Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
THG PLC
Fourth quarter trading statement for the period ended 31 December 2023
Q4 and full year trading in line with expectations and guidance
Group returned to continuing revenue growth in Q4, at +1.1%
Free cash flow breakeven achieved for FY 2023
Strong balance sheet and liquidity, with c.£600m of cash and available facilities
New and expanded Ingenuity partnerships contributing c.£175m incremental GMV
What I don't understand is why MM has under delivered and lied about so many propositions to help the SP recover. Namely:
List Beauty and Nutrition separately (yes Beauty was mentioned in 2021 in their strategic update).
Talks of smashing numbers yet has under delivered on every single trading update I've seen.
Hires a chairman to sort put governance issues yet nothing has changed, I don't even know if the good lord is still alive.
Took him about 2 years to give up the golden share, and that was only because it expired through the terms of the prospectus!
I know there are more that I'm forgetting, but that just makes it worse. I'm trying really hard to think why things have happened as they have, and I hate to agree with the bears but I think he doesn't give a sh*t about shareholders and really just considers them, and everything about public markets a nuisance. And I think he's in a hole which he can't get out of, Ingenuity is so fundamentally tied to Beauty and nutrition that he cannot cut capex to this division. The hopes and dreams of the company resting on Ingenuity's shoulders, yet its performed terribly over the past few years.
I'll continue to hold as I still see value, but do wish we had a CEO who cared about shareholders and unlocking value. I don't know how many more chances he should get before he is replaced. But I also don't know if its even possible to get rid of him even if the majority of retail want him to given his personal holding and the holdings of his rich mates.
Reŵ
As much as I would like a buyout of 11x sales, comparing recent performance of Celcius and THG couldn't be further from each other. Here are Celcius's most recent results:
Revenue 384.76M +104.4%
Net income 83.95M +146.15%
Diluted EPS 0.3 +136.59%
Net profit margin 21.82% +122.58%
Operating income 97.7M +166.19%
Here are THG's:
Revenue 484.63M -9.35%
Net income -66.54M -25.14%
Diluted EPS -0.05 -25%
Net profit margin -13.73% -37.99%
Chalk and cheese tbh, but that's why I'm a buyer of THG and not Celcius. I want the turnaround story and for MM to finally prove he can get this company to rake in the cash. Sunshine and roses is priced into the Celcius SP, the opposite for THG. Any sign of increasing profitability and growth and we will skyrocket from here, but MM has got to prove it.
CPI, the 2022 report annual report on page 2 quite clearly states rev of £2.2bn for THG. When the SP was half what it is today the market cap was around £500m.
0.5/2.2 = 0.23 times sales.
Maybe it has moved the needle... Nice...
Would love for this news to move the needle but unfortunately only tends to if the takeover is in play...
Agazzis, and how do you go about renovating and fitting all of these new stores you'd plan to rent with little cash? Let alone thinking about staff wages.
What if the store isn't as big of a success that you think and margins have to be cut? They don't have the experience or wiggle room in the balance sheet to navigate that.
Asos raised £80m at a SP of 418p, so clearly cash is tight. Meanwhile you're suggesting they open a load of new stores... glad you're not on the board, you'd lose my cash. Clueless.
Agazzis, not sure you're aware but asos aren't exactly awashed with cash right now so they can't exactly go out and buy a load of stores in every big town/city...
The only way they could do that is through debt and the debt is too high anyway right now, plus we couldn't even be sure it would work and then they really would be done if it didn't pay off.
They're much better off shoring up the balance sheet and improve profitability so they can prosper in the future when the macro picture is more favourable.
Asos never really fulfilled topshop's full potential online. It's a brand that belongs on the high street, I don't know why but it just works on the high street and not so much online. I think the retail giants know this and this is why I don't think they'll lose much on the sale compared to what they paid a few years ago.
For me, I shop on asos because it provides a wide range of brands and styles that suit my clothing taste, plus I like the technology and overall shopping experience. When I see topman clothing on asos, I dont think any more or less highly about the brand over any other, so I think offloading the brand and getting a large cash injection is a great move.
Can't say how the market will react on Monday, but I'd be thinking of buying more if this news doesn't move the SP much on Monday, or better, the SP drops.
I do wonder how much they could list nutrition for in the US. I don't want us being diluted for cheap, especially considering how undervalued we are right now. I'd prefer listing when macro is better and SP is naturally higher through better trading conditions. Maybe that's what the BOD are waiting for??
Some of you have such short time horizons. Okay a break-up would be immediate realisation of value, but I honestly think myprotein will be a world leader as a sports nutrition and gym brand. The potential is huge. Could 20x in 10 years imo.
£140m ish adjusted EBITA from a £350m market cap is bargain basement territory. Similar chart to 888 when it dropped on earnings, then proceded to sell off before a heavy buy and turnaround, so I bought heavily on Friday. To get in the 50s was a great buying opportunity imo. Let's see where we go next week.