Member Info for romaron

Unfortunately we are currently unable to execute your trade online. This is probably due to your order exceeding the online market size. Please complete the details below and submit your order to a dealer. If you wish to amend your order please press cancel. I tried for 40,000 - hardly SIZE

Tried to BUY at 13.10 - response "unable to get a quote"

Will buy selected stocks today. They prefer stocks that handle liquidity better so we may get overlooked for now. I know friends with a lower risk threshhold will not look at this as a buying opportunity but reinforce their opinion of why oil stocks are a too risky investment. If I didn't already hold I would be buying. This is the bottom unless Corvid-19 still holds some surprises. You're better off following Shell and BP because people expect them to be around when this is over. We are incorrectly lumped in with a bunch of smaller oilies and some will not survive. We will.

Only the strong survive.

Maybe Saudi does have production costs of $9 but the actual cost is a lot, lot higher. They are 85% reliant on oil and the other 15% is oil related anyway. They are in a hostile region with many greedy and poorer countries enviously eyeing up the swag. They promote their form of Islam (Wahhabism) around the world and its effect is two-fold. It subdues the populace and stops outside terrorism. A bit like paying protection money. The House of Saud can only survive by paying increasing bribes to stay in power. It is a bloated Kingdom that has to spend increasing sums to stay in power. As you've pointed out Squif, the figures back this up. Regional adventurism is costing them a fortune in Yemen whilst the Iranians have them surrounded. SA is weak and it required the US to remove the Iraq threat. Callous and cruel as he is I doubt MBS works in a vacuum and is well aware of the need for allies. It's a big problem when your US ally is also the same country that is undermining your economy. I'm sure President Xi and his bestie Vlad have offered solutions. Whilst the US and Israel have their plans too.
Doesn't sound like a recipe for stability, does it!

I make you right Squif. Trump is in awe of the power and ruthlessness of the other actors here. The US is acting like an Empire in decline and the fool he thinks that MAGA is all about playing with your bull-worker. The world is no longer impressed by them.

Apologies - wrong board but whilst here I wish all holders of PMO the best tomorrow.

Could the break down in the talks have been engineered? A certain orange gentleman needs desperately to change the Corvid-19 narrative and get the Dow higher. Lower oil prices help that.
I read that Putin was too busy to take a call from MBS - did MBS throw a tantrum?
Have the US used leverage and is Trump working the "art of the deal"?
At present the winner is Trump. He'll throw anybody under a bus to get advantage, even if only temporary. The US economy and getting re-elected is more important to him than shale.
What does President Xi think about the SA move? Pleased I'll bet.
My enemies enemy is my friend - applies to Saudi Arabia and US as regards Iran.
Putin is an undeniable genius who plays a 4:1 ratio of non-military and military measures in any given confrontation.
Neil Hannon thinks a gimp mask is as effective as a face-mask against CV-19.

It's all speculation (except the last one - he was spotted on a bus going to a Therapist gig).

I doubt things are completely as we see them and with powerful autocrats involved there is a lot of pride and brinkmanship at play here. I expect Xi and Putin to do well whilst Trump and his gang play to their strengths which aren't subtle. Unless MBS has panicked I imagine there is a longer game at play here. He will either be in cahoots with one of them or playing them against each other. Maybe whilst MBS has relied on US military protection he's come to realise that Putin and Xi aren't frightened of or impressed by the US. Perception is everything.

Not looking forward to tomorrow. EnQuest have battened down the hatches and trimmed the sails. The experienced crew have seen a few storms and will confidently expect to ride this one out. The PIK and pushing out the bond maturities was a masterstroke. They can handle almost anything that's thrown at them.

Be Lucky and keep washing them hands!

I think Putin will find ways of getting around the impact of any Venezuelan shortfalls. Trump is in awe of the power that authoritarian rulers have.

