Member Info for Rugby2015

Evening Offerman - I did read your post correctly but when I was referring to production increase of 560 to 900 bopd hardly being transformational I was really referring to LK’s comments that in 2018 we will see transformational growth in the company or words to that affect. He didn’t over deliver Q4 2017 which I am sure still rankles with him so IMO his projections for end of 2018 are conservative to give him every chance to over deliver this time. End of year production is just one measure of the companies progress, successful water injection which will result in higher production is another, further acquisitions and successful drilling in SWP are other major factors amongst others that will affect the SP.

JackyH50 - ‘seems the company is a hit and hope on DTU & Heluos’ - not worthy of a response - unbelievable!

D14MOND - come back at Xmas (preferably not before) and let’s discuss then

Offerman with the information we currently have at our disposal and you not wanting to get ahead of yourself too much I can see why yiu’ve quoted the figures you have. Maybe after the next operational update (or 2) you’ll be confident of raising those numbers. Personally, I think 1000 bopd or less would be seen as a huge disappointment by LK and I would join him, let’s see what the next update brings . Just to add, going from 560 bopd to 850 or 900 might be described as healthy but hardly transformational. I really do think that the previous company’s history caused so much pain to shareholders, (and I was one of them), people are too scared to believe that this time it’s the real deal!

Offerman, I would only be accused of ramping if I stated a number and in this transformational year its way too early to give anything other than a WAG - Wild Arse Guess so I’ll decline your invitation. Production did not rise significantly in the last Q but clearly the company is making progress on many fronts and long term solutions are being found for current challenges for the long term benefit of the company and shareholders. The BOLT deal has been sorted so we have ownership, production increases at Bonasse and Icasos will follow, he now has 3 dedicated specialist teams focussing on delivering value. There are other potential targets in Trinidad, a big deal is in the making, water injection is continuing. A lot will happen between now and the end of the year but his high end production by end of year was 1500 bopd but he has added dips in the graph for unseen setbacks but Alison said he felt this was ‘easily achievable’. I believe he will over deliver this year. WTI is again going to record another higher monthly average than the previous month. Everything looks good to me accept the current SP but I am confident it’s only a matter of time and don’t thinknwe’ll Have to wait too long!

70% profit and sold out at 18.56p! My position is I’m in, average around 28p, I can’t speak for other holders but whilst the SP is stuck just now I seriously can’t see it been under £1.00 at Xmas. What % profit would that be?

Bonasse was mentioned in the last RNS. They will start working on the Bonasse field to increase production in Q2 - that’s now, that’s what they are doing. If they state in advance what the plan is why should they RNS every step of the way. The company has stated several times (see Q & A on HNR website) that they will be giving quarterly operational updates and the reasons why. We’ve never had a strategic road map before, or such an experienced nd well respected and connected CEO so just trust the guys to get on and deliver share holder value. The current SP is disappointing but it will catch up in due course. I’m not worried in the least and would buy more now if I could. If your not wanting to sell now does it mater if the SP is 5p, 6p or 8p - these numbers will be left way behind before the year end - IMO!

Great podcast on Vox markets, I particularly liked his comment that we ‘will be inundating the market with newsflow’ referring to the updates on the 6 wells that they have already begun drilling Yes the SP sucks right now but after Fridays announced deal and this podcast the company is in really in good shape. Definitely rinse and repeat the ED model which will generate serious revenue for the company for years to come and ‘near to the tipping pint’ was mentioned again with DT Ultravert and he seemed genuinely excited at the opportunities that 220,000 acres in Montana could produce with Helios 2. The 3 projects are the same 3 they started with, they have developed ED, produced from ED and sold to a major oil company the remaining wells for $5m and a 7.5% free carry. We are safe, we have no debt, our revenue will increase as more wells are drilled. When I first invested here any one of the 3 projects could be transformational for the company and the way I see it now the first one already is. It is generating revenue and the 2 other projects have made great progress and the BOD couldn't be happier. Stay the course and IMO we’ll all be rewarded because the income generated by ED is going to get really serious really quickly!

