Member Info for romaron

Guilty but sticks and stones. I was accused of it again last night (in the pub) but whilst I can accept it may be true (we all have prejudices) you must in fairness consider that the accuser may also be suffering from it. J'accuse the conventional fund and share markets of the world and unfortunately they're bigger than us.
Think of a sector/product more unpoular than the oil market that is very profitable? There is one, Tobacco.
The lack of buyers in EnQuest isn't personal. Look at BP or peers more our size. Their share graphs aren't that different and in some cases they're paying dividend.
I held BAT from 2010 and made boatloads. One reason was that I was an ex-smoker and nicotine has a tremendously loyal base(smokers) despite the punitive taxing. Throughout the 90's and until I bought them the rhetoric against tobacco was relentless. However, as the West was weaning itself off the drug the tobacco companies were making record sales in other parts of the world.
Now, you can live without smoking and you can live without oil because there are alternatives for us. Not cheap but alternatives. The r.o.w. does not have this luxury.
Then there is conflict. Wars don't do finesse; they do bludgeon. At some timeyou need trenches dug and defences prepared. Tanks need suitable conditions and the unsung sappers are called upon. Jets and warships will require oil for well past 2050 and I don't see any real change in the bellicosity and avarice for real estate that countries always have. Does anybody believe Erdogan when he says that its foreign policy is enterprising and humanitarian. Meanwhile Putin goes around poisoning prominent adversaries and President Xi goes around building concentration camps for Uighurs. perhaps he also uses them to build coal fired power stations.
It is countries like this who will ignore net zero and the recent outburst by the Saudi Arabian energy minister suggests less than total commitment, "IEA's net-zero roadmap is 'La La Land sequel".
The British Govt. cannot walk away from oiland it wouldn't want to for tax and strategy reasons. It couldn't legally anyway without attracting multi legal cases from overseas investors.
We aren't gonna win popularity, EVER, but we are gonna be around for decades yet and throwing off obscene amounts of cash for thosewho don't suffer from confirmation bias that you catch from the herd.

EnQuest the true contrarian bet! If you don't believe me look at the HYN and RB. They're flying. Some news on the way I guess. HYN 92.411 RB 92.08

Half (49%) of UK school pupils are worried about air pollution near their school – an increase of 10% since a similar survey ran in 2018.
A YouGov poll, commissioned by the walking and cycling charity Sustrans, surveyed 1,305 pupils aged 6 – 15 across the UK to find out about their attitudes towards air pollution and the climate crisis.
Of those surveyed, just over three fifths (62%) don’t think adults are doing enough to tackle climate change, with 71% of pupils admitting to feeling worried.
===
What does any of the above prove? Maybe that they got the kids to stop gaming or looking at their phones for long enough to answer loaded questions similar to "do you think clubbing baby seals should be allowed?". Different answer if you're a fish farmer whose livelihood is being lost to them or Inuits whose way of life is being curbed whilst the search for minerals continues. I'm not a Philistine and I'm sure Sustrans are totally impartial and have no paid executives (budget £46m).

I had to use this example as I couldn't find the latest survey about net zero but like buses there'll be another one along shortly.

In my day we worried about far more important things!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1ZOWwW2agQ

*HYN and RB looking good.

Did you know that Saudi Arabia has the best sun? Levels of solar radiation in the kingdom are among the highest in the world. Bloody unfair that. They go from having the cheapest reserves of fossil fuel toa win/win on renewables. A win/win really because their next biggest export option after energy is sand closely followed by Wahhabism.

They are making all the right noises and making promises. Like Russia, China and Belarus one can only hope their commitment to Net Zero is higher than their commitment to human rights. I have a sneaky feeling that these countries will continue to do what is best for them and to hell with the West.

