Member Info for RogerMellie50

Hi Pharmall,

The H/Y mentioned a 'substantial' amount of work in H1 not being booked as revenue until H2, or 'in following years'. What did you make of WIP in the current assests in half year figures?

For any other company, I'd agree that a strategic revue, if positive, would be released to the markey separately, but I just don't think MSi's board even has a concept of the value in doing so. I got a slighly more optimistic reply from Ms Ashcroft last year when I asked about online access to AGM: "We'll look in to it for next year". Agreed, we should start pestering her.

On John's question, are you able to very briefly explain what these zero trades are all about?

Evening John,

We're only 8 weeks or so from FY results - my guess is that if there is any news, it will probably be rolled in to that.

We should also start badgering them about some type of Zoom/online access to the AGM (I don't know of any other companies that don't provide it these days). I'm fairly sure I'll be abroad end of July, but if not then I will attend.

Morning John,

Had a reply off the company about the 'strategic review' - can't give a precise timeframe, but will do so as soon as they are able to. It was the exact same wording as a response to the same question Pharmall asked a bit ago! Copy and paste.

I'd still put a fiver on them working out a sale of part of the non-defence divisions, but that's based on nothing but boredom-based speculation.

Happy Easter to all.

Evening John,

Haha, happens to us all. I kept hold of Woodside, as I'm a LTH for the divi, which I think is well covered by some asset sales recently.

Will let you know if/when I get a response. A 'normal' company, having let a stated deadline pass, might give a 'we previously stated x, we'll update in due course' RNS, but obviously that's beyond/beneath MSI. Maybe they're just concerned about shareholder value and keeping admin costs low? I know RNS is on a 'pay-as-you-go' basis, but does anyone know the fee? £150?

Glorious day up here in Cumbria. Wheeled the BBQ out and steadily making my through a crate of Bowness Brewery beer. Hope everyone else is enjoying the weather.

Afternoon John,

Took a 9% gain on BP at open this morning. Not bad for a day's 'work', but I expect volatility to continue for much longer. There are a couple of shares I was planning on buying for this year's ISA as medium to long term holds, which I had my eye on prior to 'Liberation Day', but didn't buy this morning. Still think I could get them cheaper.

In MSI news, the US subsidary is currently at a large naval expo in the US.

BP currenty up 5% on NYSE. Might just cash in tomorrow at open for a quick bonus.

Evening John,

Mad Donald has just struck again! I too bought BP today and yesterday, as well as some Woodside over on ASX. Crude price up and down the landlady's drawers as I write...

morning john,

i've emailed the company about the 'strategic review' (as i'm sure have many others). will let you know any response.

it's certainly been an 'eventful' last week or so, enjoyed reading your comments. i'm in the fortunate position to have been very much 'in cash' prior to wednesday's village fete in the white house rose garden. partly some housekeeping/juggling prior to end of tax year, partly some apprehension about what trump would announce. kept hold of all my msi and only a few others. i'm not sure it's quite safe to go back in the water yet though!

i have bought some oilies as a bit of mid-term punt though. back of a *** packet rationale - oversold on the prospect of economic downturn and supply surplus which may not be as severe as thought and, unfortunately, i'm almost convinced iran is going to be bombed heavily this year by us/israel in response to their nuclear programme

morning john,

i've emailed the company about the 'strategic review' (as i'm sure have many others). will let you know any response.

it's certainly been an 'eventful' last week or so, enjoyed reading your comments. i'm in the fortunate position to have been very much 'in cash' prior to wednesday's village fete in the white house rose garden. partly some housekeeping/juggling prior to end of tax year, partly some apprehension about what trump would announce. kept hold of all my msi and only a few others. i'm not sure it's quite safe to go back in the water yet though!

i have bought some oilies as a bit of mid-term punt though. back of a *** packet rationale - oversold on the prospect of economic downturn and supply surplus which may not be as severe as thought and, unfortunately, i'm almost convinced iran is going to be bombed heavily this year by us/israel in response to their nuclear programme.

Only 100 quid, but I've always taken a pay first, get a rebate later approach! I vary from year to year, having previously lived and earnt abroad, and have never fiddled anything unlike a fair few of my colleagues (I had to ask for my fee in cash for a particular short-term contract, whilst everyone else took Rolexes back on their wrist through customs after an extended 'holiday' abroad). Most of my income is shielded from tax now anyway.

Hopefully the Chairman sticks to his own timetable, and we get some news this week.

evening john,

i can't help you on the zero trades, i'm afraid. my knowledge of buying and selling mechanisms is very poor. i agree with you on prompter payment of dividends, and quarterly reporting though!

still amuses me how lse.co.uk censors 'bab****': my sense of humour hasn't changed much since i was 13.

we were told in h/y report that the company expects to update shareholders on their 'stategic review' by the end of the financial year, so should be with us next week if they're true to their word. wait and see.

i was handed a 100 quid fine by hmrc for late reporting this week, despite the portal clearly showing that i submitted on the 9th of january. cannot fathom why. bunch of clowns.

