Member Info for RogerJolly

Taking to excuses now are we? You seem to be saying you cant read English. This document is plain enough, and as you are the one making false claims it is not on me to prove you wrong but for you to prove your false claims. I have even provided the means for you to do so.

Unless or until you do then people reading this thread will judge you on merit of its clear intention.

HY you can believe all you want but you are talking b******* and it becomes clearer why. I suggest you read the PSA the link was provided for you.

HY, seeing I took the time to do the research, I would have expected at least an acknowledgement to correcting your view that exploration costs are not recovered.

"under Tanzania’s standard Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs), both exploration and development costs are typically classed as “cost oil/gas” and are recoverable, provided they’re approved by the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) and documented according to the PSA’s accounting procedures."

I even go to the trouble of tracking down the model PSA agreement for you.

Sadly you deflect away to an argument with crusty so let people can make of that what they will.

If anybody is interested the latest model share agreement was 2013 and not 2015 as I had said the earlier edition it replaced was 2004 not 2002.

You can access the full document here but do bear in mind this is the model on which a standard agreement is based: So, not the actual agreement because the individual terms would have been negotiated and of course in 2022 there was an amendment between the government and the JV

I have tracked down a stored copy here...

https://tzdpg.or.tz/storage/2022/09/Model-Production-Sharing-Agreement.pdf

HY "Ntorya development • First gas planned for end of 2024 • Targeting 140 MMcfd = gross revenues $178 MM p.a. • Up to $40 MM per annum net to Aminex (during cost recovery period)1 1. Based on management assumptions and Kiliwani North gas terms"

The above covers a part of my point as made in my last post "Only when Capex is fully recovered will the percentage the country retains increase up to the level that is actually agreed in the PSA." If we take into account the planning and push going on right now in country, by the time we get to the level of paying those full percentages we will be earning so much more from the extra gas they will be pulling. I think you are creating concern where none exists to be honest. Whether that is deliberate or not is only know by you, but it doesn't concern me in the slightest and particularly more so having consulted my academic industry researcher as follows,,,

Does the Aminex ARA JV PSA allow Exploration costs to be recovered as well as development costs?

Response:

Yes — under Tanzania’s standard Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs), both exploration and development costs are typically classed as “cost oil/gas” and are recoverable, provided they’re approved by the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) and documented according to the PSA’s accounting procedures.

Here’s the breakdown:

Exploration Costs:

Includes seismic surveys, geological studies, and exploration drilling.

Recoverable if incurred within the contract area and in line with the agreed work programme.

Development Costs:

Covers field development drilling, well completion, surface facilities, pipelines to the delivery point, etc.

Also recoverable, often with priority in the cost recovery process.

Limitations:

The PSA will specify a cost recovery ceiling (often 50–70% of gross production in Tanzania’s older PSAs, but Aminex has said theirs is more favourable).

Costs must be audited and approved by TPDC.

Some categories (e.g., marketing costs, interest on loans) might be partially or fully non-recoverable.

In Aminex’s case, if their PSA is indeed more favourable than the standard, that could mean a higher cost recovery limit or accelerated recovery schedule, allowing them to recoup both exploration and development outlays faster — and start taking profit gas earlier.

Hope that helps allay your fears

HY "when AEX share of capex (USD 35m) for this phase has been recovered gas revenue will drop sharply. Failing to menthion this assumption, is really misleading."

Why would you say that is misleading when you do the same when you only talk of the Capex of $35m. Have you not given a thought to the many millions spent that got us to the position of being able to farm out in the first place? What is the real total spend? Would you like to tell everyone that true figure? I think you would be less seen as less hypocritical if you did because that will be the figure we can claim over the coming years as production is ramped up. Only when Capex is fully recovered will the percentage the country retains increase up to the level that is actually agreed in the PSA. At that point we are talking broadly the same sort of terms that countries use around the world. Governments always take a share, it is expected and nothing to fear. When reaching agreement those numbers are taken into account for viability of any project! As said previously by Aminex themselves. The farm out free carry is expected to take us to $40m net cash /annum

P26 I would tend to agree with you "Trying to imply that a further 65–75% haircut comes after net revenue is not only inaccurate; it’s actively misleading to anyone reading this board in good faith, which is no doubt your intention here…"

Firstly it is being overlooked that the company have achieved a much more favourable deal in their PSA. Granted we do not know the exact figures as for obvious reasons the Tanzanians wish to keep the details commercially sensitive. It also should be remembered that we have had some serious hard ball being played over recent years to get us to where we are.

Also those sort of figures were the ones we may have seen in the 2002 PSA of the time but it was reviewed and changed I think it was in 2015. Sadly the link I have for that model PSA of that time is now unavailable on the TPDC website. I only have records of a different part of that agreement that guaranteed us the the right to a FFD licence which certain people didn't want to accept even when I quoted and linked it in print. Anyway, if somebody has a new link I would be grateful to receive it. Of cause we then have the recent amendment in 2022 signed by the JV which will no doubt have those favourable conditions written within.

As for the note about assuming full costs being recovered. It is true the standard PSA agreement allows full cost recovery but that is usually only 50% in the first year and so on recovered beyond.

I also note the source of the article provided is AI generated ChatGpt from 3 years ago when it was nowhere near as sophisticated as it is now. My understanding from using academic industry AI research now is that those figures could be as low as 40 to 50% but as P26 infers, in my view it is a red herring as the $40million/annum was stated as net cash flow and in my view any royalties and percentages will have already been deducted before payment

I see what was meant now but 29' was a buy it was two one million trades, one a buy one a sell. Nothing significant in that

30' ?

Definitely jiggling I just tried to buy one share and it came in at 2p whereas normally you would see that coming in at the top price to point one. Meanwhile they're still giving 206 for £2k worth

Yes they still want 2.06 for £2k

The price is 2.01 but they offer 2.036 for 900k tells you they want stock

HL will give 2.036 for 900k call for anything above

Hold for Gold here

Boost for industrial drive as Tanzania unveils five SEZs - The government has officially designated five areas as special economic zones (SEZs) to fast track industrial growth

https://x.com/AminXunofficial/status/1955900933763961065

Every one

Just done a quick total so far today and it looks like two buys to everyone approximately

If you know their games it should help.

https://youtu.be/HYbFlC7ohbA?si=oVZswYIqNn2Yl6pO

Matt I think that is fairly easy one to answer. By the time free carry is used up we will be in the money (stated as being $40mill/annum nett) and of course beyond that we will naturally have to fund our share of any further works.

SC "250,000 buy at 2p, but the 970,000 UT at 2p is very bullish, to go into auction and come out with that much stock at that price indicates strong buying pressure in the background." They didn't show us that one in the trades. Is it in reserve for a late reported scare story later lol

They may play games but have they got anything that will breakdown superglue?

Well as you know I don't take much stall by that stuff but I hope you are proved right