Member Info for RuckRover

Yes crumbs,

"Whoever has will be given more, and they will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them."

Chester,
Again speaking personally, for me the biggest value drivers and the ones with the greatest chance of success are Immunobody and Moditope. Hopefully there will be news Q1 next year to confirm trials have recommenced/commenced. Once we have some patients being treated it may only be a year before some data emerges. IMO.

Chester,
I think you are right, no one has a clue when news will arrive. There may be no news for a while, maybe because there is no progress to report or there may be progress but it's not released as news who knows?
Personally, I think the most likely news to come first will be Covidity. I we don't get an update in the next 2/3 months I think Scancell will have truly missed the boat.
Other than that, you just need to practice your patience - you need plenty of it with this share!

Ratty,
'You must be sitting on a big loss as many here are.'
What's wrong with the above statement? It is factually correct. Even if you can't do the maths, someone who's first purchase was near 16p and bought all the way down to where we are now must be sitting on a loss. I've removed the word "big" if that helps. What's big to me may not be that big to someone else.

Hasiba,
I wasn't questioning your honesty at all, simply stating the only two possible options. It was rather tongue in cheek - the give away was the exclamation mark at the end of the sentence.
I remember you telling me that you run several accounts on behalf of family members so I guess you have a bit more to play with than the average private investor.
I do hope this works out for you (and your family!). You must be sitting on a big loss as many here are.

Hasiba,
Either you have a limitless pot of cash or your not reporting sells!

crumbs,
Their thinking is the same as ours because it's true. What was it Cliff said?
"Great science leads to great products, great products lead to great data, great data leads to great deals"
February 2018 if memory serves me right.

LL,
Well for a ten bagger they would want £1 per share - that's within my wide range of possible values. If I include Covidity I get £1.08

Morning C7, All,
Valuations eh!
I didn't mean to imply that Redmile would sell at 20p or be happy with 20p. My point was they could if they had control they wanted to, we wouldn't be able to do anything about it. Redmile have invested £40m, doubling their money will make them another £40m - I don't think that is a bad return do you?

It is impossible to forecast a value as there are far too many variables - market size, market share, profitability, PE, chance of success, cost to get there, time to get there, competition, unforeseen events (Covid for example), new discoveries, exchange rate, dilution, buy out vs licencing, patents, patent challenges etc etc. On top of the variables, there are the differences between actual intrinsic value and what someone will pay. And on top of that there is the time element something worth £1 in ten years time needs to be given a value today using an NPV calculation.
All we can do is come up with a wide range of values based on assumptions. Take your example of the £3.20 banded around in 2012. This was BEFORE the Moditope discovery. You said you thought this was unrealistic. At the time, it seemed eminently realistic - companies were being bought for $500m and the business proposition with Scancell was an outright sale of the company. It never happened and we only come to the conclusion it is unrealistic looking back.

So, let's address the 20p, 50p, 70p figures:
20p is what I THINK would represent a "good return" when someone has invested at lot at 10p.
70p is what I told Katnick I thought was "achievable"
50p is what I hope I can sell my own investment at and VERY achievable!

What do I base my "70p is achievable" premise on? These are the values by target from my model:

Target SP Year
SCIB1 Melanoma .10 2025
SCIB2 NSCLC .19 2026
MODI1 TNBC .13 2026
Ovarian .13 2026
Head and Neck .04 2026
Renal .15 2027
Total .74p

I have added (to previous valuations) Renal as a target. This has appeared on the Scancell presentations fairly recently. It represents a large market with not many treatment options. I haven't included anything for Covitity (yet!) I haven't included the £42M cash in the bank (this will get spent over time!)

AIMO, DYOR.

Kanick,
Anything is achievable!
There will be a discrepancy between what we as PIs would like versus the big IIs. We invest tens of thousands in the hope of a ten bagger. The IIs invest millions in the hope of a more modest return.
So, I think 20p will give Redmile and Vulpes a good return. Less so for Calculus as they have been invested so long. I think a fair value would be 70p but there's no guarantee we will get that.

Ray,
Surely the end game for both IIs and PIs is that Scancell are sold to a big pharma and we all make some money?
How else will any investor get a return?
The only concern for me is at what price. I was hoping for about £3 (when I first invested in 2012) but with dilution that has reduced drastically.

I thought I'd replace the erroneous thread with a factual one.
The institutional investors combined do NOT have 50% of Scancell as it stands right now. They will of course should Redmile convert their loan notes. There is no guarantee that Vulpes would want to side with Redmile anyway. The recent evidence would suggest otherwise.
Private investors and the board have 50.4% of the shares in issue, 48% being private investors. This is why it was so important to get PIs on side in the last vote.

Hope,
As it stands, Redmile and Vulpes have between them less than 50% voting rights. They will only pass 50% between them when Redmile convert the loan notes.
In terms of where they are now and what CLNs are available this was voted on by shareholders a month ago.

Who's crackin then?
I can't keep up!

C7,
I'm afraid you've lost me there. What's wrong with saying burble's post about trials and the problems the pandemic is causing is "rather sobering"? I thought it was as well.
Since when did AB124 become Aimbig?

Thanks bunsie.
The problem is that COVID is slowing down medical investigations. I have had the condition since March and I didn’t seek help until June and my hospital referral isn’t until next week 2nd Dec. Hopefully once I’ve had that we can start to make progress on treatment or at least pain management
ATB

Hi all,
Thanks to everyone for your helpful suggestions

Hi C7,
The loop recorder picked up no abnormalities in 18 months. I wanted it out as I have multiple conditions and wanted to reduce any intrusions - I imagine you have been in similar situations many times. Yes, I have been a moody git. I still have severe pain from the sciatica. The only pain relief is aspirin as nothing else works. I had to stop taking the aspirin before the op as it thins the blood and increases the risk (am I allowed to say that word?) of bleeding. So now I have uncontrolled pain from the sciatica and a sore chest! I'm a moody git when I'm feeling well so you shouldn't be surprised if I take moody gitedness to a new level.

My daughter-in-law had a teleconference with the hospital yesterday (which we were in) and no tumour regrowth detected. Some weakness in the left side still exists and is being investigated.
Hope you are keeping safe, feeling ok and still punching. On which note, I'm beginning to miss fight night lol. ATB

Ray,
If I did that I'd come away with a jumbo sausage evert time lol.

TF,
I'm reluctant to post. I took your post in the opposite way you write it and my apology said the opposite what I meant. Had a busy day, had my loop recorder surgically removed today so possibly preoccupied with that and not paying attention to other matters. I was so relieved when it was over I went to the chippy for the first time since March. Ordered hot dog and chips and got haddock and chips. I think the face masks are not helping communication. Although I hasten to add, they are helping keeping deaths down and dying doesn't help communication a lot either. Imo.