I posted this yesterday: "A more scientific approach. Jan/Feb $60 Mar-Aug $40 Sept-Dec $65 average . I think I've given enough margin for Putin to become alarmed and shale to drown on its own product. I still get an average of over $51. When demand catches up it will be $70 plus.
Of course you might prefer to use these charlatans https://mcdan.com/price-forecasts/ who will obviously have to adjust their figures by lowering 2020 and raising 2021. Their next forecasts available mid April and up to the 1st April will make interesting reading."
I was of course being flippant with the 'more scientific approach' but I will be more worried if it slips below $40 and stays there for any length of time. I used 6 months at $40 because that is time for Corvid to be over and the impact on uneconomic producers to have worked through and cut production. Putin has shown he won't be bullied or manipulated by the US and has run rings around Trump and his lapddog MBS. Maybe Putin has shaken hands with President Xi?
This action was always on the cards but I fear for the response from the US. Trump is out of his depth but does control the biggest and best military by a margin. This is getting very ugly.

Hi Squif, we're on the same page. I'm looking forward to the March 26 Full Year results for what AB says about going forward. I just hope he gives a better presentation that PMO did. It's only 19 days away but things are moving so quickly he'll probably be checking his comments up until the last moment. Whatever the news people are much happier with clarification from the horses mouth.

"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less." Marie Curie

Good post squif. We also discussed the cash in the bank and the option of delaying some of the capex. We can hold our breath for a lot longer than most.

With Tullow dropping out of the FTSE250 I browsed this list http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php I don't know how accurate it is but it seems a fair guide. I've ignored BP and Shell whilst we know Centrica is selling its oil and gas interests. It seems there is only one company left in the FTSE250, Energean Oil and gas (ENOG). It is also unusual in that its valued in pounds not pennies. To make a blunt comparison they helpfully had an IPO in March 18. They reached a high of £10.82 in Aug 2019 and closed at £6.00 last night; feels familiar? No oil company has done well the last year and the market is pretty indiscriminate in its judgement imo. So we have only 3 oil companies that Funds will touch (ignoring those who have moved out of oil for good)and for those who will invest in FTSE350 you can add CNE and PMO. CNE ain't gonna get its India tax money and PMO has the small hurdle of a RI. They are in danger of dropping out too.

I haven't self-isolated yet and noticed the North Circular is as busy as ever and the panic buying of (FFS) water is in plastic bottles. Can you imagine the real panic there might be if you cannot get fuel!
Last night I had a long conversation with an ex Shell employee. He says that they are having crisis meetings as will EnQuest. He called it crisis but it is what it is and you have to allow for various outcomes. What he did say is that the obsession with OPEC and shale is missing what the oil super-majors would do in a period of sustained low oil price. They are commercial entities and would mothball or close permanently the uneconomic fields. Nobody knows how low oil might go or overshoot but it won't stay there because production by commercial companies would be cut. We all know about the lack of investment in long cycle conventional extraction and we both feel there will be a supply problem in the near future that has been hastened by the Corvid-19 pandemic. Airlines are friendless at the moment but once people feel its safe to travel there will be an explosion in trips. I bet they'll be taking advantage of low fuel prices. The current situation is temporary and EnQuest is well positioned. We are in the middle of a cull and it ain't pretty but the healthy companies (we're one of them) will come out of it stronger.

Be Lucky and wash your hands!

Not sure I agree 60p. I'm not convinced that MBS is as enamoured with the US as previous Saudi administrations. Whatever is behind the machinations they are both opportunists and adventurers. They can blame each other but still be in cahoots. Both of them can dance rings around Boysie in the White House.

Just glanced at the trade volume today. UK 5.697mio SEK 12.708mio

Can you throw any light on the SEK trades? The Funds this side are holding firm. I couldn't care less what the algos do to each other. The obvious suspect is Swedbank who had 47.73mio shares at 3 Feb

TLW and PMO were much busier. We aren't really in this fight but like BP and Shell we get dragged into it.

Hi E - confirming what you've been saying for months " The sector is heavily indebted after years of expansion and disappointing returns." whereas we've got our debt down to a far more manageable level but I found this more interesting:
"Around the world, the coronavirus will cause oil consumption to fall for only the fourth time in nearly 40 years, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc." That indicates that once we're past the worst and things start to return to normal EnQuest will be well positioned.

