Member Info for Rugby2015

In4cedros maybe so - but we’ve got to stop look back and start looking forwards and to get exvitexsbiyt the future! Whatever Accrington Stanley’s past I saw they got promoted last weekend so their supporters are happy - onwards and upwards!

I agree ptrotter - LK is like a top Premier League football manager taking over a 1st Div club and saying ‘right, give me 3-5 years and I’ll get you in the top flight’ - old players (NR) are moved out whilst he brings in his own men and infrastructure is no longer sticking plast mentally but long term quality with the Premiership in mind. We, the investors are the fans, we have heard about the team, are excited about the team, we hear pre season has gone really well but we just want to see for ourselves the current team perform so we can assess how good their are in the short space of time they have been together but ... we have to wait for the season to start! LoL!

IMO despite the savings from Spain our expenditure is greater now than what it was in Q4 2017, but that’s not a bad thing, it’s a good thing as it shows progress. LK has appointed a Full time Legal Director, Field manager and increased his head count to split the field crew into 3 distinctive teams to optimise efficiency. He is only able to do this because the cash flow positive situation is sustainable and affordable. If WTI can consolidate and remain around $66 then I think this is at the high end of most peoples expectations and will bring in extra revenue for LK to utilise in the best possible ‘accretive’ way in the months ahead.

Morning Offerman - I take your point about being let down in the past. It’s haoiened to us all no doubt but I can’t let the bad experience of LGO cloud my thoughts on Columbus. I think most investors will be surprised when LK delivers on his promise of transformational growth. No I did not and would not advise you or anybody else to buy and sell. My point was that if I believed the transformational growth this year was only go to result in 800 bopd I would consider selling because I see transformational growth much bigger than that. The only negative I can see at the moment is the current SP but no doubt one of our doom mongers will point to some others

Offerman - nobody will accuse you of setting the bar too high when your predicting end of year production below the companies own lowest forecast - it beggars belief! I was also disappointed with end of year production numbers too but there was a reason for it. You say unless there is a turnaround in waterflood - meaning positive results for the water injection - give them time, it’s still only April and it’s been explained how much water is currently being injected and how they expect to increase it over 2018. To only reach your year estimate of 800-850 there would have to be several major failings, I just can’t see this management allowing that. To compare failings of LGO in the same breath as Columbus is ridiculous, a comment not worth responding to. You are entitled to voice your opinion just as I am mine but if I was thinking just 800 bopd by year end I would consider selling on the next spike in SP but I’m here for the full journey!

Guardian you are right. I think LK has built in a couple of blips ‘just in case’ and don’t think he was linking it specifically to a power failure. Something unforeseen like tropical storms, staff sickness or something more technical like the faulty valve which cost us a lot of production pre Christmas. That’s why I think the high case forecast of 1550 bopd is not the best case! If we are really lucky and don’t experience any blips then we can beat the high forecast as LK did say it’s easily achievable. I think the change of direction with the initial water injection pilot is something that was not expected and I would class that as a blip even if it proves to be a minor one. GLA!

Guardian I think one of the big unknowns at the moment is how much extra production the water injection pilot schemes will produce and when. We know LK has high hopes of success here. The Bonasse field is going to be worked on this Q and it will be interesting to see those production numbers too. It’s not been mentioned by the company recently but it was keen to increase its footprint elsewhere in Trinidad if the opportunity arose. Plenty to look forward to this year I think.

Emily thanks for your comment. We all know the SP doesn’t reflect production alone, it can be reflect potential, management ambition and experience (previous success for example) no debt, cost conscious and many others. The 1550 bopd from the company website I believe is the same as LK’s graph for high case scenario and 900 bopd is low case. I recently watched his January video interview where he explains the graph in detail. He points at 2 blips which he built into the graph just in case anything unexpected like last years power cut takes place - which might happen. He also said that the high case is ‘easily achievable’ so if things really go our way I’m thinking the 1550 bopd is the high case scenario and not the best case scenario. I am not purposely ramping, I am admittedly very positive about the outlook and that video interview is worth another look IMO. We know how a snowball increases in size as it rolls down the hill - right now I feel LK is at the top of the hill making the snowball perfectly round and solid before releasing it!

Emily /3??

Willow It’s by the end of 2019 and you may be right Williw but it is just your opinion and not a fact. Out of interest how do you correlate an SP of 54p to production of 10000 bopd? We all know it’s not a case of just multiplying current production 600 bopd and the SP of 5p by the same number but using that equation 600 x 16.6 gives 10000 bopd but multiply the current 5p SP by 16.6 = 80.6p which is high compared to 54p. If the equation was right then multiply by 11 would give SP of 5p x 11 = 55p and 600 bopd x 11 equals 6600 bopd - Just saying!