"We are still in a time in which the Americans will fight for Saudi Arabia to keep the black stuff flowing to grease the wheels of the world economy, but are we approaching a time in which there is no way the Americans will fight to defend Saudi Arabia's solar panels." [Tim Marshall: The Power of Geography]

6. Tax credits
7. SVT wind options
8. Malaysian opportunities/connections
9. Heavy oil expertise
10. Location, location, Location (BBK)

And the market is running scared of a Swedish teenager who blames us for "stealing her dreams". Well there are plenty of teenagers in other parts of the world who would give their right arm (and legs sometimes) to have the advantages a Swedish or British child is born into. Deaths from extreme weather are the lowest in history and lifespans the longest ever. What would make them happy? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6PQkiKn6gY

Up again HYN 90.426

Must admit Bitgun that this "Although fuel cell systems and batteries are seen by some as competing technologies, they actually work together to bring more options to the transportation and power landscape. " reads a lot better than "without the supportof fossil fuels most renewables have a limited future".

I'll probably change my mind when they produce the first battery powered tank or helicopter. Can you imagine driverless cars in the Middle East? Not only the intermittent electricity but get in a taxi. Some are older than cars in Cuba. Have any of the proselytisers gone out into the real world. Heat pumps are expensive and out of reach for most people yet idiots on here promote them. I could go on but while net zero is a priority for western governments (not so sure about the US if GOP return) not everyone shares that focus. "Net zero is a luxury that western governments can afford a lot more.....How do you tell a Latin American government that is close to being broke [that it must cut production]?" Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects on the requirementto fill the gap between renewables and reality. Africa will be more than happy to supply China and the R.O.W. out of necessity.

*about 85m boepd are produced by NOCs or as near as . We are focused on "big oil". Take PetroChina, Saudi Aramco, Rosnet and Abu Dhabi NOC. All have pledged to trim their carbon intensity but none have plans to cut production.

https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Morocco/electricity_prices/ shows where populous and poor countries rank in electricity pricing. How easy will it be to move Nigeria to German levels? My tip. Build more Martello towers to tackle the invasion of the desperate and unemployed hordes that will be driven to our shores if these unthought out plans are rushed.

This is your fault Therapist. The link you gave led me to PGS and onto Talisman.
"I’m not a climate-change denier. The climate changes all the time and the question is what causes it. It could be caused by changes in sun activity – we don’t know for sure. It has been warmer in the past. Calgary’s hottest year was not in the last decade. It was in 1927.
Are you really an astrophysicist?
I have a PhD from Oxford in astrophysics. I worked on radio emission mechanisms in pulsars.
Now that you’ve stepped down as CEO, what are your plans?
I’ve got a lot of interest in energy demand and supply, or lack of supply, which is a big worry to me. I’m a big skeptic of the anthropogenic global warming story.
I’ll do some work on all that. I’ll also join a board or two, but not big boards. They’re just about corporate governance now."

source: https://royaldutchshellgroup.com/2007/10/08/globe-mail-jim-buckee-talismans-retired-contrarian-picks-his-next-fight/

*The Sahara Desert region was once quite lush. About 10,500 years ago a sudden outbreak of prolonged monsoon rains transformed the Sahara Desert into lush savannah extending down into what is the Sahel. That came to a reversal some 5,000 years ago. Maybe it was the move from stone age to bronze age that started global warming?

I was looking at the Whalsay operations map https://whalsayenergy.com/operations/ and you can see why the 3 oilfields have been said to be one large oil field by some commentators. It does of course bring scale to the concept along with Equinor's expertise in offshore wind which might be the clincher for development purposes. A lot of credit goes to EnQuest for being the pioneer. The project is challenging but new field developments in the NS are the proverbial "chicken's teeth". There is still a lot of recoverable oil in the NS.

Keep them coming Therapist. A few here know about Xcite and Bentley and it never hurts to refresh. The part about OGA and MER was big at the time and people quickly forget. Its raison d'être and close ties to Govt. The regulatory backdrop is beyond our control but we are if nothing else a pragmatic country. I posted recently that an ally of ours (Australia/Five Eyes) recently took advantage of the 2020 oil price crash and topped up their SPR. Forget net zero. China and Russia won't be any closer or less of a threat to us in 30 years.
Another point about ESG. They can't have it both ways. The economic miracle that is always around the corner with green hydrogen can be equally applied to Bressay and Bentley. In fact the technology continues to improve in heavy oil and the major problems are regulatory changes and electricity as was mentioned in the podcast. We are several steps ahead of green hydrogen because we can already lift heavy oil at an economic price; it doesn't require unicorn tears. AB isn't a wet behind the ears ex hedge funder or sell side analyst from a bank. He is the real deal; a highly trained engineer with decades of experience. If he pushes ahead then it will be on the basis that promises have been made and deals signed with the British Govt. Few doubt that oil will be needed for decades yet. This country wants to hedge its bets. That is prudent in an uncertain world.