Hi Pharmall,

Yes, HILS's P/E has always been quite high, but I put it down to US exposure. The latest full-year presentaion is 'good-reading' and I've been quite impressed with the new Dutch CEO (previous two CEO-ships have resulted in takeovers, Devro and Tyman, which is food for thought). They have a good record of beating expectations, which in some ways is a bit of a nuissance because it always puts analyst forecasts at the top end.

Bought some Renew last week. Could be poor timing with Treasury statement next week, but I think it's one for the back drawer (along with plenty of other moth-eaten shares of mine that haven't quite lived up to initial expectations....).

Are you still holding WG? I see RC Fornax had a decent first T/U this week and a bit of coverage and initial price targets. Still haven't bought, but should do I think.

Hi Pharmall,

Yes, I'm not sure about market interest in BB over Cost/Kier. Possibly their US revenue, and then also the other non-UK revenue through Gammon in Hong Kong etc?

Most UK defence firms taking a hair-cut today, QQ 20% down. Not had a proper look, but seems like delays rather than lost revenue? I sold MTI Wireless for 63p at open. Happy with a quick 15%, but will keep an eye out to buy back in as outlook looks strong.

Yes, you can sometimes get some good info from the 'coal face' as it were. Similar thing with me years ago with a North West Brewery I had shares in. Went to the AGM as it was at one of their hotels near me. Wasn't impressed with the directors and their wasn't enough staff on for the event. Went in to one of their other hotels shortly afterwards for a quick drink - it was like the Mary Celeste! No-one at the front desk or bar, I could have pulled myself a pint and walked out with the cash register. Eventually found a Moroccan man with no English coming out of the kitchen. After convincing him I wasn't from the Border Agency, we had a chat in French and he told me it was the most shambolic place he'd ever worked in his life! Promptly sold my shares later that afternoon.

*peer, rather!

Evening Pharmall,

Interesting - do you currently own Kier or Costain? I have both, and agree they're both dirt cheap. Have held Costain for a fair while, and decided to average down instead off sell up after the charges on those overruning contracts tanked the SP 2019 and again 2020. Currently break-even. I would add more on current valuation and prospects, but have enough. I bought Kier the other week after results as well.

Have you looked at Hill and Smith? I've held for over a decade now, and they've been one of my best investments (I think I could have them as my specialist subject on Mastermind!). P/E of 20, so higher than UK piers like Kier and BB, but they compound every year (revenue, margin improvement, EPS, OP) and get 75% of revenue from US now. I think they could also benefit heavily from Trump's corporate tax giveaway for US-manafacturing firms down to 15% (if that gets passed in Congress or isn't just some pie-in-the-sky figure he blurted out pre-election).

Only other one on my radar is Renew Holdings. Held last year briefly, but opted to take a quick 10%, which was a blessing as they've come off the boil since and then were sold heavily after a January T/U said Rail revenue would be down on softness from latest control period. Swedebank have been buying heavily since the dip, up to 6% now.

Let me know what you come up with!

I know nobody's reading this, as Hill and Smith is as dull as ditch water, but just going through the F/Y presentation. Effective tax rate of 25%. Given Trump's corporate tax reduction plans, and with 3/4 of revenue coming from US, could be a huge EPS increase here.

NY resolutiin to manage my holding more, rather than just sitting back. Have stops on both Concurrent and Chemring now, so a reasonable profit locked in, hopefully.

Yes, I think MTI are probably fairly valued on current year's forecast, but will see on Monday.

Did you buy any Senior in the end after results?

Correction - it appears to be the 'Seahawk' variant with Supacat:

https://www.msi-dsl.com/msi-defence-systems-idex-2025-abu-dhabi/

We were told an update on the 'strategic review' by the end of current year, so by MSi's reporting, that should be with us within 3 weeks.

John - the IC's paid subscription only, put it was just John Lee giving it a brief mention on a podcast he has there. I was right, Lord Lee was on the BoD a long time ago. He has a holding here (not declarable, yet, like in Concurrent), but he probably plays golf regulaly with the directors and is clearly confident.

Pharmall - my sibling used to work in the NHS. When 'NHS ENgland' was launched 2012, he said 'give it 12 years'. Close! I've been proactively managing my new holdings this year, sold and bought back in to both Concurrent and Chemring, to good effect so far. I also bought MTI Wireless Edge a few weeks ago for 55p, closed at 68 today and results on Monday. Are you aware of them? I think I'll buy some RC Fornax for the back drawer this coming week as well.

Evening all,

Msi have 2 land-based systems - Terrahawk Paladin (previously VSHORAD), and a smaller Terrahawk RWS. My understanding, from piecing together previous company reports and press/social media articles, is that there have been sales of the Paladin to the MoD as part of an aid package to Ukraine, and then one to the Jordanian Airforce (not mentioned explicitly by MSi, but confirmed through joining the dots). I'm not aware of any other confirmed sales of either system. However, they've been promoting a vehicle-based collaboration with Supacat at recent expos, and that looks like the RWS system.

If you monitor their website, recruitment efforts continue at pace. I found this today as well, but given MSi's opaque reporting, no idea if the contract's already in the coffers or WiP.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/malaysian-government-satisfied-with-progress-on-five-lcs-vessels-despite-1-68-percent-delay/