Member Info for Runner-Runner

Shorters of stocks are able to take advantage of a falling SP for a number of reasons but, most commonly and most successfully for the reasons below

1. Where a company has a high amount of debt and or very little cash
2. Where market sentiment has turned sour
3. When they believe a company is making poor strategic decisions
4. When they believe a company's products or technology will struggle for commercial success, will soon be out of favour or superceded by superior offerings
5. When they believe a company's management cannot be trusted.
6. When they believe a company has or will soon be having serious cash flow issues.

Looking at those reasons above then reasons 2,3,4 & to a certain extent 5 could be "fair enough" reasons attributable to the LFT and the way Avacta has handled this process.

Given serious Covid LFT sales have largely been discounted by the market now, we have no real debt, a reasonable runway of cash in the bank, IP that is potentiall game changing. The risk/reward for the shorters appears to have very much turned against them now.

The real risk of course is a takeover bid that could come any time and leaving them trapped with huge losses.

A best case them - a fire sale of Avacta - should fetch somewhere in the region of the current SP and Avacta have some large partners who already have detailed knowledge of the IP - so breaking up the company and selling off the IP shouldn't make them much more profit from here. But given we have cash for a while yet, at least to see us through until more conclusive data from AVA6000 trials comes in - waiting for their best case is hugely risky.

Interesting to see what they do now.

We have seen this kind of action before pre midday RNS haven't we?

We did have some positive news coinciding with the II's presentations.

Who would have thunk it?

:)

"If that's not necessary and there is no new RNS to support the roadshow then it just seems a bit odd, only because these aren't cheap"
"it seems a bit self indulgent if its going to be nothing more than an expensive PR exercise"

I agree Wyndrum.

If there is nothing new to impart then why are we tapping up the insti's?

Alistair isn't going to say. "Hey guys, the risk/reward ratio gotta be worth a punt now eh? Even better now than when we raised £50m at £1.20 18 months ago, to part fund our failed LFT."

He isn't Arthur Daley

There has to be something new to say. It would seem inconceivable that there isn't. However, to balance. Avacta have been known to get us all excited pre-presentations before, only to deliver more waffle.

Fascinating to see this play out, but we need to expect some volatility in SP in the meantime.

"With this in mind, testing is still at the core of the US & RoW's fight against covid and any reduction in the UK testing will be to find better quality tests (e.g. Avacta) and cull the weaker ones."

Hi Marik. I don't quite get how you make the assumption that UK (or anywhere else for that matter)are wanting to find better quality tests. What have the UK done since this pandemic began that gives you the idea that they want quality?
Also, why are you saying that Avacta has the quality. They are one of the very few companies to pull their test from sale - because it is not good enough, caught out by the mutating spike.

I know you think that they are quickly going to get a fab new test out there, but you need a huge dose of hope to think that is going to happen and that they can still sell them in huge numbers.

It is time for Avacta and it's shareholders to stop going after the covid prize and concentrate their diagnostics efforts at better targeted markets. That way the investment of time, effort and cash that Avacta put into the Covid test can still turn out to be profitable, by using what they have learned for future diagnostics endevours.

Only if the current covid LFT can be "fixed" quickly and cheaply should they be considering a relaunch. Even then they face the same obstacles that prevented them from selling the original in huge numbers.

Move on from covid. Re-think the diagnostic strategy and they could still make the diagnostic arm of the business a great success.

The goldrush never started for Avacta.

Looking forward to the diagnostics arm moving on from covid taking the lessons learned and the collaborations built with them. if affimers in diagnostic tests are the real deal they should be able to select a few great markets to tap into without the rest of the world piling in at the same time with all it's corrupt shennanigans.

Careful selection and great execution from now on into diagnostic markets that are crying out for better accuracy.

"I can’t see them raising below Conifers 1.20 entry as it would be a massive kick in the dick. More likely we get initial data, the SP is shoved north towards £2 and a fundraise is announced."

MrRipley

The above quote from you makes the most sense in relation to these presentations and expected imminent AVA600 data release.

This way would solve the problem of the insti's being priced out if they have already agreed on a fundraise price.

This ties in with a compelling reason to raise whilst allowing an orderly entry for any inst's that want in.

Thanks

Lol Beinthelead

You managed to say to same thing in a quarter of the space!

My bad!!!

Interested to hear some very balanced views.