Hi Therapist - interesting how Unicorns capture the imagination but brilliant as the Feber model is it has undeniable limitations:
"BATTERY LIFE
Continuous use: up to 50 minutes."

*They laughed at me when I said bullock carts were the next big thing and they were an obvious hedge in this renewable world. They have a greater range than unicorns but sadly are not much faster. There are downsides to all forms of energy and the neighbours have complained about me keeping them indoors (I live on the 3rd floor of a high rise) but I have support from some neighbours and we have won the prestigious Best in Barnet - (allotments) award for roses two years in a row!

it's all very well this toing and froing regarding what to do with used batteries but the elephant in the room surely is unicorn manure. its inherent toxicity and the pollution it causes make it a very hazardous material. Another unintended consequence.
The answer remains green hydrogen at an economic price. Of course some say this is witchcraft and pseudo science but I have it on good authority that scientists are close to cracking it. It only requires a few trillion dollars more.

this just dropped in my email: "April 14th 2021, Jefferies published a research note entitled “Are EVs as ‘Green’ as They Appear?” in which they conclude an electric vehicle must be driven 200,000 km (or 124,000 miles) before its “whole of life” carbon emissions equals that of an internal combustion engine."

There is more but that 200 kms is longer than the life of the battery. Short on costs but loads of potential with technology coming to the rescue. No mention though of the toxicity in Unicorn manure which is a by-product of the essential catalyst in green hydrogen that shaved unicorn horn provides.

Two things worth commenting on imo. I misread shale. E121 and Modestus didn't. I was stuck with the first wave of shalers who used cheap money and encouraged by the likes of Trump and energy independence pumped like there was no tomorrow. I hadn't allowed for the fact that many had got wiped out or moved on. These aren't the same shalers of 3 years ago. Many bankruptcies followed but the bulk of the acreage is now in the hands of responsible producers of scale who either have conventional interests or are aware that a higher oil price suits all producing parties. A return to the previous free-for-all would help nobody. Shale, like renewables is a fact of life but both have their limitations and for now need to co-exist with conventional production. I'm no longer scared of shale and the tide is going out on renewables.
Pelle got the dividend debate going again. I think AB is more aware than any of us about shareholder return. He made his bones in the US both in education and employment. He really is an impressive individual. He went to two top universities there and actually has a D ENG degree from Stanford. He went on to work for ARCO for 14 years so is probably more aware than any of us in how companies such as EnQuest would be valued in US terms (more like the "new shale companies" I'd like to think).
Some great posts on here lately. Information I didn't know I needed continually gets my brain cells working. Diagnosis is a narrative process and it is hard sometimes to be objective when the price swings violently around so the sensible input is very welcome by me and the efforts of many posters on here.

We need the price to settle now and consolidate. Get the refinancing over and the placing. The HYN closed above 90 today (90.107) which is close to where we were before Covid. Talk about a roller coaster but it is another positive sign.

If you hold these at 95 you are getting a return of better than 11%. If they had a year to go (15 Oct 2023) it would be 12.5 %.
Tullow 2026 with a coupon of 10.25% is a YTM of c. 9.3%

I know which I'd rather hold.

*I will concede that inflation is creeping up and rates with it. After what the world's been through in the past 2 years I can live with that.

Gordon Bennett - I need a lay down. Pyueck and Squif both being optimistic in the same week. With caveats naturally and Squif only went Buy not STRONG BUY!

