Member Info for rpoodle

Biffa and Ovets: posts much appreciated. Nice that we can discuss an area so close to our hearts and wallets without screaming at each other....
For me, the primary importance of the ECT claim is in fact as an insurance against skulduggery by Premier. If Durrant has been tempted to delay Sea Lion in order to cripple Rockhopper's finances, he'd have to offset this against the possiblity that Rockhopper will win millions, maybe hundreds of millions, of dollars in an award. In such an event, he'd look pretty foolish--having gambled and lost--and more importantly Premier's creditors will be furious as the company would have in effect forefitted some 6-12 months of future valuable Falklands oil income while he'd played games.

With this in mind, Rockhopper, if they were smart, would produce a full accounts forecast out to mid-2019 (namely, through to forecast project sanction). This would answer all my questions at least. Obviously the numbers and dates can move around, but Premier have done much the same with ther debt projections, so clearly this can be done. Transparency is king....

And I too have always appreciated your posts; cheers. The key point is your comment: "The burn rate is not going to be $16M every 6 months for starters." That's why I need some kind of reassurance from Rockhopper. I'm struggling to see why not, given that actually things are ramping up substantially now on the development side. But equally I genuinely don't have enough transparency on this issue. What exactly is the "one-off" element in H2 2018 that is not going to further drive down the cash pile in 2019?
I've been a macroeconomist for the past 15 years, and am now a consultant, so have spent many years looking over government accounts and so forth, but corporate accounts are not my forte. I am more than happy to eat humble pie.

Oh, and it's a $15m decline over six months (US$46m to "in excess" of $30m). 12 months more of that and ..... well you can do the maths.

I sincerely hope so, as much as--perhaps more so--than anyone here. But Rockhoper are now footing 40% of the bill for the expanded development team and the new and upcoming FEEDs -- "FEED contracts have or will be awarded for all outstanding elements of the project scope" -- which together makes me think the big ramp up in spending in H2 will persist (and maybe even accelerate) in H1 2019. I massively hope I'm wrong, and have contacted the company for some reassurance. Hopefully they can provide clarity, beause the cash trend is not our friend right now...

Yes, but they are pretty big assumptions, and the risk of delays is enormous (it's Premier Oil for god's sake!). Equally, we are all presuming that Premier are not unscrupulous. They could just contract for another FEED or two (as they have already done with the extra FEED for an FPSO, astonishingly), and put Rockhopper out of business. Equally, they can delay project sanction for 9 months, watch Rockhopper go to the wall and save themselves a whopping $674m in development carry. In the absence of a helpful court verdict (or something completely unexpected, like a farm-in), Rockhopper are incredibly vulnerable. And I say this as a shareholder.

I am hugely concerned about the cash burn situation. At the rate expected over the nest six months, Rockhopper will be penniless by end-2019. The strong cash position that they continuously mention is very misleading: even they acknowledge among the primary risks to the company are: "insufficient liquidity and funding capacity in the event of a protracted delay to the Sea Lion Final Investment Decision." Given Premier's repeated delays, there is a high risk of Rockhopper having to go to the market to raise funds. I'm a very long term holder here but it's inescapable. The hope remains that the Energy Charter Treaty will save our skins, but I'd contend that rockhopper' cash situation is now serious, and will turn critical next year.

I hope so Cubane. It's noticeable that BW mentioned that Premier have asked them to spend some time "and resources" on the FEED. Perhaps BW are covering some of the upfront costs of the FEED?

BW confirmed today that they did indeed sign the LoI for the FPSO for Sea Lion. But also said that they have been asked to do a FEED. That's potentially infuriating news. Premier already did a FEED with SBM Offshore, and now we are facing the prospect of having to pay for another one with our dwindling funds. I'm looking into what the story is and will report back.

Ha! You're right Brightside! Seems likely the FPSO LoI was indeed signed overnight. That's probably the most important LoI thus far (even more so than the rig, I'd argue). Perhaps we will get an update from rockhopper tomorrow?

I know Falklands!!! That's the point!! Why are we only hearing of this now, in Premier's half year results, and not when it happened (which I presume was not overnight).

Seems an LoI has been signed for the FPSO. Why are we not told these things?

I've looked over the article. The key point is that:
"On Sea Lion, Premier and BW “have not signed anything yet”, according to a source, but the two parties are said to be “getting quite close” to concluding a deal."
There is also plenty of speculation over whether BW might take a stake in the project (apparently they've done that before on other developments), but that is pure conjecture. The so-called "source" had nothing on that point...

I don't have the text either. The only text I can find is: "UK independent Premier Oil is in serious talks with Norway’s BW Offshore about the supply of a floating production, storage and offloading vessel for its $1.5 billion Sea Lion project off the Falkland Islands. Industry sources said SBM Offshore — which was originally expected to provide the 80,000 barrels per day FPSO, having completed a front-end engineering and design exercise — is understood to be out of the running. Premier dishes out Sea Lion 1...."

Some more enormous share purchases! A 300,000 and 250,000 purchase in rapid succession at 4.05 and 4.06. Judging by the spread at that time, these were very likely buys.

Just noticed there was a whopping delayed trade yesterday at 12.58, for 800,000 shares, priced at 41p/share. On balance it looks like a buy (at that time a sell was 40.65 and a buy 41p). How the hell anyone was able to do an over the counter trade for that value is a mystery to me though...

Hi mtahir. I have been in touch with Premier Oil on this very question over the past 24 hours. The current schedule is for development drilling to begin in 2020, with first oil by end-2022. However, timeline will not be finalized until project sanction (currently planned for next year). Hope that helps.

Bloody hell. Falklandinvestor;'s comments about a Premier visit to the falklands appeared long before anything was published anywhere else. Just check his posts and google it. Lambasting him for perhaps getting a few details wrong is like making perfect the enemy of good. It's Garbled for goodness sake. The name says it all.

Thanks Garbs. Doesn't affect anything I just said though....

It's an excellent find but....two years before drilling starts (as insinuated by those procurement timelines--note the date for the helicopter hangar). Premier are the Godot of oil companies.