Member Info for RogerMellie50

Cheers Pharmall, although I'll be flying back to Manc Airport in a few hours, more's the pity!

Morning gents,

Just got back on-line after a few days hiking. I think just general promotion about collaborations coming out of the exhibition creating a bit of buying.

EOS, the aussie firm, put this out yesterday. Doesn't seem to be anything new, just a re-stating of the MOU for the cameras:

https://eos-aus.com/news/msi-defence-systems-and-eos-announce-new-strategic-relationship-to-strengthen-market-leadership-in-the-uk-and-australia/

Evening Pharmall,

I read TKO's Q2 numbers and latest presentation, and then the Jefferies talk - I've joined you with a few grand's worth. Wanted £5k, but as you said, difficult to buy, that was all I could manage with Barclays. Away next week, but put an order in for a few more. Do you have direct market access, out of interest? Could you get what you wanted?

Problem with being heavy cash is it's termping to go overboard punting, and I've never had much success with miners, but the numbers/plan looked decent.

Read Avingtrans write up in IC today. Looks a good proposition, but need to give it a bit more research.

I bought more MTI this week. Never going to blow the doors off, but demonstrably cheep on current forecasts. 5% yield as well. Happy to give it 18 months or so.

Evening John,

I know w what you mean about 'bird in the hand'. The board were deliberately playing it 'cool' at the AGM - 'in no rush, see what happens the next 6 months etc'. There's been an increased offer, but only from one party. No counter offers as yet (as far as we know).

I'm off to France for a week's hiking/cheese eating/wine drinking now that the school holidays are over. Will be completely offline - hopefully we don't get another Black Monday whilst I'm away!

Hi Pharmall,

Thanks for that, very informative as ever. My comment about the property valuation was just trying to put in an absolute floor for a valuation (as if they weren't even sold as a going concern), which I think would still trump John's miserly 3 million figure!

Applying what you just said to the archetypal 'un trendy' industrial business, Renold (has been making chains for 200 years, and nowt else), which recently accepted a bid from private equity, then EV/Sales would come out as 0.76x, whereas EV/EBIT (not EBITDA) would come in at 9x, so bang on the money there.

I vaguely remember you threatening to do that before John, although with addition of a firework inserted somewhere about your person...😉

I have no idea what they might be worth, amateurishly trying to work out some type of a rough figure. Hopefully a sale goes through and we'll find out!

looking at 25 annual report, research and development spending doubled to 2.4mil from 1.18 in 2024. hopefully this will translate to some sales!

a while ago, i think we tried a bit of a ***-packet calculation as to what the non-defence divisions might be valued at. going through the report, the company's total property assests were valued higher at £15.921 million. this was done in march this year, i assume as precursor to testing the waters of a potential sale. 4 properties, norwich, doncaster, rock hill (us) and krakow, poland. poland is purely petrol stations, norwich is purely defence, doncaster is split with all 3 non-defence divisions, and us is mixed defence/forklifts. would be interesting to know how that 15.921mil valuation is split between the various sites.

MSi at London defence expo at the Excel coming up. I think the 20mm system is a new offering. Also a collaboration with Milrem, who are an Estonian outfit.

https://www.msi-dsl.com/msi-ds-dsei-2025/

Ask your landlord for a shareholder's discount, John.

Hi Pharmall,

I agree re COST, but I thought the same thing in 2019! I'm going to pick up some more this week though.

Will give those two a look, thanks.

Interesting point about Diageo. I'm sure your wife has a much more detailed sense of it from her work, but it seems a mixed picture to me, anecdotally and from what I observe. I was at my old university's campus for the first time in nearly 20 years recently, and the Student Union bar looked more like a coffee shop and was deserted. My friends tell me their teenage/early 20s children aren't interested in boozing. Conversely, I was in Lille in France early in the summer, large student population, and it was absolutely heaving with young people knocking back the pints. I think I read a surge in Guiness sales is due to younger woman getting a taste for it? I'd be interested to know what the trend is globally.

