Member Info for Rollyroll

Couldn't have said it any better Milk. I have had all those thoughts. Started with thinking this is amazing, to now being in the middle. Derisked over half as now it's crunch time for AS to deliver, and this could go either way. Expect a big move up or down in the next couple of weeks.

Valid point be. But someone of authority needs to give avacta the nod to say you are now the standard. looking at what has unfolded over the last month, I've been very suprised the gov did not fast track us. This is what has made me de risk. I thought for months, avacta would be the poster boy of LFTs, but June 2021, and we cant even submit documents without everything going t!ts up. That really is pathetic. June 2021, its shocking.

It was looking very promising in Nov to Jan. But as time has gone on, the more deadlines we missed, the more deals we missed out on, leads me to this position now. June, with zero deals. Gone from thinking we are going to be the sovereign test, to now more and more people thinking we may not be. After every rns the optimism has faded as time ticks and deals slip. I sold half last week as it just felt like something was right. I still hold some, as id hate to miss out, but something just doesn't add up here. So many unfortunate events, at some point you have to question if it really was the best test on the world, why doeant everything always go wrong.

Well we have been told demand will outstrip supply by AS many times. But if we currently have enough tests, without BBI, Abingdon, GAD, ODX manufacturing, add the backdrop of falling demand, then this sounds like another lie from AS. Plenty of tests out there, innova aint going anywhere, i have boxes sitting at home. Unless authorities stop using less accurate tests, im struggling to see where all these deals are going to come from.

The new guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued in May allows people who have been vaccinated to travel in the U.S. without getting tested before or after travel. 
Abbott got more than $3 billion from sales of its COVID-19 tests last year, but analysts have cautioned that demand is likely to fall this year.

Rivals Quest Diagnostics Inc and Becton, Dickinson and Co said over the last couple of months that demand for COVID-19 tests has started to decelerate and expect lower sales in the coming quarters.

Abbott, which generated half of its total COVID-19 testing sales in the first quarter from overseas markets, said it expects a similar drop in testing demand in international markets.

"We'll start to see that (drop in testing demand) first with the developed markets as the vaccination rates in those increase and accelerate," Chief Executive Officer Robert Ford said.

Abbots down 8% on cutting their forecast due to covid test demand falling. Highlighted higher vaccination rates reduce the demand for testing. Yes we will need testing for a while, but clearly not as much as pre vaccination.

I've been saying it for month's, AS is an awful CEO, has bo concept of business or knows how to manage shareholder communication. So many failed deadlines, it just keeps getting worse. But many will still say it's not his fault, its always someone elses fault. As i said before it is likely we wont sell anyhting until July. Somehow things will keep dragging on. Will be interesting to see how long this SP holds up, I can see it breaking support very shortly, in the coming days, before Q4

Did i say testing wont be needed. I Said people wont pay for tests and businesses will use the free ones.

Doc venues will say you can come in if you have a covid passport OR do a test. You won't need both. Only some places will require both.

Why would businesses pay for a test when they can get free ones. Unless they are mandated to use avactas ones due to its accuracy (which the gov wont do as it undermines their crapper tests) it aint happening.

Only if airports insist people use avactas test will it work. Soneone somewhere with authority needs to say thr avacta test is the standard we will accept. Currently noone is saying that nor does it look like they will

It is becoming clear that Avacta did not have a magical test the gov was waiting for otherwise it wouldn't be taking 20 days for approval.
There are clear delay tactics being used by the Gov on UK test makers, I suspect it is to prolong the contracts with Innova as its cheaper and backhanders are being taken.
Avacta's easier to use test causes another issue. People will not want to use brain ticklers after seeing Avactas. But the rest of the supply are brain ticklers. Gov may be reluctant to have 2 methods.

Unfortunately this stock is caught up in a PR rollercoaster, the best test is not important to the GOV. They just want to be seen as not running out of tests and it needs to be cheap. Innova opening a factory in wales is a big concern, that this partnership is not going to be interrupted.

This now leads to a new vision of what may happen. If we are not part of the UK Gov test, we will need to rely on private sales plus EU. Personally I don't think many people will pay for a test, especially once vaccinated.

If this mologic CE has already taken 20 days, how long will Avacta's own one take. Huge concerns that Avacta may not be selling their own brand until July onwards, by which time we could be below 200p. Only deals can save us now, imo

Wow. this just gets more and more crazy. Holding avacta is one crazy experience.

Yep I think it's very odd that noone wants to fast track this test. Only people pumping this test is AS and this forum.

Who actually validated the CV results in Spain. Is it self validation by avacta or a authorised 3rd party such as a PD equivalent?

I think Ava will happen before we sell a single test.

Realistically without the uk Gov deal, I think we are looking at July for our 1st deal.

Why would they make it in UK, when it's cheaper in China. It's probably just a distribution centre and for them to claim it is a UK based company. All PR imo. The gov want the cheapest test for as long as possible. IMO, In their minds, the best test can come as late as possible to save money. Then they will order a couple of months supply and hand it over to private companies to pay for the tests and stop offering these tests for free. They have had a better test(mologic)since Dec and did nothing. They have the best test now (avacta) and have not fast tracked it. So it all comes down to money and them lining their own pockets for as long as possible.

Atleast they file their accounts on time. About the only timeline they have managed to meet.

Vegas, I don't moan everyday. About once a week I think, which is reasonable i think.

But my dad has Fum shares, so he is well hard

Well I hope this next RNS comes with deals. The market can only wait so long before it feels most of the potential revenue has passed.