Member Info for RogueRiver

Passingthru. Well quite.

Cash ISA = virtually risk-free investment.

Capita shares = high risk punt on failing company.

Standby to see your comment bounced down the page by more verbiage. Reality checks tend not to be welcomed here.

Encouraging results and a nice fillip to the sp. Still way off my average of £6.40, but I can wait, while the dividends stack up.

I doubt that Capita is a viable takeover target in its current state. The only way it would get taken over is post-administration. If it gets turned around, however, I could see it being taken over by Mite or another competitor. Big ‘if’ though.

Kipper. Only the top 20 are listed, so it won't represent the entire ii/fund holdings, but it gives a decent overview.

Kipper. 27.85% held by funds and 29.44% held by institutions (57.29%).

The IIs (institutions and funds) are listed on the Morningstar website. It is updated at the end of each month and shows whether each holding is up, down or unchanged on the previous month. There's enough info there from which to extrapolate the trends.

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/cpi/ownership

I'd be asking if they can categorically rule out a rights issue in the next FY.

At 30% if revenues China is Burberry’s biggest market. With real estate tanking there, they don’t have the cash to splash anymore. Recovery in the West will take up a bit of the slack, but not much. I can see sub-£10 before any proper recovery.

Good to see it topping 50p more firmly. I bought at 30p during Covid, in the belief it would be paying a decent dividend within a few years. I haven’t been disappointed. The growth is just a bonus. Can’t see it making 60p until the car finance claim thing is settled, though it’s unlikely to be anything near the magnitude of PPI. It’s about time that people started taking responsibility for their own financial decisions. Don’t like the AER a car trader is offering you? Walk away, instead of whining later.

Hmm, never underestimate Capita’s ability to eff things up.

@Clued. The last time I bought Persil, I put the new bottle next to the old one and noticed that it had shrunk, by about 25%, unlike the price. The last time I bought Magnum, they cost more and had 5 in the box instead of 6. I’ve never bought Dove soap, but doubtless they have fiddled that too. It’s Lidl own brands all the way these days.

Despite the hype from the brokers and the financial press, I could never see the fascination with this company. The divi has never been all that impressive (even pre-inflation) and growth has been non-existent.

Four years ago (pre-Covid, pre-inflation and pre-shrinkflation) I said that Unilever would face increasing pressure from own brands and it was hard to see how it could grow much further. Perhaps the financial gurus don't do their own supermarket shopping and couldn't see it. Needless to say, I closed my position - and I'm glad I did. Thanks to shrinkflation (aka fraud), I no longer buy Unilever products either.

How about this sp trend: Down 89% in 5 years, 71% in 3 years, 61% in 1 year and 23% in 1 month.

16-18p is the new 30-40p.

Because people can still get 5% AER in a savings account with almost zero risk to capital. If you pick the right UK shares, you can still get 7-8% pa. though.

All of which is completely irrelevant to Capita, given that the chances of its ever paying a decent dividend are vanishingly small.

13p looks to be the bottom, until they come round with the begging bowl halfway through the year. AH says he needs to launch a rights issue in order to complete his 'transformation' (sound familiar?). By that time, there's no confidence left in the company, the raise fails and it's game over.

An overly pessimistic scenario? Perhaps, but there's a lot to be pessimistic about here.

If this gets to £21.06 it will be a two-bagger for me, in just 18 months. It was a lucky buy (and will offset some of the crud I've bought).

@Trisor. I don’t know if it’s going under, but it’s certainly displaying the classic symptoms, as far as the sp is concerned.

IIs appear to be bailing. With respect, I think the market is a better judge as to the health of this company than any of us here.

There’s always someone playing Billy Big B0llocks on these sort of BBs. I remember the same sort of talk on the Debenhams, Flybe, Sirius Minerals and other BBs. They’re usually the ones trying to rally interest in a lawsuit (“We was robbed”) when it’s clear that it’s over for shareholders.

13.90 looks attractive, until you compare it with 12.90 or 10.90 or 5.90 or zero. I'm afraid I've seen too many of these 'bargain' penny shares in ailing companies to be tempted by another one. They are cheap for a reason. If you enjoy gambling, go ahead.

Capable though the new CEO might be, the question remains whether there is anything substantive left for him to turn around. That’s probably what is irking the market at present.

The original JL turn-around plan was to run down (and ultimately hive off) the central and local government stuff, where margins are low. Then along came Covid and the burgeoning debt problem , so it became necessary to sell off the divisions that were going to spearhead the new prosperity.

At best, Capita is going to chug along as a high turnover, low profit businesses, even after any remaining fat is trimmed off (and there can’t be much of that left).

Even if one disregards the car crash that this company has been over the last five years, it hardly represents a dazzling investment opportunity. Good luck to AH, but unless he’s a miracle worker, the only way for Capita is down. If it goes under, few will shed a tear and the essential government stuff it administers will just end up in-house.