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Good evening PC1954, your thoughts are good on this, a very constructive post and the best we have by far.
I don't believe any problem raising 300k which ought to take us to the end of phase 1a
Raising up to 2 plus million is possible but would have to look at who is prepared to invest and how much.
On the negative side we will see an element of dilution around 15% should we take options into account on 2 plus million raised
The positive side is the reverse spiral caused by RF finance agreement.
They have reduced an already deflated market cap of approximately 80 million now down to 15 million. 65 million.
if and when funding is raised with the non reliance on RF should not only recover the 75 million but also allow SP growth due to the progression and optimum time to licence 1801.
Looking at around 150 million during progression of phase 1b. This is a tad on the pessimistic side.
Edison price target not far away at 3 pounds a share approx 200 million market cap.
If we take these valuations as a ball park figure it does not take into account any licence deal.
Pessimistically we are looking at minimum upfront of 400 million. This 10% of Deucravacitinib takeover. This is the arena we are in. Current financial climate may dictate a little less. On the plus side our Dual inhibition of Tyk2 Jak1 has been postulated to have greater efficacy
So it is feasible that the 1801 compound at late stage be worth similar if not more than Deucravacitinib. Certainly if we take 1802 into phase 2 trials this is certainly achievable. But for now we can take a very realistic 150 million MC at progression of phase 1b trial. If we take 80 million shares , then this equates to around just under 2 pounds a share.
More than happy to recieve feedback from.the genuine Long term holders here.
Just to add there will also be a requirement for the BoD to reduce their salary. All funding and resources must focus on 1801 similar to what Sierra Oncology did with Momoletonib which GSK purchased for 1.9 billon.
Momo much further down the line and was taken on by SO for upfront 6 million 3 years previous.
Regards
300k is not a sticking plaster
If it were a sticking plaster Sareum would not have negotiated this drawdown amount at this time from RF.
What is I.portant is we have funding to complete phase 1a trial and obtain data results.
In addition 300k was mentioned as an amount that could be raised via investors here.
It all has to start from somewhere. Far better to start low and develop interest as opposed to look at it from the view of 300k is sticking plasters and 3 million required.
Maybe finance 600k here and that would take us to August when the final amount would be required to complete phase 1b trial.
At phase1 b l would put a ball park figure of circa 400 million on SDC 1801 alone with satisfactory data. That being 400 million upfront.
We are in the same league as Deucravacitinib but not as far forward. In theory we should prove superior to Deucravacitinib in Psoriasis as we have dual inhibition.
The critical bit here is safety profile as we inhibit Jak1 and are associated with the old Jaki black box warnings that the NDA hand out like confetti.
We are late generation kinase inhibitor which has selectivity magnitudes of zele tidily higher than the all Jak all conquering compounds attempted before.
Selectivity is important as is safety profile with optimum selectivity you will be master of an indication or two as opposed to not enough selectivity where you will be nothing more than Jack of all.
Enough from me.
Regards
I keep adding. To buy at moment is 23.9 via HL.
Yes Aber we are much further ahead but funding needs resolving at very least to take us to end of phase 1a.
Fearg mentioned 100 investors here at 3000 each. I don't have a problem with that.
Regards
I see no reason as to why there should be resignations. A reduction of salaries yes.
They need to resolve the funding issue.
Sareum plan to licence at end of preclinical to early clinical. We sit right in the middle and await data results.
If the data is not get then end of Sareum
If the data is topline ie good safety profile and biomarker data then put a value on 1801
You cannot realistically assign a relevant value until you have the data and its in depth analysis.
You need assurance of satisfactory safety profile and to further enhance biomarker data
The SP had declined drastically with the knockback from the MHRA
Most likely and indicative of this is the cautious start of 5mg per day and ascending dose up to 300g per day. Based primarily on Jak1 Jak2 inhibitors which have far greater unwantrd off target effects.
I did read a comment regarding maybe extra testing to establish an MTD
That is most definitely out of the question as cannot be established in healthy human beings.
300 mg per day is less than a third of the anticipated maximum therapeutic benefit.
Preclinical testing and safety data carried out dosing at 30 times maximum treatment level.
No serious side effects were observed to indicate that a MTD had been established.
Although normally a requirement to have an established MTD before any clinical trial of 5his nature can be granted however it has been such that in the past the attainment of reaching 30 times therapeutic dose was considered acceptable in the absence of a non established MTD.
Good evening again HbD.
I share the same thoughts as yourself with regards to data.
Would you as an interested party invest in any form of a compound until you have data confirmation that the compound has a satisfactory profile to be taken to the next phase of clinical trial?
Until such confirmation is received ot is very unlikely that an interested party would commit themselves. Expectation is one thing but satisfactory data is the proof of the pudding.
Safety data ( and l note the use of the term top notch) is expected by Sareum in Q2.
In addition to safety data, basically LADMET, Pk profile, tolerability there will also be extremely important biomarker data.
Biomarker data will give areas of treatment that SDC1801 should show the most potential in.
A list not exhaustive below.
person may have more than one autoimmune disorder at the same time. Common autoimmune disorders include:
Addison disease
Celiac disease - sprue (gluten-sensitive enteropathy)
Dermatomyositis
Graves disease
Hashimoto thyroiditis
Inflammatory bowel disease (Crohn disease, ulcerative colitis)
Multiple sclerosis
Myasthenia gravis
Pernicious anemia
Reactive arthritis
Rheumatoid arthritis
Sjögren syndrome
Systemic lupus erythematosus (lupus)
Type I diabetes
We don't need the whole of the above just 1 or 2 to start with in addition to Psoriasis.
For an interested party they will need the biomarker data and interpretation of.
Once confirmation of biomarker data we can move forward.
All about the data.
In 2011 Sareum jumped over 1100% in one day on good preclinical trial data of which we had only 27.5%.
As it sits SDC1801 in its current stages of development is worth considerably more than the current market cap. It will be worth considerably more on satisfactory data than it is now.
Your last paragraph regarding RF l agree fully with.
One thing we can all agree on is without RF we would not be in the situation we are now.
The most important glass half full says it has enabled us to progress to clinical trial.
The downside is the extreme negative impact it has had on the SP
The SP is recoverable it just needs satisfactory data that leads to good investment.
Regards
I am working in Kent at the moment and would be pleased to meet up for a beer at some time in the not too distant future PC1954.
Gunner68. Appreciate your response, however at one time finance was easy to come by and unfortunately that is no longer the case.
An agreement in some form another with an interested party is one route, but this in turn is not straight forward as dependant on what and who the interested party or parties intend on doing with 1801 and how much funds they have themselves for further development and/or how much they are prepared to pay upfront at which stage of phase completion reflects in increased value of 1801.
For example a 10 to 20% ownership of sareum for circa 2 to 4 million advance.
They will have options and it is down to BoD took at the best or least damaging way forward as some would chose to see it.
Regards.