Member Info for rossannan

PTMS My point is that the netbacks even for 600+bopd and rising don�t come anywhere close to justifying CERP�s current �35m+ MCAP. Not even onceatrader could persuade the BB to believe that (you would hope). The more interesting conversation, particularly for LTHs, is about where the added value is coming from. Goudron production is increasingly a red herring.

Lancygeo Not as much as they are for TRIN�s c.2750bopd or TXP�s c.1750bopd, but if you thought this was all about production you�d presumably be invested in one or both of them instead?

Garnhiem. Nice and neat, meaning that CERP’s production is now the main component of the monthly total and that, at least at a few points in the year, these bulletins will give us some advance notice of any major developments.

but I have to admit that FastBase seems by far and away the one most likely to do it for us. Becoming skeptical about the other two.

HH Thanks for that explanation - makes this a slightly more useful indicator going forward, assuming that LK sticks to his Q by Q plan.

Confirmation of spud of this year�s third well on 30/03/18 (TABLE 2D): http://www.energy.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/MEEI-Consolidated-Monthly-Bulletins-January-March-2018-1.pdf Not sure why there isn�t any mention of this year�s second well, the initial well on the Forest Reserve WD-8 block that was due to spud mid-March (see 14/03/18 RNS). Have emailed the company about that.

Still like to have a look at these when they come out, even though they are always very much in arrears. Would be interested to know why March 2018 IPSC production has dropped off a cliff - has another operator surrendered or converted their IPSC? http://www.energy.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/MEEI-Consolidated-Monthly-Bulletins-January-March-2018-1.pdf

LGO-fan He just needs to stick with it and deploy it elsewhere (Bonasse, Icacos) and the figures will be all the selling story he needs.

TCGLOVER No, as I said I bought in at an average of just under 2.7p and sold at an average of just over 6.6p. If you don’t believe me just check my posts because I posted when I bought and posted when I sold.

LGO-fan I think you have to let the figures speak for themselves. For an individual well there is a strong initial effect and then it drops off but the net effect over time across the field is pretty impressive. WF hasn’t kicked in yet but despite that LK is not just maintaining but increasing production using low cost techniques, this one in particular. Remember how much money NR used to chuck at Goudron just to pretty much stand still?

In fact it was just under 2.7p. Nearly bought in at 2p right at close of business on his very first day - he was such a breath of fresh air right from the off.

willowpillow CERP helped to fund it in the first place as I got in at an average of 2.7p not that long after LK arrived and then out at an average of just over 6.6p a few months later.

Vmax Why is it relevant whether or not a poster has shares? All that matters is whether that poster is genuinely interested in CERP. Prolific posting would certainly suggest that is the case. If only CERP shareholders posted on here it would pretty much be a one way conversation. I�m certainly interested in CERP, just not in investing in it until nearer to the end of the year. I made a considered decision to stick the money in TXP instead, on the basis that TXP should pop first. Might work out for me, might not - LK is certainly capable of surprises - but if it does work out for me I will then buy a ticket for the SWP party. That is my road map. So would be silly of me to take my eye off CERP in the meantime.

LGO-fan LK may not be a patient man (and that’s no bad thing because over the longer term macro factors outwith his control mean that he needs to make hay while the sun shines) but he’s clearly expecting a modicum of patience from CERP’s shareholders. That’s the whole point of the road map. All this impatience just makes solid progress look like a series of disappointments when the benefit of CF+ is that there’s no need for impatience. All good things come to those who wait but I think you’ll need to get a bit closer to 2019 first.

offerman There�s probably a few more % lurking on ADVFN, iii etc.

louis007 What�s your timescale for that 8p plus?

joebop It’s not a blame game, it’s about recognising how much better the previous BoD could have done so that you appreciate the potential under this BoD. Or, in other words, by giving too much credit to NR you obscure what a game changer LK has already been (LIND under control, Goudron under control, Spain under control, Schroders, CF+) and will continue to be down the line. I have a (very) long list of things that I didn’t like about NR’s approach and LK has now singled out and addressed most, if not all, of them. Just one example, which was nothing to do with a lack of available capital on NR’s part: I spent a lot of time on here arguing with onceatrader about the viability of the proposed new Mayaro wells (and on that score I was pretty much in a minority of one). It seemed clear to me from the data (from wells that NR had recompleted in the Mayaro) and NR’s own costings that these new Mayaro wells would be at best marginally viable. I think NR himself began to have doubts about them because, even after he had diluted us (possibly more than once), to pay for them, it really was dead slow and stop. Remember Treegate etc.? NR did eventually press the button but once LK appeared on the scene he called time on the whole enterprise as the first order of business. LK is not some kind of superhero but he is very good at his job and that, as it turns out, was and is all that CERP needed.

joebop Listen to the interviews and read the RNSs. LK chooses his words carefully and stays classy, but he and his team clearly inherited a lot of wrongs that needed to be put right, not just in terms of finance and strategy but on and in the ground. I would go as far as to suggest that until LK came along it had, by comparison, been amateur hour, with a real disconnect between London and Trinidad. LK talks about this disconnect in one of the early interviews and it was one of the first wrongs that he put right.

LGO-fan Indeed, no-one really knows what the level of WF success will be but on the current trajectory and all the available information, the low case looks like a pretty reasonable EOY 2018 assumption to me. That would be a solid achievement but hardly a game changer as the market is surely already assuming that LK will hit the low case, give or take. The market would though give significant extra credit for carrying that momentum right through 2019 - continued WF success and progress in the SWP could be quite a cocktail for 2019. Add in the big deal at some point this year or next year and it all gets very interesting indeed. The really great thing about LK, as you point out, is that his sound approach to financial management means that production figures are no longer make or break.

edgar222 I doubt that WF will be a game changer. I just expect it to bring more progress in the right direction and keep the money wheel turning. That will do for most folk, including the market. Listen to the video again - LK is not saying that 1000bwpd translates into 1000bopd six months down the line. He is just saying that people familiar with WF understand that if you know what you are doing (LK certainly does) and put the water in, you know that after six months you will start to get significant oil out.