Taken from the Companies website this morning under Operations - Goudron field. I quote ‘ The company intends to increase production to between 900-1550 bopd by the end of 2018 through a well optimisation and stimulation programme and a recently commenced Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR, waterfllod) campaign. Long term strategy for field development is production growth to 3000 - 4000 bopd through EOR.’ - My words - ‘AND THATS JUST GOUDRON!!!

Whilst the board is quiet I want to suggest an SP of 54p by Dec 2019. This 3 year plan is achievable if the SP doubles every 6 months for the first 2 years and then increases 50% every 6 months for the next year. Starting at 3p end of June 17 (tick) 6p end of Dec 17 (failed but did reach 8p in Oct) 12p July 18 (who’d bet against that now?) 24p Dec18 (we are expecting transformational growth this year) 36p July 19 and finally 54p Dec 19. It’s just maths, it’s not a direct ramp but I’m putting it out there for comment. I say YES, forget the legacy of the past and look to a newer, brighter future under a proven successful leader. Acquisitions, SWP, Icasos, Bonasse all exciting prospects but Goudron is going to be really profitable in its own right

When we look back at the end of the year IMO there will be many things that have been paid out of existing cash resources that were not in the 2018 budget. I refer back to the CFO media interview last October when he said every single barrel increase in production adds £1k to the monthly revenue and every $ increase in the price of WTI results in $10k per month ‘ net cash’ to the company. To be honest I don’t know what WTI they budgeted for in 2018 (I have $58 in my head as I was thinking it was conservative at the time - can anyone confirm?) The point is we want the company to spend any extra revenue it creates to further speed up current operations which in turn will either generate more cash by increasing production or will be an investment in the field which they are looking to produce from for another 20 years. LK stayed no more quick fixes but appropiate long term solutions and repairs when necessary. In less than a year the Turnaround in the company's prospects are amazing and most shareholders can see and appreciate this - IMO!

There is a lengthy explanation on the website to the Q (summarised) ‘ why won’t the company provide more regular market announcements of production and other performance? A. (summarised) ‘it is industry best practice to provide production updates on a quarterly or half-yearly basis, with other operational or price sensitive announcements being made without delay,’ The full question and answer is worth a read to fully understand the company’s position on this

Q. ‘ Was the Bonasse oilfield included in the Full Tensor Gravity (‘FTG’) gradiometry survey acquired by ARKEX Limited in 2015? A. ‘Yes’

From the company website, apologies if previously published but a good reminder anyway. Q. ‘There is market speculation that a placing is imminent, can you confirm?’ A. ‘There is no requirement to raise funding in the short to medium term to fund our current activities and no placing is planned or imminent. As previously announced,the Company is fully funded for our planned 2018 works programme. The 2018 work programme includes all costs of running the Company’s activities in London, Spain and Trinidad,including the costs of our capital work programmes, all G&A and the servicing of our outstanding loan to Lind partners.’ ‘Management continue to focus on delivering our targets, increasing shareholder value and are making good progress on all fronts.We will update the market, as required, in the near future’.

WTI now north of $67 and long may it stay there. The price of oil is volatile but I can remember how excited the CFO was when WTI was $55 (he was well aware of SPT then) and stated every $ extra on WTI added $10k net to the company each month. The last Q included Spanish payments, they are now reduced, NR salary, to be confirmed, should be dropping out around May. I remember LK saying if WTI dropped all the way to $30 it would not threaten the companies existence, it just meant they can’t advance the company as fast as he would like. Conversely, the extra revenue from WTI has enabled the formation of the the 3 seperate field teams, to enable better efficiency and to advance the company quicker. I don’t want to see a big net surplus each quarter, I want LK to use this revenue to accelerate the advance of the company which I am sure is his plan too whilst at the same time remaining cost conscious at all levels. We are in safe hands, the solid foundations have been laid and the transformational growth he promised will soon start to be apparent to all if its not already. Great year ahead - for starters!

Emiky16 - like you I saw the headline monthly numbers and was slightly disappointed as I was also expecting a little more. Importantly, despite production in January falling ‘due to a testing and monitoring phase’ production for Q1 was only 1314 barrels short of its base target (46,591 target, 45,187 actual production). This difference is less than 3% of Q1 production! It’s encouraging to read that ‘peak production 627 bopd demonstrating High Case potential IS achievable as legacy and technical issues continued to be addressed. What was the high case target again? Was it 1600 bopd or 1700? Once the market absorbs this news the current drop in SP will bounce back IMO. Everything seems on track with Bonasse being reactivated too, $4.1 cash at 31st March, no dilution required unless ‘accretive to all shareholders’. Very solid Q1 results, we all know Q2 will be even better!

1 x RNS with production update and details of smaller deal will be unveiled tomorrow - IMO - but if If not I’m fairly confident it will be by the end of the week. Nobody really knows so we will just have to be patient for a few more days.