I imagine once the presentations are over (somebody mentioned RP had meetings on Thursday too, can anyone confirm) we may be given the same news via an RNS if there is something in there that is worthy of Ian RNS. I know price sensitive news must be given to the market straight away but RP could have been talking generally of the plans for DTU and said we intend to update the market next week, or an Operational update will be out shortly - for example. Do you think this is possible?

No post for nearly 2 hours - just testing if this is right

Schroeder’s increase their holding from 13% to 14.2% - another signal of confidence!

Willow pillow - is there an RNS out? Can you post it please

Great update Fadec - very reassuring!

Steady growth, that is really good information thanks for that. Did someone say even with depletion each well should produce around 200 bopd for the last 15 years? Correct me if I’m wrong but using those figures on 24 wells would mean an annual return of over $7 million for no risk or capital expenditure. 24 wells x 200 bopd x $4 x 365 days = $7,008,000 someone correct me if I’ve got that wrong!

LTID - yes so can I so no argument from me, I am happy with that number. My main point is there is so many variables so pointless do ebidy chipping in with ‘ we pay more tax on $50 plus’ whilst factually true doesn’t change the fact that we want POO much higher than $50 and happy to pay the tax because in the bigger scheme of things it is small fry compared to the bigger numbers. Big numbers that we have not even dreamed of. I think like myself all LTH are fully invested, there have been many opportunities to buy around the Schroeder’s 5p mark ( like today) so no empathy with anyone in a few weeks time if the SP does shoot up and people say ‘ I wish I’d bought more’ - time waits for no man and LK is a man in a hurry - not advice just my opinion - time to buy is now!

LTID - using your figure of $45 netback let’s look more accurately at the possible cash available for LK to use for his budget for 2019-20. My last post on this did state ‘revenue’ it was just our resident ‘Mr negative’ who chose, as usual, to go off at a tangent. $45 netback x 340 days (allow 25 days downtime) x 1500 bopd = $23.625 million. That is a mind boggling sone for a company with a current SP if 5p. Admittedly each figure is unknown but I am taking a stab at projective earnings for 2019-20. 1500 bopd might be at most people’s higher end or even off their radar but LK things it easily achievable so let’s go with that. Allowing 25 days downtime, is that generous or mean? I don’t know. POO - it’s near to $70 now and while most estimates believe it will be higher by year end let’s stick with that. My main point is that the potential netback for 2019-20 is enormous, not forgetting that these figures are a ‘guesstimate’ for end of 2018 and LK will be looking to take the company much further forward in 2019-20. LK is delivering and if the SP was double what it is now there would be more belief. The SP is disappointing but LK says this year is going to be a transformational year and I for one believe him. The numbers are going to beyond any LGO’s investors dreams, dilution is over (unless seriously accretive), bold strategy in place, building production is important but LK is thinking way beyond that, waterfloid is not a distant $20 million dream, the water injection has started and without building a 20 mile pipeline to the sea! (good idea NR- not). LK has previously built up a $2 billion company with 2000 employees so when he says Columbus Energy has a very solid asset base, it’s going to be a very big and profitable company with a market cap of $500 million, where is the evidence to support the theory that he can’t do it?

Chesh - I read them all but that was my first and last response to LLL. As all regular readers on here know he just wants to engage with others to cluster the board up with his own meaningless negativity and drivel. I see he has responded to my last post with his only motive what I’ve just described but I won’t be biting this time. Onwards and upwards!

I’ll reply to my own post - annual revenue based on 1500 bopd at $70 for 350 days is over $36 million - now someone tell me why those figure are possible by the end of the year to look at that revenue and more for 2019? The next announcement will see LK pushing the snowball from the top of the hill and the SP will gather momentum for the foreseeable future!

Just to put it into perspective the production rates in 2014 & 2015 are irrelevant as that was with a different company, different costs, different WTI and different management. As for high cost high risk drilling you are having a laugh! Where in LK’s CV does it say he gets involved in high risk drilling. As for costs - I don’t have the exact figures at hand but LK said previous estimates for drilling had been reviewed and the reduction in costs was something around down from $7 million to around $2 million which would be funded from company revenue. Instead of spreading negativity why don’t you get your calculator out and look at the revenue for the end of year productionof let’s say just 1500 bopd and use WTI of just $70 and then work out how he could best invest all this money for the benefit of the company and it’s shareholders

In4cedros - wise choice!