Member Info for romaron

Hi E - those stocks you mentioned are penny stocks. UKOG also has that sort of percentage movement. They are all a fraction of what they once were. I'm guessing but I'd suggest that it's punting day traders moving the stock around. Shale isn't dead but it takes two to tango and as enthusiastic as the shale lobby is I'm not sure the credit markets share that enthusiasm. Trump took credit this afternoon for saving US energy which he said was "down to zero" but with assistance that he got from KSA, Russia and Mexico he single handedly saved up to 10 million jobs in the energy and associated industries. The jump in airline stocks is to be welcomed and Trump also pointed out WB's poor timing.

If you read across the screen price was 14.00-13.00. Unusually wide and extremely close to the UT. I fancy somebody with a feel for the auction guessed this was the best time to get an amount done. The market would expect a little dip from the way the auction was going and using the screen to influence the price makers managed to lower it. Then they pounced by buying outside the spread after (possibly) clearing out the ASK side support. We don't really know how much the 14.00 - 13.00 supported but it was unlikely to be 2mio plus.
Superbly done I'd say. Do you think the auction UT reflects the price or the 2mio trade. I know what I'd go for.

Anyway we should probably know Monday when Jeffrey issues an RNS.

I take it as a very good signal.

Squif - the market probably got wind of a potential selling order from Jeffrey1979. Him being indecisive about selling at 14p made the market nervous. I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure.

Seriously, I think there are other stocks that attract the day traders and jump around a lot more. I like being under the radar.
I'm feeling very positive regards EnQuest.

I only glance at PMO and don't post on their board. They seem to discount the Bond holding of ARCM because very little is ever mentioned about it. I on the other hand think it's very important and the two holdings [equity, bonds) are combined/arbitraged. Why shouldn't I be substance lite on a stock that I don't hold because of an aversion to their management. As you're such an expert do you know the current credit ratings of PMO and Can you expand on the convertible bond and what holders can convert at. Much appreciated.

If you step back you can see why Invesco sold out. The new managers at Invesco would have their own views and investment choices. The two new managers run income funds and it may be some time before PFG returns to paying a dividend. On top of that it is an opportunity to divest and leave the blame on Barnett and Woodford. People do it all the time. If they held on to PFG they are on a hiding to nothing if PFG fails. Maybe PFG was oversold but there are interesting options to invest the proceeds and they are cheap, cheap too. What I'm saying is that politically it makes sense and when new lions take over a pride they kill the existing male line. A new start for Invesco and closing an unhappy chapter.
I like that Schroder have topped up and they've never been described as mugs. The same goes for the other new entrants imo. The price was being held down as apart from Covid the market was aware that Invesco were likely sellers. Why buy when a lump could be sold in the near future? I doubt it was a secret to those who might be interested. Us retail investors are the ones in the dark.
A recession is likely heading but that won't sweat a company that's survived 2 World Wars. There is little to challenge us and even the big banks have burned fingers from entering the markets that PFG dominate. It seems a simple business but why do so many fail then (Wonga, QuickQuid, BrightHouse, Cattles) whilst NSF and AMGO struggle on? PFG is well run and financially sound. If there is a recession then PFG's share will grow faster as the target market of 10.7mio people will grow.
I rarely post on PFG because it is quite a boring company. I like boring in companies.

But the market seems to like it. It goes to show that the market abhors uncertainty. I think it's a huge sigh of relief that they will survive. ARCM have had it off large. They reduce their short at a price they wouldn't get in the market. I glanced at the PMO board and no mention of convertible bonds which if ARCM hold any (likely) they are protected from any upward surge and the bonds will also have soared and is another win/win for ARCM. [Retail Bond which I doubt they're in but is a guide jumped 11% this morning]
It was never really in ARCM's interest to own PMO and like all good parasites the aim is not to kill the host. The winner ARCM. The losers PMO LTH's. It makes me laugh that PMO's CEO has a background in investment banking. ARCM have danced rings around him. He'll either go or grant options to favoured executives. I'm with you chilting. I expect more from a CEO.

