Member Info for RunThoseProfits

No obvious reason for the sp to fall back today after a positive update yesterday on the business' handling of its pension and intention at some stage to get this off the balance sheet.

No obvious reason for the chunky drop in sp today?

No obvious reason for the chunky drop in sp today?

What should we make of the 2 new short positions in the last couple of days? Struggling to believe the drop in the sp today given the very positive update at the AGM yesterday. I'm fairly new to investing so would welcome the thoughts of those with more experience on the likely impact of the shorts and the timeframe for this. One of my other investments, Ashtead Technology, is another really solid business delivering on its strategy but experiencing recent shorts.

What should we make of the increased level of short positions on Ashtead Tech. Until recently there were 2. The has increased to 4 at a total of 2.5%. The sp seems significantly undervalued as it is. Should we expect it to go lower? I'd welcome thoughts from other more experienced investors as Im relatively new to this.

The performance of Ashtead Tech's share price seems to support the adage of the market remaining irrational longer than one can remain solvent. Since 30th Nov 2023, Ashtead Tech have taken over 3 businesses in cash for approx £115m in total. Each was earnings accretive. The business has a gross margin of 76%, has strong cash flows, a good asset position and introduced a dividend last year. It has grown revenues at an average rate of 41% and earnings at an average rate of 58% (according to Investor Chronicle). This is a strong business, consistently delivering on its strategy - and yet, since the 29th Nov 2023 - the day before the Ace Winches takeover, its share price has risen all of 35p. When will the market recognise the value and potential of this business?

A very positive trading update with the business slightly ahead of expectations in delivering its strategy. I'm surprised this hasn't met with a stronger response on the sp. The share is backed strongly by some funds and recommended recently by Simon Thompson of the Investor Chronicle with a target sp of 55p. At some stage the market, or a buyer, will wake up to the value of this business.

I'm looking forward to the final year trading update tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if the good work and momentum of this business has been sustained, or indeed improved upon. Quite a few funds heavily invested in this and recommended recently by Investor Chronicle's Simon Thompson. Let's see if they're correct.

The share-rice has dropped materially since the interim update which was very positive. It seems that Nigels subsequent discussions with fund managers since then hasn't helped to sustain the sp. I've noticed that the sp can move substantially (down, typically) even on very small volumes. The market will at some point wake up to the value within the business. Translogic and SAWSense are more or less in the price for nothing. The longer term analyst target of 349p per share doesn't seem unrealistic given the potential and the pipeline of each of these divisions and the statements made during the interim presentation.

A small flurry of director buys in last few days, some significant.

Really positive presentation of the interim results today with a strong sense of very positive announcements expected in H2 and the company being on track to deliver on expectations. Notable also that there has been director buying today.

Janebolacha - there is a link to the cavendish note on the Transense website.

I think this is a decent update today. The business is very well positioned to grow significantly after a period of investment. Cavendish maintain their target price of 349p.

Looking forward to the interims on 18th Feb. Shareholders can attend via Investor Meet at 16:00 GMT. I'm expecting a very positive update.

Almost 5% down on the strength of two trades amounting to c. £6k?

The volumes on this small business are often very small but this strikes as quite a price movement on negligible volume.

There is considerable potential for this business as the Translogic and, particularly, SAWsense divisions develop their pipelines and translate these into high margin, repeatable business.

Interesting post, Rifkin. My sense is that one could say this about any number of Aim stocks. I (and Im sure many others here) are sitting with many aim stocks that are simply defying their numbers. The Aim market just isn't attracting the levels of investment that it's great businesses deserve.

Thanks for your thoughts this Dartron. What typically happens when these short positions end? Would they typically take out further renewed short positions? If not, would you expect the sp to spike?

This has become a very frustrating share in the past six months. It has now given up most of the gains it made following its very positive trading update earlier this month. Following two major accretive acquisitions in the past year so and very positive 1H and full year results updates it has barely gained in value. Like a number of very solid, reliable AIM businesses , the share price seems to defy the numbers and the actual performance of the business. This has a forward PE of around 10.5 (on 2026) estimates and a forward PEG of around 0.7. The median analyst forecast is for a share price of 835p and yet, aside from the brief foray after the trading update, it has traded in a band of somewhere between 500 and 570. Does anyone have a view on why the share price is underperforming?

In his Jan 2025 article, Simon Thompson of IC noted that Zeus capital now forecast NAV as being $379 (2024), $429 (2025) and $486 (2026) - vs a current market cap of £188m. The stock is trading on a forward PE of approx 6.0 (on 2024 estimated earnings) and 4.5 (2025) and forward PEG of around 0.14 (if my calculations are correct). There is clearly substantial upside for GMS on those numbers. The short term constraints of Seafood and the warranties, whilst not ideal, are, for me, relatively minor when looking at the bigger picture. DYOR

There's an update on the warrants on GMS's website from September 2024. The warrants expire on 30th June 2025. Can't recall the precise figure but there were approx 85 million warrants outstanding at that time.