Member Info for rossannan

Hey Hantsome

Beware of Twitter rampers.

CarsCoffee

“the political thing will not be an issue once oil is found”

I can see that it won’t be an issue if no commercial oil is found. I don’t think it goes away if commercial oil is found. I strongly suspect that BPC, like CERP/LGO before it, has now turned into a PI trap, but I’ll reserve judgement until we see the next RNS.

Symbol1

I think that it all comes down to license renewal. We have been told that “The risk of the Etinde licence potentially expiring in January 2021 is considered low to medium at the current time.” (Annual Report 09/11)

So we should know where we stand pretty soon. A bit binary for my taste but this should move sharply north on licence renewal alone. Otherwise it’s game over and we fall back under 2p.

Hamz74

Oil, I think (and hope), but it would be great to hear from an expert.

No harm in that. Everything else seems to be coming together for TRIN right now.

CarsCoffee

I guess that’s my point. If it is not flow tested in even one location, however good wireline may be these days, and bearing in mind the political issues, how much of a premium will it command if BPC’s priority (any maybe its only realistic option) is to offload?

Obadhia

Because without flow testing, can we really talk about barrels at all?

Obadhia

But is P1 even going to be flow tested?

(in pence per share after all the dilution and with all the uncertainty around what BPC, or anyone who wanted to buy them out, would be able to do with it)

ab76

TRIN were under the impression that offshore was going to be included in the legislation (see 07/10 RN,S which reflects what is in your 05/10 E&Y document), so since it hasn’t made it into the legislation it should presumably be considered dead for now.

ab76

“and hopefully also for off-shore”

Wasn’t offshore taken out of the legislation? Have to say that I am surprised and a little disappointed not to have had an SPT update from TRIN now that the legislation is in force. They previously outlined their understanding of how what was proposed would affect them. They should be updating this now that the legislation is actually in force (although they may be waiting for the mid-Jan update, I guess).

SuperRoty

“days away”

Can you be more specific?

battleja

There is the question of what debt PERE has, what debt Minto has, what further CAPEX has to be funded over and above normal running costs etc. And was it bad luck or carelessness that lost PERE 22% of Minto? The CEO took a salary cut as I recall, but I believe his salary is still a significant enough percentage of PERE’s tiny MCAP. All still very opaque. Against that, there is that tiny MCAP and it certainly invites multi bag speculation. But was last week’s raise the last one we’ll see? I very much doubt it. Still, PERE is staying on my watchlist!

And how!

battleja

Minto should be on a trajectory to making decent money down the line at least. There are two levels here though, the Minto level and the PERE level and at each level the financial arrangements are complex. The question whether Minto is making enough of a profit for PERE to eventually make a profit remains unanswered, but PERE is certainly highly geared into success at Minto, even now with its measly 11 per cent. It would be great to have enough information to figure out where the tipping point for PERE is here in terms of Minto profits and/or the copper price. And figure out if there will need to be raise after raise in the meantime at either level. Remember that any reassurance on that front from a BoD usually turns out to be more of an aspiration than a prediction. And are you sure that where PERE now is and how it got there reflects that well on the CEO?

mysteryguy

Where do you get 50/50 from? Even the odds of geological success are only 35% with the odds of commercial success being significantly lower than that.

It would be great to have enough figures to help us work out how long it will be before the next raise...

KTRB

“Spin some cash out to other shares with higher risk and you'll appreciate OO security.”

Wise words. When the downside is limited, the upside usually takes care of itself.

Chartmy

You might be right.

Not for much longer at this rate.