Hi Smokin - afraid I'm gonna have to defend hitman. At times he irritates me (as I'm sure I do others) but he is a valuable contributor (imo) to this board. A prediction here is often as valuable as forecasting the final score at half-time and is after all an opinion which he often explains; plus he is a genuine holder who I've met at the AGM. He does know his stuff.
I have my own system (which I'm sure is flawed) for calculating the oil price per quarter from the futures. Then there was the recent historic finding (c.150 years) that oil works between the range of 10:30 per ounce of gold. That indicates the oil price should be somewhere between $57 and $172 a barrel. Laugh if you must but I've seen guys take these outside bets and come up trumps.
There was a post from Jeffrey1979 on 21 May regretting that he hadn't sold a small amount (c.14p) with hindsight. I replied that he could sell the next week at 18p. Well, I was over ambitious and he could have sold today but things are again different. I didn't say anything to Jeffrey but I had a small pang because I had picked up a few below 10p and it would have been a 40% profit on those (don't worry I have plenty more bought higher up). Today I bought more EnQuest at 13.78p and haven't sold any . Today was a combination of selling a stock that I'd lost faith in and buying in these depressed times a share I see as grossly undervalued. I also liked what Sapper wrote. I topped up some PFG as well. It will be months before that shows a decent return but I can afford to wait.
I stopped a long while ago chasing prices and day traders add to liquidity and are a useful source of income to the platforms. You have no idea the advantages the banks and professionals have on a day to day basis. However, like the bookies they play the odds and don't have large positions overnight. Prop traders are as rare as hen's teeth in banks now and the number of hedge funds around have decreased. The only thing I have is no guv'nor judging/managing me and experience of the City which whilst not in stocks is populated by similar minds and most ain't rocket scientists.
I bought some RB on 9 March at 55.5 which dropped to 30 within a short period. I bought more on 25 March at 31.87 so within 16 days I'd been wrong and right. They say it's all about timing but that has defeated Soros and Warren Buffet. I wonder what they are buying (at the wrong time) now?

Don't be silly L7 - when have I ever gone into that sort of detail? I just remember the threat by BP to consider an alternative to SVT.
A quick google produced this https://www.shetnews.co.uk/2020/05/04/bp-to-pause-clair-south-project/
which suggests that Covid has either impacted or is a useful excuse for procrastination on the 3rd phase. Maybe Sapper can find out if it affects the BP tanks. I doubt that any company in these times is splashing out money unless contractually obligated so there may be a clue in what Sapper wrote. I think there is pressure and leverage exerted by BP on EnQuest and in turn used by EnQuest in negotiations with redundancies at SVT. I expect BP to stay as the political fall out might outweigh any financial gain.

This is in response to the Sapperno1 post yesterday and changed the subject title as things easily get lost. I don't want to get you (Sapper) into trouble but assume you are working for a contractor. Is it scheduled maintenance/refurbishment?
It says that they have 16 x 500,000 bbl crude oil storage tanks at SVT. It appears they are running at about a quarter of capacity so that leaves 12 tanks empty? take away the 3 you'll be working on so 9 left. I'm not too interested in the speculation of cheap oil storage but more into whether this is a contractual obligation or a sign that there are ambitions to ramp up SVT processing/storage? I'm especially interested to know if this suggests that BP will continue to use SVT for the Clair field?
I suspected that BP were possibly threatening to use alternatives to SVT as a negotiation ploy. I still think SVT has its uses as a permanent fixed base that avoids the impact that weather can have on FPSO/tanker transfers.

Welcome aboard Sapper https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKy4gVUUmNg

A lot of stocks have taken a disproportionate hit from the pandemic so there are more forced sales and bargain hunters around. Another problem is that currently the market is very thin. We need to discount some of this to a point. It is not unusual to have erratic stock swings but they're not usually all at the same time.

It feels like August. Maybe the idle financial journalists can expound on what is happening from a technical and tracker basis. I keep coming back to a thin market that won't behave how we expect. Normality will return at some stage. One good thing is that the algos are as confused as the rest of us.

Typo "EnQ and TLW dropped 3.27 and 6.84 percent."

Now I'm totally confused. PMO dropped 13.26% https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/PMO/premier-oil-plc/company-page and this can be explained by this https://www.etfstream.com/news/11495_msci-makes-sweeping-changes-in-latest-index-rebalances-following-coronavirus-turmoil/
[thanks to justme1 on PMO for steering me in the direction]

Enq & PMO dropped 3.27% and 6.84%. I expect some sympathetic following but this is where I'm confused.

I don't know about TLW but I'm pretty sure we aren't in the MSCI index. For fairness it is probably best that the trades are done at the last day UT (a kinda LIBOR). The professionals would have been aware of this and would have been there with their paddles. Size always attracts the bigger players and for once it was probably (metaphorically) standing room only. There has probably been a pressure building on those who want out following the Covid tumoil and indeed some are forced out by their mandates.
It doesn't though explain why we were sucked in but I'd imagine if you wanted to sell a large amount in a thin market then a well attended auction is the best bet. Obviously it also attracts large buyers (bargain hunters). I'm not so bothered about the sellers of EnQuest it is the identity of who bought them. If you wanted a good opportunity to sell a large amount this has been one of the best occasions.
For whatever reason stock has changed hands. The amounts are big enough to affect holdings and maybe percentage changes will be reported but that isn't always followed religiously as we know.

