We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Hi everyone - stranger in the camp!
Just got a notice on my iPhone in the App Store of the Card Factory App update with performance improvements and wait for it..drum roll…click and collect! Finally.
I’ve got my 1 month badge now for being completely out of the stock market so I won’t be joining you on this journey but wish you all well.
I have been trying to break free for almost 12 months but couldn’t do it and was convinced that the only way out was to lose everything but no I am free!
I even managed 3 days straight this week to not even look at share prices!
Honestly guys try it, I have never felt better. I was truly addicted. Looking for things to sell to buy more shares.
Started off cashing my premium bonds and savings. Then retired and had a lump sum which ended up in.
Sold a house and vowed I wouldn’t put it in but I did - the lot.
Can’t remember exactly but had over 800,000 of these at one point OMG!
Anyhow I’m free and although retired going to buy another do it up house at auction - no longer a phone zombie!
Had a few beers so haven’t put much thought into this message - good luck guys but please have an exit strategy. So addictive this man.
Based on absolutely nothing I’m thinking that those shares were txfered as payment rather than £ to someone? (Administrators?)
I bought heavily into 4D two days before suspension dohhhh and no doubt like most people here have written this investment off but it would be nice to get something back.
Either way I wish they would just get on with it because it was the push I needed to pack in dealing with shares (gambling) and want to close my accounts down but can’t because of the share.
Morning BB/Check, I purposely haven’t posted until the weekend when the markets are closed because I wouldn’t want to influence anybody's decision making but the (most recent) reviews are awful and I wished I had looked at them before reinvesting.
Not sure about anybody else here but before me and the wife book any sort of holiday we always look at the recent reviews - especially trip-advisor and my point is that if I read those (recent) reviews I would not be booking anything with Saga!
The insurance side is just as bad, taking the payment and cost gets 5* but making any sort of claim is 1*.
Main complaint is that nobody is picking up the calls or replying to the emails?
Doesn’t make sense?
Don’t shoot the messenger guys. If it wasn’t for the fact that I like the people on this discussion board I most probably (and obviously wish I hadn’t) reinvested! Ha ha
Morning guys, so chuffed with myself selling up at £3+ and getting back in at £1.50 ish especially when it jumped to £1.80+ almost immediately. I thought I had found the bottom.
Lost a fortune since and are now out because I have lost faith. Why?
Saga reviews are terrible!
Shame, great bunch of guys on this board but at the end of the day we are all here to make money.
Here’s a selection:-
Cruise.
https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/travel.saga.co.uk
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Cruise_Review-d15691846-Reviews-Spirit_Of_Discovery
https://www.cruisecritic.co.uk/memberreviews/saga-holidays-cruises/cl/
https://www.worldofcruising.co.uk/reviews/saga%20cruises
Insurance.
https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/www.saga.co.uk
https://smartmoneypeople.com/saga-reviews/product/car-insurance
https://www.reviews.io/company-reviews/store/saga
More good news.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rhine-water-depth-up-crisis-levels-could-normalise-this-week-2022-09-26/
Not sure if this ever affected any of the Saga cruises but there was a very real risk that passengers were going to have to disembark at the shallowest points of the Rhine and transferred (on a bus) up the river to another river boat.
Anyhow every bit helps and the recent rain fall is another plus to Saga.
“ Alliance News) - Carnival PLC on Friday reported a surge in third-quarter revenue and a narrowed loss, due to high demand throughout the period.”
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/CCL/carnival-records-surge-in-quarterly-revenue-on-robust-demand-5iacuz85aopbf0a.html
Surge in third quarter revenue, due to high demand..
Fingers crossed we get a slice of this.
Yes! - Extremely accurate Banbury as I would expect from you with your qualifications.
My only saving grace was that I made almost the same amount from Wrks last Friday so my portfolio balance hasn’t really changed. Thank goodness.
With the greatest respect Banbury I don’t think anyone is going to take any tips off you seriously (or me for that matter) but thanks for letting me know what i should keep away from. ha ha.
Here is a little bit of advice from an old guy anyway..
Everybody hates to see a share in their portfolio in the red.
