Member Info for RuckRover

TF,
I do apologise, you are absolutely right. You mentioned both under 55s and over 55s and I homed in on the wrong one. I was intentionally trying to twist what you said, I was merely being stupid.

So if it is approved, what dosage will be given? Half plus full or full plus full. These were the only two regimes tested. How do we know that any of the following won’t be more effective:
Full plus double
Half plus half
Half plus quarter
Quarter plus full
Quarter plus half
Quarter plus quarter?

They really need to get to the bottom of why an accidental change in dosing resulted in such a massive difference in efficacy. If efficacy is so wildly affected, surely all permutations should be explored?

Ivy,
Agree. difficult to compare the two groups and impossible to draw any meaningful conclusions. Apart from the dosing regimes the other variables are group size, group ethnicity, group age range, sex mix possibly, weight range.
The fact that there was a manufacturing "error" may put into question any results. What if nobody got the correct dose? I can't see this drug being approved without a re-trial. Just my opinion.

TF,
"90% in over 55s"
Not sure that's correct . The DT article states:
"Experts say the relatively small number of people in the low dose group makes it difficult to know if the effectiveness seen in the group is real or a statistical quirk. "
"Another factor: none of the people in the low-dose group were over 55 years old"

Yes, have to agree with bobbust - he already has plenty of incentive to make Scancell successful.
I'm not too sure what the trigger for this token purchase was. It is not a significant amount, most of us already had "many multiples" before we were encouraged to take up the 13p OO. I appreciate he was excluded as he didn't hold any shares to qualify but he could have shown a bit of solidarity and empathy with current SH by a least paying around the 13p mark when they were offered at that.
I'll look out for a Covidity announcement in the next couple of weeks, a spike in the SP and a director sell!

Well I’ve not seen it before so thanks for posting.

It does seem ironic that we have managed to develop a vaccine and other treatments in a few months that would have otherwise taken years yet we haven’t got the wherewithal to replace “**** “ with “****” and leave “****tail”, “Han****”, “stop****” or any other ****** as is.
I guess it highlights the intellectual difference between cutting edge research scientists and your average code cutter.

Thanks Bermuda.

The other possibility of course is that the effectiveness figures are different due to small sample size and with mass immunisation they will all settle in the same sort of range - 90% ish?

Sorry, view no few.

Of the three vaccines reporting data so far we find they don’t work in 10%, 5%, 30% (in one regime). Does anyone have a few on whether these people groups overlap or not? So if you are one of the 5% that the Moderna vaccine doesn’t work on, it’s unlikely that any of the others will.

Evening C7,
Nice to see Chelsea win a long way from home. The clean sheet was useful for my dream team an I have the Chelsea goalie and two defenders.
Yes, a lot has happened over the past few weeks and we do well to pause, think and take it all in.

Hasiba,
“ it’s good to be here at this sp which I don’t see it staying long ...”
Where do you see it going up or down?

Crackin,
Yes, it is all about supply and demand. It was the first thing I learned in my economics class at school. I can't remember the teacher's real name, only his nickname - fat cat after the channel ten character.
Three weeks ago, my greengrocer was selling medium sized cauliflowers for £1.99 (and costing him £1.85) No profit margin but no one will pay over 2 quid for a cauliflower.
This week you can buy extra large ones for 99p. (cost him 40p) so a much better margin. Why - there's a plentiful supply. The demand is stimulated by the lower price. I had cauli-cheese last night and have blanched and frozen another couple. I wouldn't say they are "a steal" or "ludicrously cheap" but they are good value, and at this price I will "continue to buy" some for immediate consumption and some to hold on to.

"From 13p to 11p 15% big discount!! to what Redmile and Vulpes paid in recent fund raising."
Well you can compare 11p to any historical price you like and call it either a big discount or a big premium. If you look at the last 12 months, the share has spent 59 days under 5.5p and 37 days on or over 13p. I'd suggest 5.5p would have been a better buy in price for the private investor.
Could Redmile have aquired potentially 42% of the company for 5.5p? Of course not, in order to get this, they had to pay a premium - not enough in my book but never mind. Does this nor value the company at 13p today? No, of course not. Is the company worth a lot more than 13p at some point in the future? Well given the pipeline and financial backing - of course!
The SP has been very volatile the past 8 years and I think will continue to be. So whilst I see plenty of upside, this won't come until there is significant (and good) news. However, there is downside on no news (which is likely imo)
Do Redmile care? Of course not - they have a long term game plan. Do you and I case? Well it depends on our personal gameplan.

Moonparty,
I think the way TD use it and present it it is binary. The are giving SCIB1 a 20% chance of succeeding. If it does succeed, the value will be influenced by the factors you mention but crucially IF it succeeds.

Moonparty,
I’m using the TD numbers but taking out the 20,15 and 10% risk factors and using 100% instead to represent what the value is assuming success. My stance is that the products will either succeed or fail.

Stakis, the risk factor is meaningless. The products will either work or they won’t. If SCIB1 fails, it won’t be worth 20% it will be worth zero. So if they all fail your shares will be worth nothing, if they all work they could be worth 63p. I don’t think the 14.6p TD estimate means anything.

C7,
Did you mean 634K ?

For anyone interested:

If you remove the "risk adjusted" element from the latest valuation, TD are valuing SCIB1/2 and MODI1 at 63p per share.
Covidity adds another 33p taking it to 96p.

It includes the 4p per share for the cash pile (diluted).
All figures fully diluted - includes all outstanding CLNs (total 985M shares)
This is an NPV with a discount rate of 12.5%

Ray,
I was trying to make C7 feel good!