Member Info for RogueRiver

“Where is the evidence that OPEC has collapsed?”

If OPEC are no longer able to agree (and enforce) production quotas, then they are no longer an effective cartel. (Not in my humble opinion, but based on reports from a reputable financial publication.)

OPEC has effectively collapsed and the pol is now a race to the bottom. Even the Saudis are not pretending anymore. It will be good to see Saudi Arabia and Russia suffering. Further China stimulus might prevent a total crash in the price, but the days of $100 pb appear to be well and truly over.

https://archive.ph/qk2ug

I don’t think you can go far wrong buying at this level. Keep raking in the generous yield (which, even if it slips, will almost certainly beat the FTSE average by a good margin). Just don’t expect the market cap to make any appreciable gains.

During Covid I bought Lloyds Bank at 30p and HSBC at £3.20, so I’m happy to have double bagged on both. I already held BP pre-Covid, so didn’t fancy throwing good money after bad. I bought in 2018, on the talk of the ‘big recovery’ for BP. That was my mistake. I held for 5 years and it went nowhere. I’m very glad I got shut of it, especially given its current trajectory. Perhaps I’m just a little jaded from the experience, but we can all be very wise with hindsight.

I wasn’t interested in buying more at sub-£2 during Covid, so why would I want to buy at sub-£4 now? There are far better yielding and more stable prospects out there. We’ve all bought duds before. The trick is to learn from your mistakes, not keep repeating them.

High end brands are all about image and the trouble with Burberry is that they have lost much of their lustre. They should stick to their knitting, as a quality brand of traditional rainwear and accessories, but that will inevitably mean a scaled-down company, with a much reduced market cap. Even at this sp, it's a risky punt - and not one that I'll be taking.

Exactly. It was probably a 'bargain' when it sank to £1.85 during Covid. If you didn't buy it then, why on earth would you buy it now?

Indeed, long gone are the days when the Saudis could call the shots. It will be even more gratifying to see Russia suffering from the depressed oil price.

This will probably sink back into the 300s, especially if, as forecast, Brent Crude falls to $50-60 next year. I held BP for 5 years and it went nowhere, even after dividend reinvestments. I sold at break even last year and put the proceeds into a 5-year fixed rate cash ISA @ 5.2%AER. That's about the same yield as BP now, but without any risk to capital.

I’ve already ‘paid’ and I won’t be compounding original my error by putting any more money into this disaster zone.

I'm afraid I have limited confidence in any company that has managed to lose 83% of its value in 5 years. Please don't try to blame Covid et al. First Group, a similar company to MCG, have gained by 26% over the same period. MCG has improved of late, but from an extremely low bar.

I'll be happy to suspend my scepticism if and when most of the debt pile has gone and a decent dividend is being paid.

Still an awful holding. A twenty percent hike of very little is still very little. Get back to me when they've cleared the debt pile and started paying a dividend again. Meantime, I'll keep this - the worst performing share I've ever had the misfortune to hold - on the back burner.

My current holdings combined yield circa 6% (all FTSE blue chips). DGE is an overrated under-payer that has been going nowhere for the last half decade (see also Unilever).

Whenever I've been tempted to buy into DGE, I've been put off by the poor yield. After this news, that is hardly likely to improve. You can get better returns by sticking your money in the Post Office.

I thought I might buy at £8, but little would persuade me to buy now. Burberry has become a flopper brand. The should have remained a niche brand, selling raincoats and other traditional clothing and accessories. Instead, they have trashed the brand. It’s hard to see this even being attractive as a takeover proposition now.

Primary legislation in the UK (that is, Acts of Parliament) can only be challenged on limited EU and human rights law grounds. If a Labour government were to raise an extra new tax on all existing British energy companies, those companies would not be able to challenge the tax under competition law.

I was thinking I might start at 8.

Top trader Andurand is forecasting that the copper price will rocket to $40,000 a tonne. Anyone betting against any copper miner for the foreseeable future is almost certainly onto a loser. As for Anglo's other commodities, I'd rather they just trundled along and hung onto them for now, than sold them at bargain basement prices, just to assuage a few impatient IIs. Both BHP and Rio are two-baggers for me (in 2 and 5 years respectively), so I'm quite happy to wait for Anglo to catch up.

BHP's pre-demerger condition was always completely unreasonable. If they wanted the copper division so desperately, they should have been more flexible and taken the baby with the bathwater. I would have preferred a straightforward all-share merger between the two - and then they could have sorted out the structure afterwards. Hopefully Glencore will now come in with a more enlightened approach. I don't really care if they don't though. I'm quite happy to hang onto Anglo and wait it out in the long-term.

500. 375. Those were the days.