The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
https://twitter.com/Bakedbe51247544/status/1414214850172043266?s=19
Chris - my understanding is nothing is happening onsite. The Weatherford logging truck left site last Sunday (roofers confirmed from a local contact of his).
And if we refer back to the last RNS: "Following completion of the CHLP and VSP survey, the processing and interpretation of the data acquired is expected to take approximately two weeks and will help inform the completion, well clean-up and EWT operations on the Kirkham Abbey Formation for the WNB-1Z well."
So I read we are in the "processing & interpretation" phase - 1wk gone, 1wk to go.
I understand road closed as of Monday so expect kit arriving next wk.
I'm happy with £5 by end 2023 which I reckon is realistic. I'll hold until its taken out. I'm confident they will pay sufficient dividends to refund anyone in under 150p so its a huge win win. Done it before can do it again. And he's evolved his strategy. AA is a born winner just follow the talent. Goodnight.
Paul,
I've worked in the executive & tech recruitment sector within O&G /Process Eng & you are quite correct; anyone worth their salt would want to know specifically what they are working on & are v unlikely to join a "shell" company with no firm assets. Coupled with the fact the talent they are recruiting isn't cheap & will burn through their (relatively) meagre cash resources pretty quickly.
So this points to the likelihood a deal has been agreed and the DD & financial structure is being worked on.
Having said that - the O&G space had been decimated in the last 12-15 months so their is a large talent pool who are either available or certainly concerned for their job security. Structural changes have/are happening as a result of COVID that are above and beyond simple cyclical events common in the industry.
I've decided to pass on the Primary bid option for this placing.
I've huge confidence in AA as a 400%ROI investor from RRE - and as a result I've a sizeable position Ave 121p which I'm happy to hold for the duration.
The fact there is absolutely no visibility on raise & relist price means I cant in any way appraise whether its a worthwhile allocation of funds.
What will relist price be? Any ideas?
Hi Rubey,
That's fine you don't agree with me no issues.
However I network my investments so I've heard it direct so I'm quite comfortable. I have to say I was a little surprised. I've seen screenshots of unresolved EA permit applications relating to WNB back in January on Twitter - but I discounted it as fake by protestors etc. Appears not.
Also - Wressle isn't an RBD asset - I think it's UJO. I've no interest in UJO so I'm not aware of their permit situation.
We are 100% sure the EWT proceeding is not connected with the FDP planning process.
Let's be clear. It's simple. They have full planning permission for EWT at WNA, and all the permissions at WNB bar an EA permit which I understand is causing the delay. Once that us obtained the EWT will proceed.
And the WNB-2 well is fully permitted, as is the WNB-2 EWT(once the WNB EA permit is sorted.
I had this direct from one of the BoD of RBD on a zoom call 4wks ago.
If its a special divi then the BoD may well set the ex div date as the date of the RNS so divi hustlers can't get onboard. But under normal circumstances the ex divi date is set in the future so it's clear. As long as you are on the share register at close of play of ex div day you get the divi. Even if you sell out the day after. But remember - it takes T+2 days for LSE trades to process - so if xd date is Thursday - need to buy on Monday. But Tuesday - you've missed the boat.
Interested to gauge thoughts on the relist price likelihood.
I see around 20m shares being issued around £2 - so I can see a relist price around £3 - so a MCap around £120m considering the EBITA cashflow generated.
Clearly AA strategy is to significantly increase production from the present levels & acquiring an experienced operational team will facilitiate more M&A activity
It's a weird hold this one but let's look at the evidence. Top tier management team come back together with clearly "unfinished business" as for many - Faroe taken out for much less than it was perhaps worth. Same with RRE. But that was in choppy times in the O&G E&P space.
So why the rush to get "any" deal over the line? Understandabke but O&G investors need 5-10yrs timescales in my humble opinion so considering the time lost due to COVID (where the M&A space froze for 6-9 months) we are realistically probably 6-9 months into LBE lifespan in normal times. And we've likely got 2 or 3 deals in a 5yr timescale.
I just feel strongly - anyone investing here has to be super pragmatic & accept the unusual situation of these investment companies. Huge periods of inactivity then boom. Action. Its like an elevator that only stops at floor 12, 62 and 120 in a high-rise building. Whereas a producer like GKP /BP stops at every floor.
So fine - take the mickey out of HH. He honestly won't care. He will deliver. Guaranteed. I'm in here for £1m ROI from 1.2% at the moment.
Good luck all holders.
Procrastinated with RRE entered at £5 sold at £18 post sale. Haven't made the mistake here. Positioned heavily at £1.20 ave. So for me just sit & hold for next x yrs. What's realistic? I'm not greedy so £5 by 1.1.25 will suit me just fine. £500k thanks bye.
All these tanker life cycle calcs are a red herring.
They are going to construct a pipeline to transport the crude & gas to the local refineries. The trucking is the initial transportation medium to prove up the resource & production - but the taper-off is because the pipeline will come online.
Man well. I reckon your estimate of late Jan start /data by April is pretty accurate. They've planning permission for EWT but it appears (albeit muddled) they need EA permission still. But that should be a formality.
The WNA-2 appraisal well was announced on 17th June 2019. The updated volumetrics for WN (not CPR this was operator Rathlin numbers) were RNS on 11th November 2019. So that gives an idea of timescales.
I reckon they will of commissioned a revised CPR as drilling activities have completed & any EWT won't add to volumetrics.
I'm of the opinion they won't drill another well at WNB as they will sell out (most likely) after EWT at WNB.
It's clear to me the reason they never EWT WNA was the geologists told them there was likely much better reservoir characteristics at the WNB site, which the JV have RNS'd to indeed be the case.
Silly conspiracy theory types use a lack of WNA EWT in 2019 to point to some kind of negative /cover-up. No. It was an operational decision. Helped significantly by S&S securing control over the asset & strategy through the "proving-up" process
Excellent interview. V similar to RRE - what nobody has picked up on is he specialises in late-life assets, extending their life with clever tech - then managing the decommissioning. Now there is a new angle with huge government support. CO2 storage. So on essence eliminating huge decom liabilities by "flipping" it into a storage asset. So he's getting paid for disposing of near empty fields - but then remarketing them as empty storage facilities. Genius. I reckon that's the business model. Hence the transition element of KIST.
Chimney Blue,
Agree entirely. But as you will be aware many UJO holders are short term trader mentality types. Granted there are some LTH but the shenanigans that's occurred previously I feel makes them nervous holders - hence the groundswell movement to evacuate even at a discount sale price. Not a strategy I would want if I was holding UJO
I've an excellent contact who had his drone up at West Newton today. They are drilling as of this afternoon. So unlikely any kind of RNS imminent. Will require drill then wireline into the Kirkham Abbey formation. So looks like a number of days away from that.