Member Info for romaron

Another factor in the hedges is that there will be some failures as the settlements approach imo. At the base there is an actual delivery of oil and the rest is just multiplications of this as traders squeeze the last cent out of trades (think algo bots) and that delightful term "derivatives". As in practically every economic downturn there will be casualties here too and they could easily suck in some of the biggest banks and oil traders around. At the moment KSA is winning from the point of view of its strategy but I imagine there are some unforeseen consequences that they hadn't factored in as some warning lights come on their dash board. Talk about "if a competitors drowning stick a hose in his mouth". KSA and pals cannot supply the whole world.

Just a couple of thoughts. Maybe KSA is just threatening, they've certainly got the result they wanted. They have to charter extra ships but it doesn't mean they're gonna use them. In both WW1 and WW2 part of naval strategy was by just having a battleship in a port with the potential to break out.
The other was the CV-19 on the Hurricane FPSO. It required an RNS but says production operations at Lancaster have not been affected. That augurs well for EnQuest. Contingency plans are always in place for most forseeable events. Maybe not CV-19 but crew problems. It costs more when needed and Red Adair was never cheap (OK his speciality was fires but you know what I mane).
EnQuest have already done their bit in contributing to reduced output and capex. This is happening throughout the oil world.

Be lucky

"On March 25, 2020, the US government announced the death of Robert Levinson. Although the date of his death is unknown, it has been determined that he died while in Iranian custody."

Source: Wikepedia and a question at the daily White House CV briefing today.

There is little that's subtle about Trump and I felt he was lieing when he replied to a journalists question (planted?)but then again that is his default position. Trump was well briefed about Levinson. I think there's a chance that Iran sanctions will not be lifted and may increase (really?). For this information to be released today is not accidental imo and this has got Trump's footprints all over it. A feeble excuse to take action against Iran? Appease KSA? Tomorrow's G20 video conference on Covid-19 will involve the Master of the Deal. Why release it now when they've probably had this information for months/years.

Hitman - I was referring more to the phobia of flying. It isn't rational and car travel is far more dangerous although there is more chance of walking away from a car crash. Fear of the unknown stalks us all and you are right about the testing.

Stop it hitman. You're spoiling the narrative of the fearmongers. CV-19 scares me too but so does air-travel for many. It's a lot worse in the 3rd world where washing your hands is a major problem (40% do not have access to soap and water in their home). That's where 4,000 die a day from TB and 1,200 from Malaria. But it doesn't crash the economy or disrupt holiday plans.

No vog - the true heroes are the anonymous key-board warriors. In the real world intelligent people sign up to the calculated risks involved. whether a fireman, nurse or a squaddie. that's what they do and I respect them for it. They don't beat on about it. I was a volunteer before the virus and will continue. That's my perspective and now I've filtered you.

It's hardly the Chernobyl reactor. There is a risk but it is low. Maybe finding qualified staff might be a problem but they work shift systems (say 2 weeks on/2 weeks off) so there is capacity there where for a bonus payment people volunteer their free time. I met a deep sea diver who worked on offshore oil rigs who when I praised his courage pooh-poohed it with the reply that there is so much money involved they bent over backwards to ensure deaths and accidents were minimal. They are some of the safest places to work and there are plenty of people currently available who would apply for these key-worker roles.

*Surprisingly the week ending 10 Jan 2020 was the worst so far with 14,058 deaths. It's fallen every week since to 10,816 w/e 28 Feb 2020. deaths are lower this year than the the average for past 5 years. It's likely that hand-washing has reduced the usual suspects: seasonal flu, food poisoning. hepatitis A, threadworm and pubic hair in Caesar salad. Highest risk are those in their 80's, unsurprising since the average life expectancy in the UK is 80.96 years.

Of course it's worrying but get some perspective.

Slightly off topic but I've just spoken to my friend who's brother is in Chelsea and Westminster and tested positive on the 20th. I feared the worst as he is 80 years old and can only get about in a wheelchair. He was in hospital for a urinary infection. She meanwhile is in self-isolation for another 9 days and is showing no signs. She helped with his care and there was lots of contact every day. He so far is not ill from CV. She feels fine. There is a problem now because the hospital want the bed and the carers now know he has tested positive so may be contagious. Finding carers is the present struggle. My friend had to start her 14 days on the 20th but maybe it should have started a week before that? She could help out but she is potentially contagious. It is not easy finding a solution. There is little I can do as a friend either.
What struck me most of all is her comment that maybe it wasn't as vicious a strain of CV as that some others have contracted. I assume it is the same strain throughout but some people just have a better immune system for dealing with it.

typo FCA not FRA in first sentence.

It isn't only the FRA that is advising/suggesting companies to delay releasing figures using unaudited figures as an excuse imo. We all know that Covid-19 is unprecedented in our lifetimes and sometimes the authorities haven't acted in the most coordinated ways. I understand the FRC advice is even more draconian and some may argue unnecessary, especially in the case of well run companies like EnQuest.
I telephoned the company this morning and they expect tomorrow's Full Year Results to go ahead. The figures are generally audited ahead of this event so the advice doesn't really apply to us unless EnQuest's advisors recommend going along with regulatory advice. If there is a change and the meeting doesn't go ahead there will have to be a RNS.
Obviously CV-19 and action is a dynamic driver of events and I would imagine the meeting would have to rely on electronic means as we know the recent CNE event was poorly attended.
The company is preparing for the event to go ahead as planned tomorrow but events outside their control can change things at a moments notice. Personally I got the feeling they'll be disappointed if they have to delay. We have a team that's been on the battlefield before and know how to prepare for what could be a drawn out clash on two fronts; CV-19 and OPEC.

