Member Info for RuckRover

Morning Ivy,

Yes, another good day so far, let's hope it continues and even accelerates.

Inanaco, mentioned yesterday that the cancer market for the ones Scancell are targeting is (or will be) worth £120B.

I casually made the observation that IF SCLP were to grap 5% of that, and IF they make 5% profit we would be a 100 bagger (£8 / share) or, allowing for 100% dilution, £4 per share. I see these targets as perfectly POSSIBLE.

unfortunately this opened the floodgate for a torrent of abuse and insults in typical fashion.

Inanaco you are missing a big trick here.

You stated that Scancell will be going after a £120B market. Let's say they can take a 10% slice of that market, £12B

Now, they can either do everything themselves, trouser the whole £12B and after all their costs make 20% ie £2.4B

OR

Get someone else to do all the work and trouser a 20% (say) royalty. On this let's say they make 95% profit = £2.2B

There is a finite amount of cake, and everyone wants a piece. You can't have your cake and eat it!

ivy, sorry the 95% came from Inanaco.

Inan, looks like the bbc has made the same mistake as you and included tax expenses. These fluctuate year on year and will net out to zero over a period of time. They can’t really be classed as profit. Realistically, it looks like big Pharma are making fat profits between 16 and 23%.

Anyway, not that important. My original post was meant to show IF Scancell get products to the £120B market and IF they took 5% of that market and IF they made 5% profit and ASSUMING a PE of 10, the SP would be around £8. I won’t be here to split hairs with you as I will have sold out at £6.

I notice in your latest (typically downplayed) post you expect Scancell to make a 95% profit. Based on this you would expect a SP of around £150. Personally I think this is beyond fantasy land but I’m sure you will find some here backing you on your forecast.

Inan,

No need to be so condescending especially as it is YOUR figures that are wrong.

To repeat, the 2017 accounts showed a profit of 12B on 52B. That IS 23%.
So, please, just accept it and curb the abuse.

Inan,

2017 financial statement for Pfizer shows USD12B profit on turnover of USD52B
That makes 23%

I think you are including the tax credit which was probably rolled over from previous years.
A simple mistake to make.

>you don't understand the market profit percentages …<

But you think Pfizer make 43%?????
They make between 18% and 23%

Crumbs, Inan,

OK, got it.

>Moditope creates a market for itself ......................... it does not take market share ... <

How's that work? Will it make healthy people ill and then cure them?

Inan

So Novartis makes 16% as do most of the big boys.
These companies turnover billions, have been going for years and have fine tuned their manufacturing, sales, after sales research, marketing and advertising arms. They will have relationships with academic, scientific and medical establishments all over the world.

Are you really trying to suggest that a little company like Scancell can burst onto the scene and immediately match these operations? If you are, go and have a lie down!

>are you telling me that a $150,000 PD-1 treatment cost ... 5% profit .... so $142,500 to manufacture and sell . ? Cough <

Where are the development costs recovered?

Inan, the figures were meant to support your view that this COULD POTENTIALLY be worth £8 per share. My figures were simplistic. Why are you arguing with yourself?

Boots charge £5 for a flu jab (I had one last year) I'm not sure how much the manufacturer gets. Eventually, when the NHS wake up, everyone will get a free jab, this will be the least cost to the NHS.

Don't confuse gross profit with net profit.

Getting 5% of the cancer market isn't a given, it may be only 1% (or could be 10!)

The £120B market is made up of VERY expensive treatments. Have you factored in the possibility that Scancell (who can manufacture cheaply) will sell at a lower price thereby shrinking the market value?

As far as the sp goes, you have to factor in dilution. Personally, I would allow 100% so the £8 will become £4. Don't forget, a commercial deal will involve some dilution, they will want something out of the deal and we can't rule out another fund raise.

No one can predict where it will go, there are too many variables, it is sometimes fun to have a stab and prove that given the right circumstances this could well be a 100 bagger.

TF, haven't changed my mind at all, I've had the same opinion the entire 6.5 years I've been invested.

>how many pharma work on a 5% net profit ? <

You think it should be higher? I was trying to be conservative.

Chelsea, yes, three coffees later and I'm in Damascus (no offence)

>so efficacy of 3 patients .............. is the Green light to a £120b a year market …<

With a 5 percent market share and 5 percent net profit would value Scancell at £3 Billion (= £8 /share)

TF, as it happens, I did have a couple of coffees between posts but that is purely coincidental :)
Off for another now.

C7, on balance, I agree with you. I can't imagine that this has been announced now unless they are sure of getting GC funding, a commercial deal or both!

ps, it's not me!

bob, it would appear not everyone shared the unbridled optimism verbalised on this forum. Perhaps they feel one of the issues Scancell face is having too many unfunded irons in the fire. Is today's announcement good news for SCIB1 combo, SCIB2 trial and MODI1 human trials?

If of course today's announcement is followed up with some news on funding, then that's a different story!