My advice is to sell it and buy it back - simple!
If you are patient and time it right you benefit not only financially but emotionally.
There are risks of course but there is nothing worse every morning seeing a big red loss - it grinds you down.
My portfolio entry for Saga as I type this in shows a nice green profit of just over a grand and this is much nicer that a red 40 grand! {smiley face}.
Hi Banbury, well well well what a week.
Like you I sold out as it was dropping because I thought it had more to go.
Sold half at £1.07 and the remainder at £1.02 ouch!
That’s the bad news but the good news (there is no good news) is that my loss equalled the gain I made on Wrks last week so I don’t feel too bad.
The moral of the story I suppose is have a balanced portfolio.
Bought them all back yesterday so my new average is 92p.
Like you (and I think most people here now) I’m beginning to think that this is all a big ploy by RDH to take this private - hopefully £1+ and that is why I am now here. GLA
Ok, I have posted this table several times now but just sit for a few moments and take it in…
Saga MCAP over the years.
Mcap.......Share Price.
£1.35 Billion n/a << 2004 Sold by Sir R to his Management.
£2.1 Billion 1504p << 2014 IPO (£1.85).
£3.4 Billion 2436p << May 2016 (£3.03).
£840.0m 602p << Jan-Jun 2019. (Average).
£560.0m 400p << July 2019-Jan 2020. (Average).
£168.0m 120p << Feb-Oct 2020. (Average/Covid).
£370.0m 265p << Rejected PE Offer (33p old price).
£314.2m 225p << Oct 2020 - Jan 2021. (Average).
£434.0m 310p << Feb - Dec 2021. (Average).
£294.0m 220p << Jan - Sept 2022. (Average).
£127.0m 91p << ** TODAY ** (29/9/2022).
Now ask yourself a question :-
Do you really think Roger the son of Sidney De Haan (who founded Saga in 1951) is going to let this flounder?
This is his fathers legacy and he is going to do everything in his power to respect that.
Everybody (who is shorting) keeps going on about the debt as if it is something new or unexpected.
There is nothing wrong with debt providing it is being managed which Sagas is.
The debt has low interest rates fixed before inflation hit.??
£516m - 2 loans to finance 2 ships - so there is a corresponding asset - last repayments in 2032.
?£150m bond due for repayment in May 2024 (fixed rate 3.375%).
?£250m bond, repayable in July 2026 (fixed rate 5.5%).
?
Covenants only trigger if the company is loss making - and we have guidance of £20-30m profit.
?SAGA has £180m cash, so could repay the first bond if needed and a £50m (undrawn) bank facility. ?
I’m not saying anything new here or anything that most of you don’t know already but it’s times like this that you have to be strong.
I still see this as a buying opportunity and managed to get more today at under 90p.
All just IMO guys and like most now sitting on a heavy paper loss but that’s the nature of this game and I am convinced that this will come good.
I think (once again!) we will just have to agree to disagree on this one Banbury.
You can’t just divide the current share price by 15 to get the “old price”.
Ie
Stage1
1,122,003,328 (1.1 BILLION) shares BEFORE dilution.
Stage2
2,093,921,536 (2.1 BILLION) shares AFTER dilution.
Stage3
139,594,769 (140 MILLION) shares AFTER 15:1 Consolidation. Ie The ‘NEW’ (current) share price.
If we simply divide the current share price by 15 (which most people here do) that converts the price to the mid stage2 completely ignoring the extra billion shares. It needs converting AGAIN to get back to the ‘OLD’ share price Stage1.
Hi Amulet/Stille(33)
Not upto date but hope this helps.
Version 2 Draft 1
AML Share Price Table.
Column A. CURRENT Share Price.
Column B. Share Price as a result of Dilution 3.
Column C. Share Price as a result of Dilution 2.
Column D. Share Price as a result of Dilution 1.
Column E. Share Price before Dilutions. (IPO £19)
Column F. MCAP.
.....A....B....C....D......E.......F.
