Member Info for RogueRiver

This will become the new Sirius BB - more like Mumsnet than a place for discussing the share.

If funding becomes critical, the government will probably step in with some sort of guarantor package. At that stage, the SP will probably stabilize. It's just a case of how long that situation takes to come - and where the SP will bottom in the meantime. My guess last week was 300-350, but I'm more inclined toward 250-300 now.

Yep, the Saudi break even price is about $9pb, whereas Russia's is around $19pb. So, the Russians can undercut US shale oil production (@ $23pb) , but they definitely cannot undercut the Saudis. Given that demand will be extremely weak for the next few months, all oil producers are going to be hurting, even the Saudis.

Not sure who is going to blink first, but (although plastic surgery makes it more difficult for him these days) logic says it will be Putin.

It will probably be back up to 4 on Monday morning - and back down to 3.4 on Monday evening. Best get used to it. The market is going to be up and down like this for the next 3 months.

The whole world is de-risking at the moment. Regardless of its potential, GGP is still a speculative share and the market is treating it accordingly.

Good for you Luddite. Trading is not for the faint hearted and eventually it catches most people out. I think I'd be pretty bad at it. I had my buy limit set at 3.50 yesterday and cancelled it just before the big drop. I'll be happier sub-300, which is almost certainly where this is going after the dead cat bounce.

A lot of people who bought this morning will be selling up before close.

The trick is to estimate where it might be in 2 years time. Post-virus, there will be a lot of pent up demand for travel and leisure and IAG will probably be very well positioned to exploit it. People have short memories. 2.80 is my ideal buy limit.

I think the US/UK governments will facilitate CCL getting as much cash as it needs - and at probably close to interest-free rates. This was always going to be one of the big companies hardest hit by the current crisis. People will return to cruising in a few months, after the virus has peaked worldwide. It will take a few years for the company to recover, but it is no one's interests to reduce this company to $50 million worth of scrap metal.

colls

Same for the West African Ebola epidemic 2013-2016, which, with a case-fatality rate of 40%, was literally and existential threat to mankind.

With almost universal access to the internet and the news cycle - and (more significantly) algorithmic trading and easy access to online trading, in the last few years the market has become ridiculously hypersensitive. These days, the market seems to overreact, even when there's nothing significant to worry about. I think that, in a few months' time, the general consensus will be that the threat from this coronavirus was massively overhyped.

The speed reflects the nature of the pandemic. China is already in recovery mode, with people slowly returning to work. The effect on the markets may be brutal, but relatively short lived (i.e. months rather than years).

If it does, I’ll have to eat my words to Whatamess a few days ago (I said 250 was fantasy). I could see raw fear now testing 250, but sub-200? All bets are off, unfortunately.

George

I think we will see further falls, but the effect of Covid-19 is likely to be more of a short sharp shock, than a prolonged recession. I think it will hit the markets for the rest of the year, but it will also create a lot of pent-up demand afterwards. The infrastructure spending plans announced in the Budget will also create a lot of new growth activity.

Some joker on Motley Fool UK wrote the other day that we have 'enjoyed a good bull run'. The US might have, but we bloody haven't. The only significant upturn I saw in recent years was post-2019 election. That's all history now, of course. If you're in for the long-run though, current events are just a bump in the road, albeit a very jarring one.

George

If it’s any consolation, just about everyone is underwater at present. The stock market bounced back after two world wars, the Great Depression, 9/11 and the Financial Crisis. Only one thing is certain, it will bounce back again.

Carnival is now down by around 20% on the NYSE, which is hardly surprising given that the US State Department has warned people not to book cruises.

On the macro pandemic front, China has reported a fall in daily cases. One might view their figures with scepticism were it not for the fact that new infections in South Korea are reported to have fallen for a third straight day.

I think there is more pain to come, but if the recovery phase in Europe comes as swiftly as it appears to have done in Asia, we may see a very prompt reversal in these falls.

Why not throw in two world wars as well? The stock markets survived both of them and all the other major crises of the last 120 years. It may be a good time for melodrama, but one thing history teaches us is that stock markets always recover from a crisis.

You'd better hope the deal is done and dusted. In the current market, not only could I see no one wanting to make an alternative offer, I could see AAL wanting to withdraw. Unlikely, but these are unpredictable time.

It's easy to blame the usual panto villains like short sellers, traders and the like. Most of these daft fluctuations are down to algorithmic trades, in which actual humans have had very little input. Looking on the bright side, the same algorithms will send shares soaring again once the news cycle turns positive.

Yeah, big deal. It's hardly guru stuff. I called sub-£20 and then mid-teens a few days ago. You didn't have to be Warren Buffet to see where this was heading.

I think anywhere sub-£13 will offer a very good risk/reward. 450p will only come if CCL faces the threat of bankruptcy, which is vanishingly unlikely. I doubt their banks would want to be left with $50 million worth of scrap metal. More likely, the fleet will be laid up on care and maintenance for a few months, before some stellar offers tempt the punters back post-crisis.

Correction. The Saudi total production cost per barrel is around $9, whereas Russia is about $20.