Having given myself I stern talking to, I now recognise that the final dividend in itself is 4% of the share price and that the dividend for the year is 6.3%. For goodness sake this is not failure and this part of my portfolio should simply be watched and appreciated for what it is.
Clearly, I withdraw yesterdays guess. I was under the influence of strong substance at the time. Its tough to know what to do with these shares. Although I believe that insurers are a reasonable place at the moment for the lower risk part of a portfolio as I see it, RSA business model seems a little narrow compared to say Aviva where I also have a holding. Ummm off to contemplate and remind myself that shares are a long term investment and that diversity is good.
Results due tomorrow morning. There seems to be no market commentary about, so my guess. Operating profit was £668m in 2009. 2010 half year results were about the same as 2009 but I expect there to have been an improvement in the 2nd half of the year (higher premiums usually mean more margin). Also turnover was up 10% at the half year allowing room to manage premiums. So I am thinking 2010 operating profit in the region of £710m. This gives very little room for increasing the dividend but RSA does appear to have an aggressive appoach to setting dividend so I see a small increase from 5.33 to 5.48. Giving a total dividend of 8.6p for 2010. This will produce a steady increase in share price leading up to divi cut off day 3rd March to 1.49 followed by a retrace to 1.28 in the two weeks following. You may block me tomorrow for being an idiot and miles from the mark. For gods sake DYOR and all of the above is gathered only from the Rothers wishfull thinking crystal ball and is IMHO. I have no information from RSA to support the above. So why have I bothered? Bored I think and like the sight of my own postings!
Any guesses on profit (or loss!) for the 12 months? Bonz1957 have I done for you?
A big week ahead. RSA has had a nice steady rise. IMHO I am expecting good results for all insurers as a result of higher premiums, improved stock market and consequently stronger balance sheets. RSA and Aviva noth report in the next couple of weeks. So maybe a steady rise next week until Thursday. Then strong balance sheets could lead to more merger activity. Dyor
I am hoping that these shares can enjoy another upwards push before or just after the results are announced. I can see no reason for poor results. I will then be considering selling and adding to my investment in Aviva whose results are due a week or two later. On a three or five year chart Aviva lags behind RSA by between 30% and 40%. I can see no reason for this, it does seem as to me IMHO that Aviva is the most under valued share so that is where my money belongs. This doesnt stop RSA beng a great company to invest in. Its dividend is excellent. Any views?
FTSE not 'fuse' damn spell check!
I am in Aviva as well as RSA, I really think that the reporting season is going to be an exciting time for INS co holders. There are so many positive signals around. Have charted insurers against fuse over past 3 years and even with recent increases they are lagging behind. Expect increased profits, dividends, exciting plans for growth and possible takeovers. IMHO dyor. Bonz1957 if you reply and I disappear, will someone call the police.