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No change, but perhaps more doveish noises.

(If we make it to 56p my Lloyds holding (inc dividend reinvestments) will become a two-bagger.

Two new articles in The Times have Glencore as the favourite (suggesting that they are holding back, pending a renewed BHP offer). Analysts are quoted saying that an Anglo-Glencore tie-up may offer significant synergies, adding value to the merged groups. Given the prospects for net zero metals, particularly copper, it's hard not to see any outcome being advantageous to investors, in the medium to long term.

Bidding war in prospect as Glencore mulls move for Anglo American

https://archive.ph/thvBJ

Buyers ready to dig deep for world’s miners

https://archive.ph/FMv3M

I notice that the market reports in the financial press have skirted around the Phoenix rise, like it didn't happen, so clearly they are at a loss to explain it.

Interesting, though not altogether surprising, news. One idea doing the rounds is that Glencore could pitch a simple all-share merger to Anglo, without the conditions that complicated BHP’s offer. I don't hold Glencore, so this would be my preferred scenario. In any case, the report should send the sp rocketing again tomorrow.

Investors seem to be keeping everything crossed for AH's June statement. Will it be the panacea everyone is hoping for though? What if he announces the need (or possible need) for a capital raise? He might be able to spin it as a 'necessary step on the road to recovery' but it will probably send the sp down to 5p.

From today's FT:

Who are Anglo American’s possible suitors?

https://archive.ph/Rohha

I'm not sure how Capita is 'ripe for a takeover bid'. All of the most lucrative bits of this business (i.e. those with growth potential) have been sold off. Let's not forget that the original turnaround plan was for Capita to offload the parts of the business they are now left holding. These leftovers might be saleable post-administration, but it's hard to see anyone wanting to pay good money for them at the moment.

Capita's only hope now is to slowly haul its behind into profitability, while not making any major blunders (which, as everyone knows, is a big ask with this company). That may be achievable, but it might also require further fundraising, which will drag the sp even lower.

Gertfrobe. Sirius Minerals went bust four years ago and sold the project to Anglo, so quoting the former is pretty irrelevant. Anglo’s completion timeline has been a little more realistic. I’ll be happy if it’s up and running in a couple of years.

With dire forecasts about global agricultural soil viability, I think Woodsmith has the potential to be a huge money maker for decades to come. As a division of a traditional mining company, it probably is a bit off-the-wall, but I think it would be a mistake to dispose of it, especially given that the project is relatively close to completion. Instead, pump more money in to getting it completed and into production.

There are a couple of articles in The Sunday Times regarding further possible Anglo takeover scenarios. The prospect of a Glencore all-share merger with Anglo, without the conditions that complicate BHP’s offer, sounds particularly attractive.

Glencore is the predator to watch as Big Aussie stalks Anglo American

https://archive.ph/iSHFP

Inside BHP’s Anglo American bid: the £31bn tug of war over copper

https://archive.ph/mbhwu

Nudged past £27 for a few minutes today. Let’s hope it’s a sign of things to come. Surely an offer of £28-30 can’t be far off - and it may not be from BHP.

Or perhaps BHP have come straight back with £28.

I wonder of Rio or Glencore have pitched in with a counter bid.

I was lucky enough to buy into BHP at £16 during Covid. With dividend reinvestments and my Woodside spin-off shares, it has been a two-bagger and isn't far off that, even now. I wasn't so lucky with AAL and caught a falling knife at £24, but hopefully rising takeover bids will rectify that. I'll be pretty relaxed even if the takeover bid(s) come to nothing. I have also held Rio for 6 years now (also a two-bagger), so diversification-wise, I'm pretty much at my capacity for miners. The dividends are compelling though.

£28-£30 seems to be the realistic range that financial analysts are talking about. Anything less probably is not worth the hassle. Given the cyclical nature of miners, AAL could easily be nudging £40 again in a couple of years’ time, especially with Woodsmith online.

My only reservation about the merger is the prospect of holding shares in the spin-off companies, which makes portfolio housekeeping a bit messier. Also, if and when the time comes to sell, it means more transaction fees.

Savage_KeyboardR

I think you need to reread your own posts.

You are clearly conflating macro-economic government policies, which affect all large companies (most of which haven't seen an 90% drop in market cap in the last 5 years) with specific government actions toward a single company (e.g. a decision by a future Labour government not to renew Capita contracts). These are two completely different things, which you seem incapable of comprehending.

Given that the sp leapt by 4.45% just before close, the market appears to have got wind that something was afoot here.

I hold BHP and AAL. I'll be quite pleased if a merger does go ahead, as I think the consolidated mining behemoth will not take long to become more efficient and valuable than the two separate companies.

S_KR. So, it is the government's fault that Capita has been such a $hit show for the past few years? Plenty of companies (including outsourcing firms) have managed to hold their own over the last few years, so I'm afraid your argument simply does not hold water. (I don't support this government, by the way.)

If my position is 'curious', yours is utterly bizarre.

S_KR. You seem to have completely misunderstood what I have been saying, so let me put it in simple terms.

Capita have performed badly for the last 6 years (hence the current sp). They are, by most measures, a failing company. Things may not get better for Capita under a new government. Indeed, they may get even worse.