Good news for UK ship building, but also good news here if they're armed with MSi's systems, as per the RN's T26 frigates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/31/norway-british-made-frigates-13point5-billion-deal.html

Results & Trading Updates

Bunzl resumes £200mn buyback as profits tumble

The distributor is grappling with deflation and soft demand, along with execution problems in North America

Published on August 26, 2025

by Valeria Martinez

North America adjusted operating profits down nearly 15 per cent

Around £120mn spent on acquisitions year-to-date

Bunzl’s (BNZL) shock profit warning in April will still be front of mind for many shareholders, but the FTSE 100 distributor offered some relief by resuming its £200mn buyback programme and reaffirming guidance for a stronger second half.

First-half results came in as expected, with adjusted operating profit down 7.6 per cent at constant currencies to £405mn and margins slipping a percentage point to 7 per cent. Volume pressures, deflation and soft demand all weighed on the company.

North America was the biggest drag, with profit down nearly 15 per cent. The company blamed disruption from a new organisational model in its largest food service and grocery business, the loss of high-margin business with a major customer and slower progress with the rollout of its own-brand products.

Peel Hunt analyst Andrew Nussey said problems in the US “now look contained” following management changes, cost savings and a deeper own-brand push. However, continental Europe also struggled with weak end-markets and high costs. The UK and Ireland were lifted by the May 2024 Nisbets acquisition, although underlying growth was flat.

Importantly, net debt is below target and cash conversion was 97 per cent, giving the company room to pursue deals while organic growth remains soft. Bunzl has spent £120mn on five acquisitions in the year to date, including a personal protection equipment company in Mexico and a food service distributor in Spain.

If April’s profit warning proves to be a one-off and the focus returns to the long-term attractions of Bunzl’s compounding model, the current rating of 14 times forward earnings could be an attractive opportunity. For now, though, with demand still soft and execution issues not fully resolved, we remain cautious. Hold.

Hi John,

I did quite a bit of buying around the April tariff tantrum, but have sold them all now. Diageo was one I looked at, but didn't buy in the end. Is there still talk about spinning off Guiness? I've looked at Bunzl before too. IC has a hold rating on them aftet the buyback re-started, but was cautiously optimistic. I'll copy and paste the write up for you.

Morning Pharmall,

Probably being conservative, but that's just groceries for my mum. If I factor in all the price rises since the last budget, from council going bust and hiking CT, charging for bins etc, to individual costs such as home care for when I'm not around, etc, then it's come to the stage where she can only just meet her outgoings through income. Fortunately, she has children who can afford to top her up, but most people aren't that fortunate.

That's a lot of tomatoes! I probably do about 10k a year, mostly beef toms.

Have you got your eye on anything at the moment? I'm currently very heavy cash. Got my main holdings, and then the rest fixed income. Will probably top up on Costain, as I still think it's cheap and the drop was overdone. Looking for some inspiration from somewhere...

Good try. Rolls, Imp and Tate and Lyle being the third.

Just about the get on the plane, but I'll give you one more (and no googling): Out of the original FT30 index from 1935, which 3 companies are currently constituents of the FTSE 100?

Correct!

Beer's a substantial part of my diet as well John, but not takeaways as I live in a national park about half an hour from the nearest small town! I do eat at the pub twice a week though.

My flight's been delayed, so I'll give you an LSE trivia 'starter for 10' John:

During which historical period did 4 of the largest 5 'one-day percentage returns' of the FTSE 100 index occur?

a) Dot Com Boom 1999-2000

b) Post Covid recovery 2020-2022

c) Financial Crisis 2008-2009

Morning John,

Nividia's value is quite staggering. If we are in an 'AI bubble' of sorts, then it will make the burst even more brutal.

I sympathise with prices going up. Not an essential item, I know, but a chain coffee shop I go to occasionally has put prices up 6 times this year! Doing the grocery shop every week for my mum this year, I notice the price increases as I'm always buying exactly the same things. I'm slightly shielded from the effects, as I grow my own and have chickens and get certain things like milk at cost, but I notice I seem to be paying out another 100/150quid more a month than last year