Member Info for ryanf

Buy and hold usually works out better Kent :)

When we hit £2 at the pump, I knew it was time to short oil. Hope you can get out alive Tinker.

Just going to bring this post back up. Oil is now rolling over and I fully anticipate a large rerate to the upside for all retail stocks since the cost of living crisis will be eased.

Remember, buy low (retail), sell high (oil).

Don't buy at the highs then, Fira.

Time to short oil baby

Thanks for the kind words Flash, I'm thinking of starting up a YouTube channel where I value companies using DCFs (I use these to determine good entry points). Although may wait until I fully qualify as an actuary so I have a bit more spare time to dedicate to it. Have 2 more exams to go (out of 15), hopefully will be done by this time next year. Will keep you posted if you're interested.

Type in "market cycle chart" in Google.

Probably somewhere between capitulation and depression.

We may be heading into disbelief stage... must be a suckers rally, right?

Crashing back down, could ease inflation fears meaning this can push higher. Now we just need oil to roll over and should have a green light to push higher. Last time we had a drawdown in the market of this magnitude due to inflation back in the 70s, the 2nd half of the year the market went up about 27%.

Buy businesses that are cheap, not what is currently in fashion (oil).

Yea, waiting for Pablo to turn up in his dunce hat

Invfun,

I'm not sure what you meant by: "Where do you personally see the meeting growth sector for investments?"

If you mean "where do you see growth stocks heading in the future"... I don't like the term "growth" and "value" sectors, it doesn't define the stock enough. It should probably be replaced with "unprofitable, high growth", "unprofitable, low growth", "profitable, high growth", "profitable, low growth".

Now it makes it clear and obvious which kind of stocks to look for. Unfortunately, the "profitable, high growth" names are also overvalued (I.e. tesla) on a DCF basis.

I know it's a chore, but using a DCF model and inserting assumptions about the future growth and profitability is one of the only ways to calculate the true value of a company. The stock market goes in cycles of preferring certain sectors at certain times, so if you can find undervalued sectors at any point in time, hold until they are overvalued, you will probably beat the market.

Note, "unprofitable, high growth" names are difficult to value since DCF models rely on a company making profit immediately, and this is why you'll see so much volatility in the price.

I personally think the troubles that asos are going through are temporary, they have been a "profitable, high growth" name in the past and I think they will go back to that in the future. And my fair value today for asos is £30.

Invfun, watch some Peter Lynch (one of the most successful investors ever) lectures on YouTube. Changed my whole outlook.

Ubik, yea oil definitely could have further to go but after the run I had I just wanted to take profits. You have to think about how high oil prices are now, and a recession will bring down oil too just like in 2008. I'd rather wait until oil comes back down again, all the investment banks downgrade oil and lots of the other retail investors sell out.

I try and get ahead of the market before it moves in that direction doing contrarion trades. Don't always get the timing right, but my time horizon is long enough to just wait it out if it goes lower.

Tried my hand at day trading years ago, but I found the markets move too quickly, and often irrationally. My returns are so much better now when I make one or two concentrated trades per year in businesses I really believe in, but are currently out of favour. My guess is that a lot of retail investors would be better off investing this way!

My partner and her friends spend an absolute fortune on Asos, even during inflationary times since prices are lower online than they are in store. I am about as confident in asos now, as I was in exxon in 2020.

Ubik, yea oil definitely could have further to go but after the run I had I just wanted to take profits. You have to think about how high oil prices are now, and a recession will bring down oil too just like in 2008. I'd rather wait until oil comes back down again, all the investment banks downgrade oil and lots of the other retail investors sell out.

I try and get ahead of the market before it moves in that direction doing contrarion trades. Don't always get the timing right, but my time horizon is long enough to just wait it out if it goes lower.

Tried my hand at day trading years ago, but I found the markets move too quickly, and often irrationally. My returns are so much better now when I make one or two concentrated trades per year in businesses I really believe in, but are currently out of favour. My guess is that a lot of retail investors would be better off investing this way!

My partner and her friends spend an absolute fortune on Asos, even during inflationary times since prices are lower online than they are in store. I am about as confident in asos now, as I was in exxon in 2020.

Apologies if wasn't clear re. Oil. Bought Exxon and had an average of $40. Recently sold at $95. Decided to switch into ASOS after the 30% drop day. Risk to reward looks very favourable. Best of luck.

Invfun, unfortunately with all of the algos nowadays, SPs get pushed to way over inflated levels, and then taken to extreme lows. The markets want to inflict maximum pain to the retails and then they push higher.

We're at lows for retail sentiment now, but it will come back. Bought oil in October 2020 when the whole world was in lockdown, just sat tight for a few years and 2.5x my money. Feel like the same will happen here once inflation fears subside.

This is what capitulation looks like. That's enough pain. I'll pull the trigger.

Yes! The moment I was waiting for. Out of Exxon completely yesterday and I get this sweet drop! Absolute gift. Keep the bad news coming, I want to buy at lower prices!

I bought Exxon for $40 when we had no vaccines and the whole world was in lockdown, and shorters were saying it was going to $20 etc... Fast forward just under 2 years and I made 2 and a half times my money. Will likely exit that trade soon.

I have a sneaking suspicion this is happening to retail. Sentiment is at record low, but the reality is that, yes cost of living is going up, but young people are still buying clothes regardless. As oil starts to revert, I think retail will boom. This may not be the bottom, but feels like we're getting close. Checking the balance sheet, ASOS won't be going bankrupt any time soon. Been loading over the past week and aiming to double my money in 2 years. Good luck!

The last time I remember seeing a JP Morgan price target was Alibaba to $65, two days after it went up 50%.
Understand the game and don't believe anything these manipulators tell you.

Must be gut wrenching watching your short get destroyed, Jo.