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In fact I'd go further on PMO. They are running against the clock and those who understand corporate finance better than me will know that there isn't just over a year for the PMO Retail Bond to run. In actual fact it is much closer than that if the Board want to keep their jobs. Just in time doesn't work for credit markets and the pressure is on them now. If anybody has details of the other PMO debt maturities at PMO I'd appreciate it.

The mistake is to assume that there is consensus in US oil. Shale will continue but the problems are now well known and it is just as likely that those who control the credit lines will call the tune. I think Art Berman got it right when he said that shale was a free for all and few companies looked at the medium term for shale and the more you pumped the more you made. Shored up by the likes of OPEC who were thought too dim or reliant upon US military might. It was a gold rush and the gold petered out. There are still some good shale plays and they could be treated as SPR at these prices; the plays that is not necessarily the companies. The majors are more involved now in shale and won't sacrifice their balance sheets to please state and government authorities. They also need to protect their conventional operations. They'll all accept hand-outs of course but it's currently a crowded space.
Does anybody really think that Oil and gas UK speaks for all the companies operating in the NS? Of course not so why should shale speak and act with one voice.
I laugh when people write things like "Goldman's sees oil higher/lower". Sure one of their economists has said something (usually with caveats) but you can be sure that there are plenty, within Goldman's, who will disagree. In fact Investment banks encourage personal research and views because it aids diversification. Smaller hedge funds might go all-in but not the likes of Goldman's.
There isn't even consensus in NS oil. If there was almost everybody would have the same hedged positions for example. It is easier to try and simplify the present situation. It is a natural reaction to try and bring logic to a process that is subject to cycles, government actions and a multitude of company decisions. Oil is fiendishly complicated but if you can survive the aforesaid there are decent returns to be made.
I'm siding with the futures but as a base. The market is controlled presently by the credit markets and they are notoriously risk-averse. Companies are behaving themselves until the storm passes. This low level has the credit market support but their tight-fistedness means that the braver companies are constrained and those with healthy balance sheets aren't the types to speculate. Trump might well be right on the break out higher. If you believe in human ingenuity and self-interest then the recovery will be soon.

As usual L7 you spot something I missed. The lovely Izabella is Izabella Kaminska and her twitter account on 21 April is not so much informative as evidence that we should avoid derivatives as far as possible. Some random snippets from her twitter that day:
Regarding APs "They are the only entities that can pledge collateral to the institution in return for the unique funny money they monopolise."
"Again it's only one theory, and we need more insight into how shorted the USO really is/was both institutionally and by broker/dealers"
"The logic is based on the standard defence from the ETF industry as to why this scenario of there being multiple claims on the same shares is not a risk problem. New creations can be initiated any time to over come a potential squeeze when you run out of stock to deliver."
It's all gobbledygook to me but the language does seem strangely similar to that used at the time of the financial crisis in 2007/8 started by the Collaterised Debt Obligations (CDO's) and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS).
Whilst everything was going swimmingly (best economy EVER, energy independence, MAGA etc...) who'd want to be a party-pooper. The fact is that few people understand them and the people usually brought in to sort out the mess know almost as little and are more bankruptcy administrators or maybe undertakers. From what you write they are trying to regulate/change/put a cork in and stamp out what is an embarrassing system run along Fred Karno lines. It works cos it works and nobody allowed for it to go wrong. It lacked a plan B.
Having said that no animals were injured during the making of this almighty FUBAR but it's left the market as nervous as a small nun alone in a penguin colony. Those hurt were speculators and retail investors who shouldn't really get involved in stuff that nobody seems to understand.
What it does reinforce for me is that there are still incredible amounts to be made in oil and its space is populated by a mixture of snake oil salesmen, simpletons and hard working professionals who know their stuff. The difficult bit is steering a course between them and recognising the latter.

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