These presentations should really have attracted better discussion on here. They are intruiging. Peolpe seem more interested in identifying NDN's lastest incarnation

Let's not forget that these presentations are costing money to promote and present. They will need to be delivered with utmost integrity and without the usual waffle us "normal" shareholders are given. The company shouldn't be doing them without a very good reason. Is it for:

1. Buttering up the insti's for a fundraise
2. Needing the insti's to help fight off a cheap takeover bid

Fundraise option.

Reasons this could be:

LFT sales were poor and we never recovered our costs on the product and cash burn has been higher as a result (certainly possible)
Initial AVA6000 data is extrememly promising and Avacta desperately want to keep the project "in-house" but will require more cash (certainly possible)

There can be many more reasons but none that I can think of as compelling as above.

As ever, there can be good and bad reasons behind the need for a fundraise. I have been thinking for a little while and especially more since Avacta pulled it's LFT from sale, that any future fundraise will only be bought into by the market for exceptionally good reasons. AS has been fronting up fundraises for 12 years and failed to deliver any meaningful revenue. I really don't think the market can stomach another AS fronted fundraise for anything other than immensly promising, "totally validated" data on it's theraputics programme.

Fighting a cheap bid option

The current SP situation has led to many faithful shareholders being horribly underwater here. A cheap bid for this company might well succeed on release of great data re AVA6000. Having more clued up insti's on board would certainly help in fighting off a cheap bid.

The issue though is. How do they get them on board in significant numbers and at a price acceptable to them?

If they give them great inside info and they trade on it, they are all breaking the law. If they give them great inside info and they don't trade on it until the info is released to the market, they won't get a great price.

The issue for me is that neither of the options for the presentations make much sense. I would be very glad to hear others objective opinions on what they think is happening here. I know what you all "want" to think is happening.

If history has taught us anything about Avacta, it is that when we get excited that something great is about to be delivered, we often get a quick kick to the crotch. The last thing we want now is another downside surprise.

Does anyone have any other compelling positive reasons for these presentations that actually make sense?

Due to the fact that AS will be bombarded with all sorts of searching and awkward questions that, unlike during general shareholder presentations, he can't hide from, I just don't see him putting himself through that without a compelling reason. Interested to hear ba

.

So at 16:30 the price goes back to the price at 16:15 and so on until it catches up at 16:45.

Neutronic

HL closing price is always at least 15mins delayed. Even if you have live prices set.

Scroll back to 23:14 last night Zz. And allow yourself to be overjoyed.

Ver misleading Hurst.

Yes, vaccine passports have been ditched.

Absolutely no mention that Instant tests would be used in it's place.

Happy to oblidge Chief. or should I call you Miss Limon!

"It is ze brain, ze little gray cells on which one must rely. One must seek the truth within--not without."

"You want beauty.Beauty at any price. For me, it is truth. I want always truth"

Be careful what you wish for I guess! :)

Hey Ryan,

I wondered who would be the first to totally misinterpret that post. You did it spectacularly well. Congrats.

There is a rather nasty elephant in the room over the Ava6000 trial.

Given that the patients involved in the trial are being altruistic and are "at the end of the road" it is sadly likely, that some will pass away during the trial.

Whilst this wont mean that ProDox has failed, I doubt that is how the market will see it if/when it happens.

Be prepared for taking a very undeserved hit if news of a passing leaks.

Good post Neutronic.

As a shareholder, I would add a 3rd option and that is one of absolute transaparency and honesty.

The secrecy around actual manufax numbers of AffiDX is baffling. It clearly hasn't helped the SP.

Why not just tell us the current number on a regular basis? How is it better to keep telling us the "hoped" for number in the future. Why should production line workers and Managers at GAD have a better idea on the actual numbers of AffiDX rolling off the production lines than the Avacta shareholders?

A regular monthly update stops us all guessing and allows for all to see any scaling up for ourselves. It allows the market to better put a price on the business.

Of course, I too speculate that the "actual" number is low. But so what?

Why is it better for us not to actually know?

We have had questions around actual manufax numbers answered by the wags in here with lines like,

"Heinz don't RNS when they sell a tin of beans". Selling an extra tin of beans isn't a major milestone in Heinz current business.

Selling AffiDX is the single biggest revenue generating milestone in Avacta's history so far.

Nevertheless. We are where we are and again, a massive opportunity for believers of the IP, to load up is upon us once again.

Good to see Avacta has "top billing" for it's AffiDX ad on the bio serve homepage.

Hoping it means that new batch arrived without a hitch.