Member Info for rpoodle

Not much to add from me. Overall, a positive development, and, although it should be noted that Darwin West are prosective resources (as it has not been drilled), the 81% chances of success is hugely encouraging. The one thing I'd note is that the independent report was done by Gaffney, Cline and Associates (GCA). That gives this resources estimations some serious added credibility. If you're not aware, GCA were chosen to do the indepenedent evaluation for Saudi Aramco, and they don't come any bigger than that. GCA are also not the most generous of independent evaluators. In part because of their hard-nosed reputation, they were chosen by Rockhopper in 2012 to do their competent persons report prior to its farm-in with Premier. As I recall, GCA were extremely harsh both in evaluating Rockhopper's reserves number and its development options... So GCA estimating a 462m-barrel figure for Darwin (W and E combined) is no small deal. However, it's all academic without a farm in of course. Here's hoping for progress on that front....

Aye. Final results are typically around end-March/early April

And the buyer reappears. And pretty much at the same time of day as previously. I have no idea what his/her strategy is, but it does make for compelling viewing....

if you want to follow the progress of the case, it has its own page on the icsid website https://icsid.worldbank.org/en/Pages/cases/casedetail.aspx?CaseNo=ARB/17/14

Quite obviously this person is a troll (possibly paid). I would highly recommend all putting him on ignore or this board will become a poisonous dogsdinner (like the PMO board).

Happy to: you go first with rockhopper. You might find that, using your regulatory non-compliant manner of calculating net debt, Rockhopper is an even better buy--thanks to its $337m development carry for Sea Lion phase 1 (and $337m carry for phase 2) and zero net debt (in contrast to Exillon's c.$80m net debt). Oh, and Exillon's production continues to decline. And their board did indeed resign en masse in 2014, it's a highly opaque business and operates in an exceptionally dubious and unreliable business environment. You are as misguided as you are unpleasant: back under the bridge you go. Apologies to all for the off topic.

Exillon Energy. You have to be kidding me. Declining oil production, net debt of around $80m, entire board resigned in 2014, operations in Russia, paid in roubles, etc....

Some good debate today. There's nothing I would necessarily disagree with, but just something to keep in mind. Premier's Zama find is indeed huge, at a billion barrels. But another way to look at it is that 1 billions barrels is equivalent to just ten days worth of global oil demand. That's why I'm sticking with my oil shares for the time being...

Looks like a buy to me. Took place on Feb 2nd, and the two previous trades were 250,000 sells at 4.41p. This was a trade for 1.35m or so at 4.48p, half an hour or so later. Seems unlikely that anyone would be able to sell that much at a higher price than the previous two (sizeable) sells. However, it's plausible that someone could buy at that price after two large sells. Just my take on it.

Nice picture of the condensate on the front cover of this old presentation http://www.bordersandsouthern.com/media/pdf/Investor%20Presentation%20January%202013.pdf Note the tube in the picture does not appear to be pressurized, which reflects the fact again that the condensate is in liquid form at surface pressures (which is why Borders' condensate is typically described as being more like a light oil).

The condensate is quite heavy (for condensate) and separates out before it reaches the surface. So no need to strip out the condensate from natural gas at the surface. So it's pretty straightforward. There will be a lot of gas though, which they are planning to flow back into the reservoir via a reinjection well(s). It will cost a bit to drill the extra well(s) but, more positively, the gas will improve recovery rates.

what fig announcement?

Personally, I think Noble will borrow any rig contracted for the Sea Lion development to poke a hole in Rhea. It would save money for both sides. I don't think the Falklands are remotely high up Noble's priorities however: it almost never gets mentioned in their presentations, and Noble repeatedly makes clear that its areas of priority are onshore US and the Med, along with strengthening the balance sheet.

Although admittedly a very different operator, Exxon's decision to proceed with the Liza development off Guyana (which also has no previous oil industry and almost zero infrastructure) shows there is some appetite for greenfield developments. And, in any case, FPSOs ease (albeit not eliminate) many of the concerns about lack of infrastructure. Even with all that, though, I'm not blind to the risks. This would pose a set of quite unique challenges for Premier. I'm hoping that, in the end, FIG give them a helpful push by reducing/ending the royalty. Either way though, it's a pretty binary bet.

Fair play Garbs. I imagine Noble would be sharing whatever rig Premier brings down to develop Sea Lion, so good news for one should be good news for the other

Smells to me like you just got hold of the new FIG environmental legislation. Or am I off base?

On the subject of any Sea Lion sanction indirectly assisting Borders, it's also worth noting that Premier's push to get the royalty revised (so it is lowered/removed during low oil prices) would also help the commerciality of Borders' assets too. Here's hoping...

Exasperated at the lack of newsflow I actually phoned Borders last week and spoke to their financial director. I had heard about them being cagey but this was ridiculous. I have spoken to Rockhopper a few times and, when they existed, FOGL in the past and they were pretty good, but Borders were like the CIA on steroids. Anyhow the one and only actually vaguely useful piece of info I gleaned was on that particular topic: namely, what do they mean by "funding". I was told that basically it is meaningless. The only potential show in town would be a farm-out. As for what this might look like (or even if any discussions are ongoing), I was given a firm "no comment". If anybody has more luck with them, I would be grateful if they posted here.

Perhaps the board had some encouraging news at the AGM? Here's the presentation from yesterday by the way: http://www.bordersandsouthern.com/media/pdf/AGM%20presentation%2026%20june%202017.pdf

Could be an empty room given how quiet it is on here (and on iii).