Member Info for RogueRiver

I wouldn't be surprised if Russia returns to the OPEC negotiating table in the next few weeks. Its entire economy is oil dependent and it cannot compete with the Saudis, who can pump at <$25 per barrel.

Honeybadger1461

I cannot begin to appreciate how you are feeling right now.

It is probably no consolation, but most people holding shares are probably underwater after the market falls of the last few weeks. You can spread the risk as prudently as possible, but you cannot anticipate hits that come out of the blue.

Debenhams and Thomas Cook holders had to walk away with nothing. At least you were able to salvage some of your holding.

Some of the supposedly brightest people in business and finance were wiped out in very recent history during the financial crash, so don't beat yourself up. All the best for the future.

Now down 14% on the NYSE. It was always going to take a big hit once the US markets fully appreciated the potential impact on the tourism/travel sector over there. Meanwhile, I think we will see sub-£20 this week, as the hysterical headlines trigger more algorithmic sales. A lot of people will probably buy in at that point, but I think we may still see the SP in the mid-teens over the next few weeks. I'm not trying to worry anyone who is holding. This is a solid company with a very bright future.

Nearly 10% down on the NYSE as I type, but then it hasn't seen the same sort of falls as it has on the LSE in the past 2 weeks.

'Read the last sentence "investors may lose all or part of their investment"

They forecast it and it happened. Who read the prospectus?'

Many were simply not interested in being apprised of the risks, as anyone familiar with this BB can attest.

AAL probably. 5.48 is still cheaper than 5.5.

skier1

This particular grand project will almost certainly be completed and provide jobs and other economic benefits for the area for decades to come. The risk here, especially in the last year, was not that the project was a bad idea, but that the money would not be found to complete it to production, without shareholders being wiped out.

DanTheMan105 said: "I think the numbers actually attending/ voting suggest that some of the wailing/ cursing/ gnashing of teeth here was a little overdone."

I said a few days ago that I thought there would be a disparity between how people said they would vote and how they actually voted.

Holders in, say, Debenhams or Thomas Cook would probably have been quite content to walk away with 5.5p. As someone who was a SM holder for a relatively short time (and even as a fairly inexperienced investor) I was always aware that it was a speculative investment and it never represented more than 5% of my portfolio.

It is desperately sad that some people thought it was a good idea to pile a third, half or all of their savings/pension into SM. They may find some catharsis in directing their rage at CF, but he is just a convenient target.

Chilting

I've seen a nice Bentley I'd like to buy. There is a risk I might run out of money before I've managed to pay for it. Please would you act as my guarantor?

It is certainly a good result for the area and the employees (for whom PIs often expressed their concern on this BB). PIs (certainly LTHs) have lost out, but it could have been worse, believe it or not. In very recent times, Debenhams and Thomas Cook PIs had to walk away with bugger all.

SteadyGoes

I think you may be overestimating how much those outside the Sirius 'bubble' are interested in the minutiae of this project. Those who don't hold shares are likely only to be interested in seeing the project continue for the benefit of the area and the employees. The worst any 'investigation' might conclude is that the company was poorly managed, which while regrettable, is not a crime.

Besides, if it does go into administration, it will probably be bought out of it in pretty short order.

However you voted and whatever outcome you hoped for, good luck. I think LTH deserve a medal.

More gloom from the Daily Wail:

"BA cancels string of transatlantic flights due to coronavirus: London to US routes are reduced due to lack of demand and short-haul flights drastically cut back threatening Easter holidays"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8066461/BA-cancels-string-transatlantic-flights-coronavirus.html

While other shares may be stabilizing, I think IAG still has some way to fall. I will probably set my buy limit somewhere between 300p and 350p. I think they can pretty much say goodbye to any profit for 2020. In the long-term, I think they will be fine.

"LSE" meaning London Stock Exchange, that is.

HL publish the actual price at the close of trading (at 1630) whereas LSE publish the closing auction price (at 1635), so the latter is the correct price.

CF was the best thing since sliced bread while everything was looking rosy. Now, he's the arch villain of the piece. You can't really blame him for the bond sale flop, which was due to macro economic conditions (or arguably Trump's big trap). Nor can you blame him thereafter for trying to save the company by any (realistic) means possible, which was always going to mean holders losing out.

I think there will be a big difference between how PIs say they have voted and how they actually voted. I think it will be a 'Yes'.

IAG won't be going under, but I think the virus will have a bigger impact on profit than the strike action did - and the price was kicking around the low to mid 400s during the strike. I'll be happy to buy anywhere below 400, which I think we will get to in fairly short order. I think 380 will be a very good risk/reward price in the current climate.

In a year's time, normal service (and normal SP) will be resumed.

Having studied Carnival's past performance, I don't think buying, even at current levels, offers a good risk/reward. The underperformance of Carnival during the last recession, along with its very long recovery time, should be enough to warrant caution.

Without wishing to sound alarmist, I think the SP will be down in the 15-20 range as the inevitable pandemic plays out over the next few months and badly affects the travel sector, especially the (non-essential) cruising market.

Talatum

If it does drop that low, it will only be a temporary phenomenon. Better to think long-term.

The virus (or rather the hysteria over something that is only going to kill those who might have been killed by any type of flu) is probably going to hit international travel for the rest of the year. After that, a vaccine will probably be available. Meanwhile, I wouldn't be surprised to see the SP back in the low 400s.