence deal.
Pessimistically we are looking at minimum upfront of 400 million. This 10% of Deucravacitinib takeover. This is the arena we are in. Current financial climate may dictate a little less. On the plus side our Dual inhibition of Tyk2 Jak1 has been postulated to have greater efficacy
So it is feasible that the 1801 compound at late stage be worth similar if not more than Deucravacitinib. Certainly if we take 1802 into phase 2 trials this is certainly achievable. But for now we can take a very realistic 150 million MC at progression of phase 1b trial. If we take 80 million shares , then this equates to around just under 2 pounds a share.
More than happy to recieve feedback from.the genuine Long term holders here.
Just to add there will also be a requirement for the BoD to reduce their salary. All funding and resources must focus on 1801 similar to what Sierra Oncology did with Momoletonib which GSK purchased for 1.9 billon.
Momo much further down the line and was taken on by SO for upfront 6 million 3 years previous.
Regards
300k is not a sticking plaster
If it were a sticking plaster Sareum would not have negotiated this drawdown amount at this time from RF.
What is I.portant is we have funding to complete phase 1a trial and obtain data results.
In addition 300k was mentioned as an amount that could be raised via investors here.
It all has to start from somewhere. Far better to start low and develop interest as opposed to look at it from the view of 300k is sticking plasters and 3 million required.
Maybe finance 600k here and that would take us to August when the final amount would be required to complete phase 1b trial.