Member Info for RuckRover

Ray, I understand probability theory, it's my job!
what you don't seem to understand is common sense. The drugs will either succeed or fail. Hopefully succeed.

Ray,
Sorry mate, they can't be 50% successful on a single platform it's 100 or nothing I'm afraid.
Of course they could be 100% on half the platforms (or 0,1,2,3,4 platforms)

Inan,

"Scancell is not running a phase 3 ... so it will probably never see the $1b plus sales ............. "

So your "pages" of posts "proving" a $1B turnover are all for nothing?

"i really don't need your help ........ as from your posts you thought the industry worked on a 5% profit margin !!! you had not even bothered to research ."

Inan, sorry you hav this wrong as well. I used 5% for Scancell as a newbie. I am well aware of the industry averages and I had researched these before I posted the Scancell calculation.

You seem to have missed the fact hat I have used a closer industry average 20% when applying it to your $1B turnover figure.

As to what I am trying to achieve.. I think it is important that people understand the potential upside to their investment (as well as the risks) based on plausible outcomes.

Ray, the trinity chances of success method is fundamentally flawed. The success % can only have two possible outcomes: either 0 or 100.
If you think the former, you won’t need a spreadsheet!

assuming no further dilution!

Inan,
"your moving to far ahead ....as you are now assuming scancell is going to run a phase 3 .. "
No, you're going totally of piste…

In your 17:56 you wrote

"i have laid out fully how i get to $1b turnover ... ATB it took me a few pages to explain it ... not 1 line"
I simply asked given a turnover of $1B, what do you think the company will be worth? Now, if the drug(s) have not been through a phase 3 trial, how is it possible to get to a $1B turnover, sell them illegally on the black market??

Let me help you out here as you seem to be struggling a little.
I have no reason to dispute your $1B turnover figure, this is a valuable and lucrative market. (providing the drug(s) is/are passed following successful phase 3 trials.
Assuming an industry average profit of 20% and a PE of 10, the company would be worth:

$1B * .2 * 10 = $2B

There are currently 388 million shares in issue so this is $5.15 per share = £3.97 per share.

So that is YOUR valuation.

Inan (18:23)

Why aren’t you in position to give me that? I thought it should be a straightforward calculation based on £1B turnover?

No one is talking about problems. We are merely discussing a value based on the assumption that the data will be good if not great. Whether someone is positive or negative has no bearing on the mathematical calculation.

I don’t really know. I guess the results only show commercial potential which needs to be realised. I suppose the market aren’t convinced the commercial potential can be realised.

Inan,
I don’t think anyone has disputed the commercial value if you improve on the current standard of care.
We need the trials and DATA to verify that.

Crumbs, the valuations will be worked out in a similar way. At the end of the day companies are valued on earnings or potential earnings. These may or may not turn out to be correct, but it’s what people think at the time.
Would you be happy with £8?

Inan,
Assuming your £1B turnover is correct, what would the share price be?

C7, no slanging match, just lively healthy debate! That’s what these boards are for aren’t they.

>scib2 is in effect will be trialing the mark2 scib1 ... design <

So is SCIB1 mark 2 the same as SCIB2? If not, will there be trials of SCIB1 mark 2? What cancers will it target?

>this is what Ruck and Ivy are not even considering with back of a Fag packet economics …<
Inan,

My "back of fag packet" calculations take into account potential market size, market share, profitability and PE ratio.

Yours take into account what exactly?

My calculations say that if all goes to plan, with a following wind, and all current platforms are successful, this could possibly be worth £8/share. I don't think there is anyone on this BB or ADVFN who wouldn't be over the moon with that amount (given we are at 8p right now).

What is your valuation exactly?
Would you be happy with £8/share?

C7,

>my understanding is we will see results pretty early on.<

We may well do, but what is "early on" 1 day, 1 week? Probably a year or two. That's for the first trial which as yet hasn't started. Let's say it starts September this year, that take's us to Sept 2020. Then the data has to be presented, NDAs put in place and negotiations started. You are probably talking 3-4 years. At a cash burn of £8M per year that is £24M-£32M to get a deal.

Or we could go it alone.... What would that take to get to market and profitability - 7-8 years.

Not trying to be negative, just realistic.

>what do we need £30m for ?<

Enough funds to see SCIB1/2, MODI1 through clinical trials to a point where they have gathered sufficient (good) data to attract a bid from a pharmaceutical company and so the long suffering investors might have a chance of seeing some "profits". Also, enough funding to stop people asking "where's the funding coming from?"

I'm sure since the last placing was oversubscribed, they would have been able to get a much larger amount at a slightly lower SP. Unless a deal is forthcoming, another placing is inevitable and as it stands, 8p would be a very optimistic target.

I never spotted that one yesterday.
I just wish we had raised £30M at 10p last placing and take away a big unknown straightaway.

scooby,
what do you mean "top up". If you think 5/6p coming, surely you would have sold out at 10p recently?

It is a shame but America only consider London, Oxford and Cambridge as centres of bio-science. Mention Nottingham and if they have heard of it at all they associate it with the sheriff, Robbin Hood and men in tights.