Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
In the end it will all come down to how much of the company the cornerstones are willing to give away to the new investors for a given amount of investment. That will be the negotiations and the result will be the share price. So I’m agreeing that the current share price isn’t actually important in the negotiations. If the raise was via an open placing to the market and private investors then the current share price would absolutely be marker.
the point in asking was not to get an answer but to try to put you in the shoes of glencore, la mancha and orion. part of successful negotiation is knowing who you’re negotiating with and their motivations. what is it they want and what are they willing to come to the table with. these players are not *****cats, but the key is, they will want a deal. they absolutely know the value here and will not be giving it away. they will want to maintain their position with as much equity as they can.
Maybe one thing we can all agree on is no one is here to loose money. I don’t know, but surely if this goes to admin, everyone currently involved looses to various degrees. So those at the negotiating table will be trying to find a solution (you would hope). The evidence is that we are not in administration at this point. There are a thousand books out there on the art negotiating and even the odd course or two. All will say knowledge, preparation and planning are key. However, some will say plans are the first to disintegrate on initial contact. Flexibility and compromise are needed.
The analogy I thought of was the UN trying to formulate a resolution. Virtually impossible!
Back to the thread title.
It seems all types of negotiations go down to the wire. This being no different. All we know about the negotiations is that the company needs to secure a lot of money. Other than that we don’t have any clue about how or what is being negotiated or with whom. We don’t know how much all of the parties are willing to get a deal done, that all would be happy with, or are they just looking out for themselves.
We may get an insight this week as I expect an RNS to be issued about interest deferment / wavers. If granted there is still some hope as a deal is being struck. The RNS after that would be about interim funding. Again if available then hope is alive. If the company is still alive then the BIGGEST RNS, the full financial package. That’s when we find out the we have all been thrown out of the plane without a parachute.
You have to admit that JM and SR are extremely brilliant financiers in that they have managed to deceive five banks, two export credit agencies and three cornerstones not to mention institutional and retail investors, you and I out of a vast amount of money. They magnificently pulled the wool over all our eyes. Or do you like me think they were just out of their depth and were blind to what was happening in front of them. We will never know the true story as the embarrassment would be too hard for all the parties. I know that I was blinded and am know embarrassed that I’m still holding.
Since 2nd October, everything anyone has done has made this situation worse. The company’s mismanagement is staggering. Hats off to those fickle shareholders in recognising the mismanagement, but in them leaving it crashed the shares. That’s made the new management’s job harder. The old management rushed to the market with the bad news having no quantifiable figures, other than a finger in the air, of the true shortfall. The new management had to revise the figures prompting another share price crash. So they’re trying to negotiate from a woeful start. Impossible! The mine will be finished but the terms now will be dire. I know that I haven’t got a clue what the negotiations will produce. The key has always been what the cornerstones are will to give away. Currently any new investors will be getting this for a song. I’ve put my calculator away for now as I’m just hoping for the company survival.
I’m still holding.
Mv01,
I’ll counter that with my own example. Your example is on/off, which is fine. My example would be empty/full.
Take a glass and fill it. Empty or full. In between neither empty or full but just a transitional state from empty to full.
In the RNS there was also the obligatory warning of doom.
Existing shareholders should note that whilst the Company continues to work closely with its major shareholders and senior creditors on a full funding solution, there can be no guarantee that a refinancing and restructuring solution will complete (including any interim funding). Even if it does, the conclusion of any such solution is unlikely to lead to a positive outcome for existing shareholders, noteholders and creditors of the Company. Further, if it becomes apparent that an interim and/or a fully funded solution is unlikely to be found, the Company will have to look at all potential options which could include putting the group’s projects in care and maintenance, liquidation of assets, and or starting formal administration procedures in the UK in relation to the Company.
Given that the vast majority of shareholders will have shares above 80p it was always going to be a negative outcome.
A new day so I’ve re read yesterday’s RNS together with the previous ones. I’m not seeing a vast change in position from the 19th February RNS. Yes, the company is deep trouble, but we already knew that, and has a distinct possibility of going into administration, but we already knew that. AND, yes an increased possibility.
The 19th February RNS talks about Estimate at Completion (“EAC”) and Cost-to-Complete (“CTC”). The EAC being US$1,004 million, comprised of US$479 million spent up to date, US$52 million is outstanding to trade creditors, US$15 million for critical activities during the slowdown period and US$4 million pre-first metal mining costs, and a CTC of US$454 million.
Yesterday’s RNS takes a different view, so not truly comparable. It talks about the money needed and current liabilities. So does EAC equal liabilities plus new funding?
Liabilities are US$418 million, comprised of US$241 million in senior debt, a US$27 million cost over-run facility (“COF”), US$68 million to trade creditors and US$82 million of convertible loan notes, and a restructuring solution for its existing royalties arrangements.
New full funding required to complete construction and bring the operation to positive cashflow is US$567 – 592 million. This consists of the Project CTC of US$454 million, as announced on 19 February 2024, plus US$89 million of pre-production costs, ramp up costs, general & administration and working capital required to bring the operation to positive cash flow, and US$25 - 50 million that relates to transaction costs and a minimum cash contingency.
So EAC of US$418 million plus US$592 million US$1,010 million.
I must be missing something, please explain! Genuine answers only.
Not the rampers or de rampers or anyone on this chat. Most are genuine with their beliefs.
The company in August last year was saying all good, by late September catastrophe. What in six weeks had changed? Someone in the company was hiding the truth.
Https://www.mining.com/web/benchmark-to-launch-green-nickel-prices-on-thursday/
I wonder if it’ll have any impact on the global trade?
https://www.mining.com/web/global-commodities-holdings-to-work-with-ice-to-create-nickel-contract/
At this current share price any funding package and resulting equity raise doesn’t bare thinking about as the dilution will be massive. They will need a sp north of 5p for even a palatable effort.