£3.65 18p 23p 28p £1.86 £419M
£3.81 19p 24p 29p £1.93 £438M
£3.97 20p 25p 30p £2.00 £456M <-D1
£4.60 23p 29p 35p £2.32 £528M
£4.76 24p 30p 36p £2.40 £547M
£5.55 28p 35p 42p £2.80 £638M
£6.35 32p 40p 46p £3.20 £729M
£7.14 35p 45p 54p £3.60 £821M
£7.30 36p 46p 55p £3.68 £839M
£7.46 37p 47p 57p £3.76 £857M
£7.62 38p 48p 58p £3.84 £875M
£7.78 39p 49p 59p £3.92 £893M
£7.93 40p 50p 60p £4.00 £910M <-D2/D3
£8.73 44p 55p 66p £4.40 £1.00B
£9.52 48p 60p 72p £4.80 £1.09B
£10.31 51p 65p 78p £5.20 £1.18B <-Pr Cov
£11.11 55p 70p 84p £5.60 £1.28B
£11.91 59p 75p 90p £6.00 £1.37B
£12.69 63p 80p 96p £6.40 £1.46B
£13.48 67p 85p 102p £6.80 £1.55B
£14.17 70.85p <<20:1 Consolidation 14/12/20.
£14.28 71p 90p 108p £7.20 £1.64B
£15.07 75p 95p 114p £7.60 £1.73B
£15.87 79p 100p 120p £8.00 £1.82B
£23.80 119p 150p 180p £12.00 £2.74B
£31.74 159p 200p 240p £16.00 £3.65B
£37.61 188p 237p 280p £19.00 £4.33B <- IPO
Useful Notes:-
IPO = Initial Public Offering ie the AML Stock Market Launch. (£19 £4.33B) Sept 2018 Total AML Shares in Issue = 228,002,890.
D1 = Dilution 1. (30p) April 2020.
Additional 1,292,011,560 Shares.
New Total Shares in Issue = 1,520,014,450
D2 = Dilution 2. (50p) June 2020.
Additional 304,000,000 Shares.
New Total Shares in Issue =1,824,014,450.
D3 = Dilution 3. (50p) 7th Dec 2020.
Additional 250,000,000 Placing and 224,657,287 Consideration Shares.
New Total Shares in Issue = 2,298,671,737.
Consolidation. 20:1 14th Dec 2020.
New Total Shares in Issue = 114,933,587.
Pr Cov = PreCovid Share price was £5.20 in Jan 2020 with a MCAP of £1.18 Billion.
MCAP = Market Capitalisation (Company’s worth)
Roughly.
Before dilution/consolidation there were 1,122,003,328 shares.
Now there are 139,594,769 shares.
Share price @93p so Mcap £130m
Divide this by 1,122,003,328 is
Drum roll….
11.5p
Regardless of the current share price, everything boils down to your answer to a very simple question which is “Do you believe in the Company that you are investing in”?
I bought heavily into Saga @£1.56 and again yesterday when it fell to £1.35 because I do.
That 46,250 @ £1.07 this morning is also mine taking my holding to just shy of 200,000 shares.
If this mornings RNS cast doubt on the Cruise ship recovery I would be worried because of the massive burden of having these monsters sat idle in the dock (or sailing half empty) but that is not the case.
Take a chill pill guys, this is a buying opportunity if I ever I saw one.
As the great man himself says “buy when there is blood on the streets”
Yes PC and that is why the share price is £1.35!
Everyone to their own but I see this as an opportunity and one that I’m not going to miss.
Fast forward 12 months and everyone reading this now (real time) will regret not buying more at this ridiculous price.
Hey, this is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong of course but it feels right.
Less than 12 weeks ago the board reported that the group expected to generate a 2022/23 Underlying Profit Before Tax of £35-50m compared to a prior year loss of £7m.
They also announced that they had simplified and reduced the revolving credit facility from £100m to £50m.
This doesn’t sound like a Company that’s in trouble to me and I’m happy with my investment.
In fact so much so that on Friday I increased my holding substantially.
Let’s see.
Sold out of here a few weeks to double up on WRKS and SAGA for no other reason than they had both dropped massively and IMO I thought oversold.
I knew the dates the dates of the Trading Updates so this was always my plan and my gut feeling was correct because WRKS paid out big time on Friday. One out of two so far and IMHO I think SAGA is going to do the same on Tuesday .
