Member Info for rpoodle

It's a very good point GreySquirrel. Premier had indicated on calls that the subsea LoI was going to be agreed months ago. The decision to choose Dril-quip, rather than Subsea One, might explain the delay (perhaps Subsea One were also more resistance about providing vendor finance?). We are at an interesting juncture in my view. Premier tend to be late with everything (Tolmount FID was supposed to be Q4 2017 for example), and they are being cautious about playing up Sea Lion in their trading statements. However, politics may also be playing a role here--Premier have publicly stated that they want FIG to reduce/remove the royalty charge on oil production, and playing down the prospects for Sea Lion could be useful motivating tactics to encourage FIG to act. Anyhow, overall, the Dril-quip LoI should mean that the vendor portion of the finance is pretty much all pencilled in. Export credit next....

Request for set aside of land for the Sea Lion development. It's not the green light, but it's another promising indication.

http://www.fig.gov.fk/assembly/component/jdownloads/send/346-07-27-june-2018/2220-104-18p-sea-lion-development-land-set-aside-gordon-lines-stanley

Interesting. Article from FT in March 2017 on Premier seeking funding from oilfield services companies for Sea Lion: "Schlumberger and Halliburton are among the companies Premier is approaching, added Mr Durrant." https://www.ft.com/content/a3018a9e-0017-11e7-96f8-3700c5664d30

In terms of what is holding things up, I'm guessing that Rockhopper are renegotiating the development carry with Premier (as only about a third of it will be used prior to first oil under current plans). They may well be then holding off on any updates until Premier's next scheduled trading update (on July 12th) and the news can then be released jointly. Appointment of lead bank etc can then be announced at the same time by both parties.

Surprised there's still no update on Sea Lion yet. I'm increasingly of the opinion that we will get an update, and possibly quite a major one, in tandem with Premier's next trading update (July 12th).

Kinda nice to see that five of the seven jobs within Premier's current vacancies are dedicated to Sea Lion

Cheers. I'm not turning my back on iii permanently--I'm just waiting for them to iron out the bugs (could be waiting a while). Not sure about other posters.

It appears this vacancy is now filled, but this was not posted on iii or lse previously (and I find these hiring ads quite encouraging) https://www.oilandgasjobsearch.com/Oil-and-Gas-Jobs/Inspector-Jobs/Turret-And-Hook-Up-Lead/Details/1292823

Thanks for sharing. He says Falkland Islands government will make sanction decision around middle of next year, which is the same as they've been saying for a while. His remarks on FID come before he gives a date, and FID will have to come before sanction whatever the case.

https://www.bordersandsouthern.com/media/pdf/AGM1.june2018.pdf

Hi all. News regarding a shift in regulation regarding the type of fuel ships are allowed to use has been circulating for weeks (in short, ships will be required to use much lower sulphur fuel) https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Biggest-Ever-Change-In-Oil-Markets-Could-Send-Prices-Higher.html What's not been noted is that this is potentially positive for Borders. The condensate in Darwin is exactly similar to the kind of distillate required to abide by the new regulations, which is something of an unforeseen bonus. It's not going to have any immediate impact on the share price, but will at least add to the appeal of Darwin in any farm out discussions. (As an aside, the oil in Sea Lion--although very different to Darwin's condensate--is also low sulphur, which is a positive for those Rockhopper/Premier shareholders among you.)

Up to you flockton. Borders are spending less than $2m a year, so that $8m has a while to run yet. The question is binary for this stock: will they get a farm out or won't they. If you think they will, you could be looking at 20p+ in double quick time. If not, it will run out of money in four years or so and you lose the lot. I'm a holder here because I feel the risk-reward is too good to ignore but it's your choice.

Not to be argumentative but I would have thought that an appraisal well on Darwin West would cost lots more than $40m. The previous wells cost something like $100m, and, even with lower costs now, Borders are planning to incorporate a sidetrack (so extra time and money) and then there are the mob/demob costs (which often run to the tens of millions). I actually spoke to Borders about a year or so ago over the phone and, though they were extremely cagey (over the top in my opinion), they did say that there was no way they would do a share offering to raise the necessary finance. On that point, it's also worth remembering that a massive equity raise would also massively dilute the company directors, who own something like 13% of all the company's shares (I forget exactly)....

Cheers for the added background info

Yep; there's no way Ocean Guardian could do the SFB. Ocean Valiant would be a maybe (it's slightly underspec for Darwin, but only slightly, and it might be possible to expand its drilling envelope by, for example, lengthening the chains--just like Diamond did with Ocean Guardian back in 2010). Regarding two rigs at the same time: I've heard the same thing (that only one rig can operate at a time), but I think it's absolutely conceivable that two could operate concurrently if added logistics are put in place (more space at the doc, more support vessels etc). All IMO of course...

Premier are doing a nice job of ensuring that costs are locked in now before they begin to rise. As Premier says in its annual report, " Premier has also signed Letters of Intent with a number of potential suppliers for its Sea Lion project to enable it to lock in service costs at attractive rates". I have been told by Rockhopper that this includes the day rate for the rig (though I still don't know which rig yet--Ocean Guardian could be a leading candidate again).

Running costs are not c.$35/b. That figure refers to the break even cost, which includes the $1.8bn capex. If it's like Sea Lion (and they do have similar break even costs), it will have running costs of around $15/b, plus another $10/b for leasing the FPSO. Hope that helps.

Cheers garbs. Good news may be connected to premier oil's end-year results next Thursday, but who knows

Is there a message missing here? Apologies, but what's the rumour? Good news but a delay in the Final Investment Decision?

Interesting stuff; cheers pijoe. Your comment on the chances of success for Darwin West chime a bit with my thinking. It's not that the 81% figure is wrong; but I think the lack of accompanying info is a tad dubious. Overall chances of success for an exploration well include more than just geological chances of hitting hydrocarbons (reservoir quality is usually part of the equation as well). Notwithstanding that, I do think DW will come in though. There's actually a ton to ponder in the announcement, much of which has not been discussed thus far. Take the numbers of wells and peak production. Recently Borders were talking about 7 wells on each block to produce 56,000 b/d (albeit that was for starters). Now they are saying just 5 wells on each block (and 10 in total) to produce a whopping 91,000 b/d! That's more than Sea Lion! It's quite the figure, given that Borders has not even done a flow test yet. Either way, despite the obvious caveats, it's going to turn heads. I totally take your point about a condensate discovery too. It's marginal stuff, but whenever I worry I remember that they actually reached agreement on commercial terms with a farm-in partner a few years back (the deal fell through for apparently unrelated reasons), so someone liked it! Anyhow, whatever the case, the independent evaluation will only help them find a partner, but nowt is guaranteed....