*I hold the retail bond too and never really felt they were really threatened. Pyueck - there are not many upcoming bonds. There will be refinancing - AB has said that - but there is equally a strong argument that we could pay them off before maturity. Not a bad position to be in. The recently issued TLW bond is trading around 103.66. Our 2 bonds are still a bargain - current YTM c. 15%

Be Lucky

Can we please stop talking of dividends until the prospectus is out. We are aligned with the largest shareholder [and the Employee benefit Trust]in the company and he might welcome a windfall amount too but as he's in control of the timing it is against his interest (and ours) to be more specific at this time and an announcement would be unhelpful. The placing and OO is for existing shareholders and why shouldn't we get cheap shares?
Brent was $55.61 on 3 Feb the day before the GE RNS. From a timing perspective the deal was perfect. It followed a period where oil was c.$40 and that distraction called Covid. Suncor may well have thought they had timed the deal well also; the future remains unknown. Negotiations would have taken place with a backdrop of weak oil prices due to an oversupply. I know I'm right because I'm dealing backwards.
AB isn't deaf and he also has commitments with his foundation whilst I'm sure Baillie Gifford and Aberforth have been patient long enough but won't sweat over a matter of a few weeks. The announcement of a special dividend would have a massive effect on the share price and needs to be handled with care. in some respects it is a nuclear option. The company is pretty leak free and I hope attention remains with our more traded peers.
The baying from the day traders is a distraction. Let's get the extra shares first and then see what happens.

Personally I think we'll get what we wish for but what's the rush. A final top up with cheap share suits me fine.

Redwood Capital Management, LLC is an SEC-registered investment advisor that focuses primarily on distressed and stressed credit opportunities. And they now own 10.30 per cent of PFG. That isn't chickenfeed.

We are in some form of play. Redwood seem to think we're cheap. A comment from PFG would be nice but I'm not holding my breath.

Thing is i was your age once. I hope you reach my age and gain the wisdom, experience and ability to turn the other cheek. I just got older. Good call of yours though.

I am currently shouting at the TV because the executive director of Greenpeace Intl. is explaining why countries in Africa need to become even poorer because they must abandon fossil fuels. The fact that they did not really contribute to global warming in the first place is irrelevant. Their hypocrisy [Greenpeace] has no charm and I find them despicable. "A solar panel will give them light to study in the evenings to educate themselves and take their country forward." Yeah right, just so long as we can still get cheap flights to Spain and Portugal. It's all bllks! That I have learnt.

Be my guest Modestus. Fundamentals never really go away. The oil market is misunderstood but not so much by the fans of 60/70's R&B. That was a time when smart suits and choregraphed dancing was the epitome of cool. Now some of the Philistines describe it as "dad dancing" but what do they know!

I quite recently saw the Temptations at the Royal Albert Hall. the audience was 98% white and of a certain age. At the interval I thought I recognised somebody I knew. I waved and they waved back. It was a mirror!

This is the song for those that never lost faith: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EaflX0MWRo

Have you taken your medication today? Noticed that "Buy" next to your 06.59.

about ethical investing. An interesting article in the Sunday Times. Along with many others I like the odd McDonald and I'll change my mind when activists try and blockade kebab shops at closing time or the pie-stall at a football match. James Coney the money editor wrote that he'd canvassed other editors, fund websites and specialist investment sites and everyone reported the same thing: "the subject of ESG was a turn-off. But I can hear you saying, ESG funds are among the most-bought investments of the past year. True, but it wasn't because they were ethical, it was because they were suddenly hugely profitable. If you look at the money flowing into the most popular, it matched exactly a rise in performance. And when performance slipped at the start of2021, hey presto, investors took their profits out. Yet fund managers take this as a sign that we want more ethical investments and so have new funds to flog us. Heavens knows how much electricity is wasted powering the PR machine behind the mountain of guff I get sent every day."

FCF doesn't appear to be pouring like a waterfall from these ESG "success stories" and most here have invested in stocks that always promise "tomorrow". That's the basis of ESG stocks. The tide is turning and even if OPEC increase production it will push oil higher because it is now a demand story and supply was decimated due to Covid and the ESG narrative that pushed oil stocks to ridiculous lows and made them (for many) uninvestiible. The only fund I'm interested in is fundamentals!

Build it and they will come.