Member Info for rossannan

Still a lot a of chat about the big picture, but what�s actually happening with PHE?

Forget whether you�re backing CERP or TXP, are you hearing �Yanny� or �Laurel�? http://home.bt.com/news/news-extra/yanny-or-laurel-this-auditory-illusion-is-the-new-dress-11364272085789

LGO-fan Yes, this is a CERP BB, but if folk are going to use it to compare CERP with other oilers, it needs to be done accurately.

HH To be fair to the company in question, the �15 million debt outstanding� is in Canadian dollars, its net debt is now less than 5 million Canadian dollars, its production could well be over 2000bopd by July and its MCAP is around �13million less than CERP�s. So how about now?

vike1 “with not much excitement here for another 12 months or so” LK intends to do a material deal by EOY and will probably detail his plans for the SWP by then also.

Rugby2015 These issues are largely historical. With WTI where it is and LK maintaining financial discipline with no expenditure on interventions other than what we have already seen and cost-controlled WF pilots, CERP is in a good place financially. Can’t share your optimism about production though - seems pretty clear that they are on the low case trajectory. But 900bopd would still be a solid achievement.

willowpillow It’s not about wells being shut in or worked over. I’m challenging this idea that 550bopd with oil at $45 was at any point the formula for CF+. It seems to be a misreading or misunderstanding of what the company was saying at the time that was not borne out by subsequent events, even making all due allowance for IPSC quirks etc. (always important when we’re talking about Goudron). Although I disagree with LLL’s negative take on CERP, he has highlighted that the 2017 Accounts are due to be published shortly. It should all be in there (and may therefore serve as a useful reality check).

PTMS If $45 oil was a component of the CF+ calculation though, CERP would have been CF+ sooner than it was. In October WTI stayed mainly between $50-55. It�s not about being negative, just about being accurate.

LGO-fan Looking back on the BB, it appears that folk have taken LK�s original statement about a business plan based on $45-55 oil, chosen to ignore the higher figure and ended up taking $45 as the benchmark for everything. That would explain why, despite exceeding the 550bopd target, CERP only scraped CF+ at the end of the year. If the CF+ benchmark had been 550bopd at $45 oil it would have been CF++ at that point, not just CF+.

LGO-fan When did LK say that? Most of the commentary on CF+ that I saw referred to barrels, not an oil price, although I guess you need the right combination of the two for CF+.

LGO-fan Point of order. CERP based their growth model on $45-55 oil, not $45 oil.

Bamps21 Alas, not one of mine!

Bamps21 Fair points, but I would imagine that, if the big deal is about assets outwith T&T, LK will ensure that it is structured so as to mitigate the risks for CERP - he has been careful with shareholder value thus far so I don�t see him starting to take silly risks now.

offerman If we are in the foothills of an oil boom (which remains to be seen, but this is certainly an increasingly benign environment for oilers) and LK is looking to make an acquisition outwith T&T, he maybe needs to get a shift on before folk start asking and paying top of the market prices for oil assets and services. 2018 may indeed be the window for his “material” deal and the trick may well be finding the right partner, particularly if we’re talking about somewhere like Suriname (anagram “aneurism”). It helps that LK is such a heavy hitter.

offerman Never come across that but my O&G universe is limited to less than 20 stocks.

Garnhiem. Fair point, my understanding is that the deep wedge isn�t so deep that it is outwith the scope of the IPSC. Or at least some part of it is within the scope of the IPSC - they wouldn�t have found it otherwise!

joebop I don�t think that�s where HH is coming from. The plan for Goudron is clear, as is the plan for the SWP. At some point CERP may secure the Goudron deep rights but it already has deep rights in the SWP so that�s where it�s all happening next year.

Bamps21 Interesting article http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/2018-05-11/khan-gas-forecasts-promising but it would be great to see them doing something about SPT in particular which is an irrational tax desperately in need of restructuring.

HH Spot on.

offerman There may well be a bonanza below Goudron, but CERP doesn�t have the deep rights (at the moment).