Member Info for RorkesDrift

Can you secure some comment from Profferor Waffle about this realistic scenario although it sounds an awful lot like what he said in April.

Feeling like a proverbial mushroom

May I just offer our collective thanks to The Timster for getting this rumour going. Much more of this and I'll be able to afford that coffee marker I have my eye on

I have reliably been informed that this seasons pantomime has been cancelled. This is particularly distressing for our non resident pantomime dame who had released a tender for a range of battering sausages and had the donkey saddle upgraded.

This news will be disturbing for the entire congregation who have been practising the time honoured tradition of

It is us..

Oh no it isn't

On the upside rooms at the Weather by Travel lodge are now half price

Good find. Thank you

Just for you Timster

https://youtu.be/Gn7vqhQ9oHw

I hate it when I'm left out of a list

There are Arab Christians.

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are produced by introducing an antigen to a mouse and then fusing polyclonal B cells from the mouse's spleen to myeloma cells. The resulting hybridoma cells are cultured and continue to produce antibodies to the antigen.

https://youtu.be/Gn7vqhQ9oHw

There is the unlimited market argument - infinite demand / limited supply curves. Centurion fathered this in April and it made sense then. I'm still here so a guess a part of me agrees

Patents but I get your point.

But again peak sales are related to peak virus and arrival of competition. That point in time is getting closer - in the summer it looked like we would have first mover advantage and a clear field.

Hey maybe they have done everything has quickly as is humanly possible. We don't know cause Professor Waffle has missed every date he has mentioned and refuses to provide any update or guidance. Hence twitchy - not over leveraged - don't even have a credit card.

In pharma peak sales occur just before either indirect (me too) or direct (generic) competitions arrives. For example Plavix sales crashed almost immediately when it went off patent. If it had been launched a year later total life time sales would have reduced by the value of the final year not the first year. Therefore speed to launch impacts considerable on RoI. If peak sales are say £10M per month Avacta total revenues are reducing by this amount for every month we delay. I'm guessing the life cycle of this test means peak sales are less than two years away - reduction in prevelance = reduction in testing, vaccines, competition, price pressure (tenders) etc.

That's why I'm getting twitchy. That and I'm trying not to drink before lunch.

So I'm not saying they have an advantage - but they seemed to start well behind Avacta but now might be level pegging (one for his knob).

If it isn't aptamers it could be something else - the point is that the product life cycle is only so long - if you waste time you eat into the time available to generate sales at the peak. In pharma we would have binned most products that took 14 years and were still in the starting gates.

Strategically the company relies on 3rd parties too heavily. They try a bit of everything and get nowhere once the journals have published a paper - eg sepsis, d-protein, etc etc.

You would hope if they knew what they were about they could at least forecast the next six months - my reps do better than that.

Bit of communication would help - at least it would provide sonething to base an investment decision on.

The bloke might be a great architect but I'm not sure he could build a shed.

I know you understand the difference between promised and delivered.

Every month without a product on the market is a month less of PEAK sales - life science industry is already catching any advantage Avacta had - aptamers for example.

I very much doubt the company was set up on the bases of no meaningful revenue in 14 years. At some point a company has to move from promises to hitting their own milestones and getting stuff out.

If he does it - trust me I'll be over the moon. In the mean time all I'm saying is the guy is heavy on promises, light on delivery and he has a track record.

So he has delivered a valuation based on jam tomorrow. In terms of actual tevenue or products or progress what has he deliveries. So far its warm feelings.

If there has been progress then let us know. If not then let us know that.

At moment all he has done is let a load of already rich people buy shares just before significant announcements (Mrs Zeis, Boo hoo) or at a 40% discount.

Not the behaviour of a Board who are treating their retail investors in line with their own code of conduct.

I will continue to hope rather than believe in this company - don't have a choice.

Off to redose

Quote "f that is true I have no idea why Alastair is not making a bigger song and dance... 500 sent for testing and having locked down the design is a huge step forward"

Maybe cause they haven't completed tech transfer. The guy needs to update market - his previous statements were vague but even so no longer valid. Why the secrecy?

From Professor Waffles bio

"He left his academic career in 2007 to focus full time on building value for Avacta shareholders".

So in 14 years his full time focus has delivered what exactly. I've seen faster moving glaciers. Non-execs need to syep up.

Why?

"Rorkes, where does it say that? Avacta have clearly had multiple versions of tests kicking around which the govn is aware of."

Not having a go but I have heard of the ambition to bring multiple tests to market. I understand that in the lab some milestones have been hit - affimers binding confirmed.

However, to date I don't know how far things have progressed. News to date is warm feelings that lab guys get.

I believe we may get a test but given we don't know whether the promise of an affimer on a strip in a piece of plastic you gob on is even possible and has PL points out my assumption that it is possible is based more on my initial analysis (Feb) than anything Avacta is providing in terms of guidance.

My current solution is a glen Scotia Victoriana

Can I do a quick sanity check. To submit to the tender would Avacta need to complete technology transfer and complete clinical (ie real world not lab) validation.

I might have missed it but I don't think either of these milestones has been announced - indeed I am not sure what dates have been provided to shareholders. I hear Q4 quite a lot but not sure what is expected - could just be an invite to the house warming.

Still here. Still invested. Still looking at SP

Crossed fingers beginning to hurt.

Have discovered whisky