Member Info for rupans

Should be good as I have done a bit of research and I can see the cruises are selling well already. The spirit of adventure which is the newer ship especially well with some cruises already sold out and others almost sold out. The cruises departing in February and March not so well but after that it looks pretty amazing

advertising cruises or insurance?

Looks like cruises have been selling fast in the last few days.
BanburyBoy miss your little updates.

Yes it is just that brokers have not updated their forecasts. Saga share price is just correlated with the likes of carnival at the moment which is a little ridiculous but it is true that cruise basically makes or breaks Saga long term. I do think that Saga should make around 40M to 45M pounds profit before tax for 21 2H which is pretty much £40M to £45M for the year 21 but we shall see

Pokerchips,

Thank you for the info. I dont think RDH will want to takeover in the near future anyway.

So agree with you that there will not be a takeover but not for your reasons. As there was a takeover attempt a year and a half ago. A takeover could have happened by a private equity group who would have just split up the parts. The reason a takeover is now unlikely is that RDH has such a high stake in the company. And the reason he took up such a high stake straight after there was a takeover attempt was to prevent any such attempts in the future. Unless of course it was by himself which is a distinct possibility as he is nearing the 30% equity mark where he might be forced to make an offer ;-)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-testing-omicron-travel-b1994030.html

should be good for SP

BanburyBoy,

Thank you for that a quick look at forward booking on cruises show that occupancy rates are much higher than 80% from March onwards. Fully expect cruises to pretty much be sold out at 99% occupancy which should mean good profits for 2022

Thank you for mentioning ship payments and yes you are right looking at the financing costs they do not include ship repayments. So we should take £515M off fair value which is equivalent to £3.75. So as stated at a forward PE of 10 we should minus £3.75 off £12 which gives £8.25. So a conservative estimate value for the Saga share price is £8.25 which is closer to BanburyBoy's £6.00

BanburyBoy,

Ok so went through the numbers and all the PBTs you mentioned were before central costs and financing costs. So for second half agree we can have £69m PBT for insurance, £15M profit for cruises, -£12M for travel and -£20M for centra costs and finance add another -£5M for ancilliary crap. So a prediction of £47M profit for second half. Still means this SP should be much higher than £6.
Now look at year ending Jan 2023. We should have £140M PBT from insurance, £90 M PBT cruises, travel who cares, -£50M for central costs, financing and other crap. we get a full year PBT of £180M!!!! At £6.00 market cap would be circa £800M giving a PE of 4.45 which means saga is too cheap at £6.00. note that the forward PE at the current share price is around 2.3. So this share price should really be around £12 at a forward PE of 9 to 10. The current SP is therefore ridiculously low!!!!

BanburyBoy,
Cheers for that. will go through the numbers at the last report again. But still think a fair valuation is much higher than £6.00. Anyway dont forget to give me an invite to the York station party.

BanburyBoy,

Nice post can I ask where you get the £140M PBT for insurance from. Also if this is true how can the share price of saga only aim for £4.00? On insurance alone that would mean Saga is worth £1.4 billion (conservative PE of 10) which would make the SP worth £10.50 before we even consider the profit from cruise or resumption of travel!!!!

watching and waiting. Saga is so undervalued its ridiculous

BB,

thanks my mistake down to bad memory. onwards and upwards hopefully

Hi BB,

Firstly I hope you had a great xmas and new year and that everything went well. Anyway what I meant was saga had previously changed its cruises from 1 long one to smaller ones for the first quarter on 2022. I look now and there seems to be two long cruises (~30 days) which you can now book. So I am concerned that they keep changing itineries and ****ing of clients

BB,

Is it me or have the long cruises suddenly come back?

Sadanboy001,

in three words ... yes a lot.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/12/16/banks-jump-on-interest-rate-hike/

Metro bank's profitability is highly leveraged on interest rate margin ... which improves as rates go up

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/dec/09/saga-to-introduce-paid-leave-for-birth-of-a-grandchild

Looks like we have taken a small hit to cruise capacity. definitely some people have cancelled because of omicron.
Hopefully backon track in the new year

Pokerchips,

Again the media have been doing the whole "we are the evil west hoarding the vaccine" with the whole super liberalism PC BS. Fact is that South Africa has more vaccine than it can handle. Has 150 days of supply at current jab rates. And the health ministry of South Africa have asked Pfizer and J&J to stop sending any more vaccine as it would just go off. The problem is the young South African does not want the vaccine either through vaccine hesitancy or just that they think they are young or immune.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/