I doubt The Donald is enjoying reading the weekly figures of the Trump Organisation either (yes I know he says he's not involved but who believes him!). Hotels and airlines to get you to them are badly hit. The only thing I believe he's got right is the fatality ratio. It looks particularly high because there just hasn't been the testing to back it up. You cannot miss a death but a short cold and high temperature that is almost gone overnight is unlikely to make you want to visit a doctor; especially in the US where you have to pay or be insured. There is a "deductible" that isn't covered in the US medical insurance (a bit like the excess on car insurance) which also discourages reporting or going to the doctor.
The big problem is the extent of the disease is unknown but it is heading in our direction. Several of us on here are likely to get it and the chances are it will be mild. Markets don't like unknowns but you can bet that the hedge funds are relying on better figures and employing the best researchers. At the moment it's fairly easy following the trend. Timing for getting back in will be the challenge.

YOY - if you want advice I'd say don't invest in the oil industry as you are risk averse. Look for a return of about 7% and you'll double your money every 10 years. That's what billionaires do. I might post something later that will explain why you shouldn't try and compete on a daily basis with the market. As much as they have advantages they also have disadvantages. Not my area but the Black-Scholes model was the bible/equation for option traders. They actually won a Nobel prize for it. I couldn't understand it but the man who wrote the book "The Black Swan" could and ripped it apart. If enough people believe in something they make it appear true. Eventually they rudely bump into real life or the sheer unpredictability of people. With all this technology people forget that Trump was seen as having no chance to become President. I'd say he was a Black Swan.
BP or Shell are a less risky investment than EnQuest and pay a dividend. EnQuest is riskier but the fundamentals aren't that much different but on a different scale. EnQuest sticks out among other companies with the large CEO shareholding.
I've seen nothing to change my mind and in a perverse way this Virus may actually bring me my rewards sooner. Of course that's if I've got it right. The direction of EnQuest is along with probably every company in the sector. The bet is whether you think oil has a future.

YOY- next thing you'll be saying is that my wet finger in the air isn't a good predictor. I've been through a fair few financial crisis in the City as a trader and a broker. Don't assume that others know better than you.

A more scientific approach. Jan/Feb $60 Mar-Aug $40 Sept-Dec $65 average . I think I've given enough margin for Putin to become alarmed and shale to drown on its own product. I still get an average of over $51. When demand catches up it will be $70 plus.
Of course you might prefer to use these charlatans https://mcdan.com/price-forecasts/ who will obviously have to adjust their figures by lowering 2020 and raising 2021. Their next forecasts available mid April and up to the 1st April will make interesting reading.

We may have hit it today. I went to Costco, Chingford and it's the first time I've ever seen the car park full and queuing. Rationing of toilet rolls, soap, kitchen rolls etc. with staff monitoring aisles. I asked several staff if today was the busiest. They said Thursday was. I went there Monday and slightly busier than usual but not excessive. The trade use Costco as well so this is a reflection of what their customers are buying. I believe this is a sign that panic has peaked and will last a few days whilst people barricade themselves from contact. I know it's not scientific but then neither is panic and some gauge property prices by the number of skips in a street. Another indicator is troll posting and it appears we only have one on this board who it seems has a personal animus against EnQuest and believes the virus will impact world demand for several years. The average price of oil will be higher than $50 by 3rd Quarter, as will the yearly average 2020 and in 2021 will accelerate due to the lack of investment more than making up for this temporary hiatus.

*Pelle - I've done Cervinia and found it excellent. As a keen skier you will be aware of the Kaprun, Austria disaster of 2000 when a fire in the funicular tunnel killed 155. The victims ran away from the fire. The only survivors (12) were those who walked downhill towards the fire because their leader understood the effect of vents and chimneys. He didn't panic.
I've skied Kaprun (Glacier) and the funicular is replaced by a gondola. You can also get a bus to Zell am See from Kaprun which is heartbreakingly beautiful but poorer skiing imo.