Member Info for rylidan

I'd be very happy in a no offer. Want to see the full year results this year and next. IMO we wont be anything like true value until then. The market needs proof the restructuring has worked. Would most limsly vote against any offer anyway.

Practically every trade is shown as a sell. If has all week. Why? The spread deliberately set higher to give this impression? Or is there really a large hidden buyer?

They need a majority to push through any takeover. Getting hold of 100m shares will not come cheap. Imagine trying to buy those on the open market! Anyone know what percentage they will need to hold to force a takeover?

Most of the institutions have averages in the 70 to 80p range and will expect a decent return IMO or will be prepared to reject and wait. Not long to find out.

70% of this business is with institutional investors. The BoD has very little, unlike many companies. It is the II's that will decide, but the rest of us also have a shout and can make a difference

The BoD know the value of the business. I cannot imagine that they would recommend an offer of 90p. They deliberately brought forward the excellent results, to start a defensive posture. I reckon that Clinigen are an unwanted predator as far as the BoD are concerned. We will see soon.

Given the current performance of the business, and the likely year end numbers, I'm still looking for a target of between £1.50 and £2.00 by early 2019. With two years of growth and good numbers it should then get to true value. How the Clinigen offer pitches against that, I await with interest. As for what happens short term, that's for the traders to decide. In low volume trading AIM shares are volatile!

The brokers are doing a lot of trading. The broker may have declared a sale, but someone else would have bought these (with no declaration required). From what I gather a broker will sell at the top of the range and buy at the bottom of the range, where us punters have to buy at the top and sell at the bottom of the spread.

Thanks notrac. You are correct. I was looking at the non adjusted profit before tax of £15.9m. Interesting reading the clinigen report. Looks like a good match for quantum and this acquisition will definitely help with their strategic goals. As long as the offer is good enough id be happy to hold clinigen shares.

Looking at the 2016 report for clinigen EBITDA was 16m so IMO adding another £10m + is significant. True clinigen may get close to £20m this year. Anyway we will see very soon.

notrac, I beg to differ. This will almost double clinigens profit, and the remaining quantum business is lean and mean. Unlike clinigen. The fact that they can leverage a very high PE to buy quantum is significant. This will undoubtedly be a bargain for them even at £1.50 plus. I'd be very happy to reject an offer close to £1 as I'm sure the BoD will. It will be interesting to see what guidance the BoD give when the offer comes in.

What i meant to say was that all the big clinigen director sales were before this potential offer. I would hazzard a guess that the clinigen price started to rise before official news was out because it had been leaked. Clinigen is on a very high PE and we are very low due to issues last year and restructuring. The businesses are similar. For clinigen to buy us at the same PE as their own business would cost over £5 a share. This is a huge deal for clinigen and they wont want to lose it.

All those were before the quantum potentisl offer. This is huge for clinigen

Thats the way i read it too. It could be they have just closed their short or are using this to give flexability in trading later.

If they did offer 1clinigen share for every 10 quantum plus 50p cash that would represent an offer of £1.08 per share. It would only dulute the clinigen shares by less than 15% while almost doubling profit and increasing revenue by over 30%. Thats for a business that fits like a glove for clinigen and before any synergy related savings. IMO that offer would not be enough.

I think there is a reasonable PI buying but IIs are waiting for the offer and making cash by trading. Also i reckon IIs knew about the possible offer and loaded up early so are simply making a no risk profit while waiting to see if the bulk of their shares provide a windfall. Keeping the price low also benefits clinigen holders. New investors will find it hard to see past the artificial trading figures. You can tell its artificial by the daily RNS returns

With low volumes this is very easy to keep around this price. However, realistically we are easily worth this price now after the great half year update. Perhaps the market expects the deal to fall through? It would be impossible to take over quantum at less than £1 a share and even that may not succeed.

SamJsung, you wrote "That outcome may come at a price (signifcantly higher than we may expect)" Let's hope so because I'm still expecting £1.20 to £1.50 !! Clingen will not want to lose this acquisition,. This would be a significant purchase and likely to add over £10m to their profit line next year - in fact this will mean their profit would almost double! Note that Clinigen's revenue is only around double that of ours, so it would also add 30% to their revenue numbers. They want Quantum badly IMO, sorry NEED Quantum. At this price we're a bit of a sitting duck, but that cold easily change very quickly.

Institutions own 70% ish here. Its only clingen holders who would vote for a lower offer and even then I doubt if that would compensate them. I reckon they would struggle to get even 50% at an offer of £1. That would be a full year PE of less than 20. This company is growing well and its all profit making. Debt is continuing to fall as well.

I will definitely be voting against accepting an offer of less than £1. Not that my 120k shares are significant here.