Stay Lucky

Respect HMH - that's a decent punt. It is a bet on the management of EnQuest as much as anything else and I'm with you. I actually reduced my retailers too (AB Foods and Costco) and did something similar. The future is always unknown and there are no guarantees but oil will survive and it needs an economic price. For the winners it will be very rewarding.

Total and Shell have both said they’re cutting 2020 capex by about fifth and suspending share buyback programmes. Will it be enough to save Shell’s divi? Probably not, says Morgan Stanley:

But then again maybe, says Kepler, which keeps a buy on the sector having already predicted 20 per cent capex cuts. “The oil industry is entering potentially its worst crisis ever, and all levers will have to be pulled,” it says. But “everything has a price, every war has an end”:

and this from IC:
On Monday 23 March – the first business day after this news from the FCA – several entities revealed that they would not be going ahead with their full-year updates as planned. This is wholly understandable – shareholders want to make decisions based on up-to-date, relevant facts and figures. It remains to be seen whether the regulator will extend its initial two-week moratorium request.

Confusing. It's an FCA "request" and several entities are not going ahead which could be read as some will go ahead.

Just reading through The Times. Every Monday it has a column titled "The week ahead" that gives announcements of updates of individual companies and economic data. It says on Tuesday that Fever Tree and Numis were due to report results but the FCA has told companies to put their figures on hold for a fortnight. On Thursday it says among those due to report was Hilton Food a supplier of packaging to supermarkets but no mention of EnQuest. On Friday it says annual results were due from Applegreen which will be hoping to be assigned the status of essential retailer.
It seems that your 09.36 post was correct and that we may not hear from EnQuest. LSE have helpfully removed the link so I cannot reread the FT. In the FT (from memory) it stated that 30% of information by companies was unaudited and I thought that as ours is audited we'd still go ahead but maybe I'm wrong and the audited figures come out around AGM time (May). Rather than speculate I've emailed Ian Wood asking if there is to be Full Year Results event. My thinking is that it seems it is a blanket 2 week delay for everybody but the wording is confusing.

Hi L7 - I hope you're well. Unprecedented times. Thursday is the audited full year results so not really prelims. They always add legal riders for outlook but who really knows what that is? The RNS on the 19th was ostensibly to report reduced production which almost every industry and business is currently doing (Primark for instance). Interestingly until the Virus they hadn't seen the need for an RNS regarding Thistle or SVT. The Virus is making a mockery of prediction anyway so it is good advice from the FCA imo . Trustworthy information is even more important than ever and I have faith in this company from a governance point of view. Just looking back shows how quickly events are overtaking us - on 4 Feb OU there was no mention of the Virus.

*a good friend is in isolation as her 80 year old brother has tested positive for CV. He was already in hospital for another condition (non-respiratory) and she has to go into 14 day isolation. Apparently it is mild and they wait to see if pneumonia attacks. She is obviously worried but says carers he had when at home are still doing their rounds. It will keep spreading I suppose as you just can't abandon individuals who rely on care. A contact of my wife lost her father who ws fit as a fiddle but again 80 years old. He went in to Barnet general on the Tuesday and died Saturday. Its arrived.

I wouldn't worry about any of that for now Tim. The Government won't ignore companies because they haven't got the right subscription or fail to fit easily into a category. There is a sophisticated and comprehensive legal and financial structure for all North Sea oil companies. There are bigger things to worry about presently. I don't think in this area we have any particular advantage or disadvantage over (say) TLW or PMO. I do follow these things to an extent but they have become very subjective imo. Thursday will (hopefully) give us some greater clarity.

Oh dear Nick. You've made the mistake of reading a Moaning Myrtle post by that purveyor of half truths (modern name fake news). It is accepted by the world that this is a force majeure event (modern name black swan). The truth is that EnQuest is in the same boat as a lot of companies and there are over-ruling measures in place to extend and relax commercial contracts outside the reasonable control of a party. A pandemic is a force majeure and although it is a cloudy subject (even for lawyers) it is greater than the limited doctrine of contractual frustration in English Law.
These are unusual times and there is the added protection to EnQuest that a force majeure provides.
The test for force majeure is:
1. the event must be beyond the reasonable control of the affected party;
2. the affected party’s ability to perform its obligations under the contract must have been prevented, impeded or hindered by the event; and
3. the affected party must have taken all reasonable steps to seek to avoid or mitigate the event or its consequences.

The COVID-19 affects all companies and countries. EnQuest is far from alone and this country will protect its people and businesses. Remember too the importance of oil and the fact that oil-workers are considered key-workers.

It is always wrong to reply to a Stanley Green type poster who because of their condition cannot help themselves. This board has enough well-balance individuals quite capable of stress-testing their investments who are not afraid of posting negatives. The only good news I can find is that tissues are in short-supply so you responding to his wet dream fantasies depletes his even further.

Nick - filter him. You know it makes sense.

Be Lucky

In Sunday Times "Warren Buffet, who reportedly is now snapping up billions of shares at bargain prices."

doesn't he read bulletin boards?

Utility workers
Staff needed to keep oil, gas, electricity, water and sewerage operations running. Staff in the civil nuclear, chemical and telecommunications sectors. Those in postal services and those working to provide essential financial services.
Public safety and national security
Police and support staff, Ministry of Defence civilian staff and armed forces personnel, fire and rescue staff, and workers responsible for border security, prisons and probation.
Transport
Those keeping air, water, road, and rail passenger and freight transport modes operating.

Don't underestimate the importance of oil. The Government and R.O.W. don't.

Nice timing by EnQuest. Get the OU out of the way and then offer a face-saving deal to Unite. My nephew has just lost his job (chef) whilst other family members are on tenterhooks. Job security ranks a lot higher than it did even a week ago.