It was always a risk selling but thankfully I have managed to buy back my CARD shares on Friday for the same price I sold them so all good.
The reason I’m back?
These figures (Especially the Net debt) :-
FY18 (31st January 2018).
924 Stores.
Total Group revenue £422.1m?
EBITDA £86.1m.?
Profit before tax £72.6m?
Net debt £161.3m??
FY19 (31st January 2019).
974 Stores.
Total Group revenue £436.0m?
EBITDA £89.4m?
Profit before tax £66.6m?
Net debt £141.3m??
FY20 (31st January 2020).
1024 Stores.
Total Group revenue £451.0m?
EBITDA £81.2m?
Profit before tax £63.8m?
Lease liabilities of £148.0m
Net debt £143.1m.
FY21 (31st January 2021).?
1016 Stores.
Revenue £285.1m (COVID).
?EBITDA £47.0m?
LOSS before tax £16.4m?
Lease liabilities of £144.9m?
Deferred Rent+Vat £35.0m?
Net debt £107.7m
FY22 (31st January 2022)?
Revenue £364.4 m?
EBITDA £85.6m?
Profit before tax £11.1m.?
Lease liabilities £120.2m?
Deferred Rent £7.0m?
Deferred Vat £0m?
Net debt £74.2m
Don’t know about anybody else but I’m loving these drops and think at £1.40 Saga is an absolute steal.
I made a decision a few weeks ago to well and truly stuff my boots with these and if anyone needs reminding this is why:-
July 2021 issue of a new five-year £250.0m bond2 (due 2026) and use of the proceeds to repay the balance of £70.0m term loan (point 3 above) and £100.0m off the existing £250m bond1 due 2024. The remainder of the new bond2 (£76m after costs) added to the available Cash.
31 Jan 2022, net debt was £729.0m, £31.2m lower than at Jan 2021. Available Cash now £186.6m, and an undrawn revolving credit facility of £100.0m.
It must be remembered though that the majority of the net debt is asset backed with the ships.
June 2022, simplified revolving credit facility with reduction in commitment from £100m to £50m.
- Cash 'burn' for the Travel businesses during Covid when both ships were confined to dock was £5.9m per month.
- Two mid size cruise ships, each capable of generating £40m EBITDA per year (£80m pa total).
- Mainly over 50's customer base, with strong loyalty, & fastest growing & most wealthy component of the population.
- Approximately 80% of SAGA’s underlying profit is from the Insurance and estimated to be valued alone at £900m.
- MCAP Today (Sept 2022) £197m compared to £560m in Jan 2020 (preCovid), £150m (during Covid),£2.1bn in 2014 (IPO) and its peak of £3.4 Billion in May 2016.
- On track to return to an underlying profit for the 2022/23 financial year.
- The Group expects to reduce leverage in the second half of the year and, when it falls due, repay the £150m due on the 2024 bond1 from Available Cash.
I agree PI.
No doubt like most people reading this I monitor both Card and Wrks share price closely.
Until recently they were always very similar taking turns to edge in front of each other.
That was until Wrks issued a badly written RNS on 8th Aug.
1. They didn’t declare the previously mentioned £16 m “available cash”.
2. They increased and extended the bank facility to £30.0m and extends the expiration date to the end of November 2025.
This was interpreted as a profit warning and on that very same day the share price dropped 16p (34%) to 30p were it has languished since.
Truth is that it was just a badly written RNS and they either didn’t feel the need to mention the available cash or just plain forgot and also should have stated that the bank facility was undrawn and just good management being prudent.
This has all been clarified today.
That made me laugh out loud cuvio ha ha
Too many good points in that RNS to list but the dividend part alone is definitely worth noting :-
“In light of the strong performance in FY22, the robust balance sheet, and its confidence in the future prospects of the business the Board will be recommending a 2.4 pence per share which will be paid on 24 November 2022 to shareholders on the register on the record date of 4 November 2022.
We hope to maintain the cadence of twice yearly dividend payments thereafter and intend to resume a progressive dividend policy in due course once conditions stabilise.”