*I also suspect reporting restrictions have been relaxed due to Covid. It is only one example but my next door neighbour is a broker for TP ICAP. He is working from home but his clients (the banks) have to go into work unless they have a doctor's note. Back-up staff are where?

We live in unusual times. I am encouraged that in the mayhem we have outperformed PMO & TLW.

I looked at a few other companies (PMO, TLW, BP.)and the UT trades are all pretty sizeable there too so it may be an end of month technicality and there were plenty of those TNCP trades too. Could be just a blip that we can ignore. If it's more than that maybe the weekend press might comment.

Hi hitman - it was K who alerted me. I doubt it's buyback and I expect a RNS early next week. This looks like a negotiated deal and the use of the UT might be for transparency or an impartial way of settling on a price. The Europeans had fixes on their currencies mid-day for a "fair" price for their customers. It was used to settle many deals and avoided accusations of dealing at highs and lows of the day.
In this trade It might even be that the parties agreed to do the trade through the auction process at the closing UT at the end of May. We'll get some clarity next week hopefully.

To add to the strangeness there were another 3 trades totalling 10.36 mios posted later with the code TNCP which stands for
"Non Price Forming Transactions and Non Price Contribution to Discovery Indicators"
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary/GB00B635TG28GBGBXSSMM.html?lang=en
Total volume today 48,438,822

Another investor who doesn't post here whatsapped me to ask if I'd seen today's closing UT trade:

16:35:24 29-May-2020 11.82 GBX 32,313,656 3,819,474.14 UT XLON

Still heading North and the size says it isn't retail buying if that makes sense.

That isn't why I'm posting though.
Does this look familiar: "During the first quarter, the Group repaid an outstanding balance of £50m for a loan facility with M&G, half of which was an early repayment ahead of a contractual obligation in January 2021, and also repaid a £25m bond. There are no further contractual maturities of the Group's facilities until the second half of 2021."

This was after a heading "The Group has strong capital and liquidity positions:" and was added as a rider. It is from an RNS from PFG today. The market seems to like it. This is off topic but PFG has been unloved for sometime and has been a big winner for me in the past. I bought in 2010/11 when it was the most shorted stock in the FTSE. I made over 6 figures and my reasoning is similar to holding EnQuest. The world will continue to use oil (dense cheap energy) because much of the world is poorer than us. We might become complacent but there are still a lot of poor people in the UK and sadly many took a bigger hit from the pandemic because they are key workers or on the front line. I have bought PFG because of the pandemic. The poor will always be with us. All the colourful Experian adverts about checking your credit rating is fine but it hides the fact that some struggle to get credit even though they are deserving. My parents couldn't have purchased a school uniform for me if it hadn't been for the "Provvie".
PFG have survived two World Wars. Covid hasn't been their biggest challenge. I imagine if I'd promoted PFG earlier many here would think I'm nuts, perhaps this will confirm it. Their RBs are doing better than ours [2021 91.62 and 2023 83.10]

Hi E - I'm not being gung-ho because there is a glimmer of light it's more a case of the opportunities and collapses that will happen in the next few months. In fact we could almost be in a unique position. TLW and PMO will be saved by an increase in oil but for now are restructuring. Spirit has a for sale sign whilst Chrysaor need to digest recent purchases. RKH and HUR will be open to offers but seem to have the dreaded AVOID on their prospects. I expect the majors to continue to divest in the NS. It is too "bitty" for them. I think AB and his team will not have to go looking. Build the best mouse trap and the world will beat a path to your door. In the vanguard will be the smooth-talking teams from M&A who bring ideas and solutions when pitching. We have a window where we are sitting pretty compared to others. Remember, every company in the industry has taken a hit. We stand out because by luck or judgement we were in a good position among mid sized oil companies when the world changed. Let's not waste it.
The alternative of sitting on our hands is also attractive but I invested in this company for growth. Why stop when you're winning. If we were quoted in the US I doubt we'd even be having this discussion as they look for opportunities at times like this. Of course I'm also betting that Covid from now on will be seen as a paper tiger.

I received a reply from IR.

"We are looking at both of those options (sale/use in another field and scrap) for the vessel. The final decision will be based on maximising value as far as possible.

Hope this helps"

Well not really but TBH it was the answer I expected. With the world's attention on Covid everything was in stasis. We might start getting a dribble of news from now on as the world starts turning again. Surely it has to be worth more as a FPSO than as scrap.

12:46:20 26-May-2020 54.50 GBP 40,000 21,800.00 Off-book SINT
The above trade was reported at 12:46:20
The price indicated it was much earlier. That is why algo trades in equities can mask so much. The algos are scraping up the fractions from the day traders whilst the real activity is often missed.