Member Info for robs12

Livinthe dream, they have staff working on renewables...

See here: https://www.parkmeadgroup.com/about_us/our_people/senior_operations_team/

Their financial analyst, Henry Steward is here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/henry-steward-244350140/

In short, recruited as an accounts assistant 3 and a bit years ago as a new graduate. Now financial analyst "I now have particular focus on renewable energy project development".

Group Asset Manager, Andrew Smith is "heading up the Land, Property and Renewables Division." here: https://www.linkedin.com/search/results/all/?keywords=Andrew%20Smith%20parkmead&origin=GLOBAL_SEARCH_HEADER&sid=5KL

In short, recruited just over 3 years ago, a chartered surveyor who states "I am interested in acquiring development land for standard commercial and residential development as well as considering some rural sites where there may be an opportunity for onshore renewable energy."

I guess he's working on the Pitreadie planning application? Or they've contracted it out to a consultancy...or it's not happening?

Just wish they'd get on and get the planning application in for Pitreadie....

Acquired in September 2019 we were told - "Specific potential has been identified for the installation of numerous wind turbines, a solar farm and a biomass production facility."

Over two years later and we get in the November prelims - "Technical studies are ALREADY UNDERWAY on a specific location within the Group’s onshore land portfolio for the potential development of a large wind farm" (My CAPS).

Now we get "the Group will benefit from Kempstone Hill's established relationships and expertise as it looks to advance the opportunities within the Group's existing renewable energy developments."

Whoopie do. How many more years of "advancing the opportunities" is it going to take before a planning application goes in?!

Well, it's not going to excite many.
But we can at least think of it as their first producing asset that they have majority control over - gotta start somewhere.

Davde, take the Sm3 productions figures (gas + condensate) for each field, multiply by the PMG net % (7.5% for Diever, 15% for the others) which gives total Sm3 net to PMG for the month. Then divide by the number of days in the month. Then convert from Sm3 to boe with a factor - I actually convert to MMscf then to boe.
SM3 to MMscf is x 0.0000353, then MMscf to boe is x 172, so to use a single factor it would be x 0.0060716.
E.g. for November, Total Sm3 for the 4 fields is 17106320, net to PMG is 1390968.45 Sm3 = 282boed.

To convert Sm3 to MWh is x 0.011111, so Nov would be ~ 15,455 MWh for the month, with average TTF gas price approx £7.40 per MWh, so maybe a shade over £1m revenue, less costs. Though we don't know that they are actually realizing full TTF prices, so that is a very rough and ready estimate.....
Using the same methodology I got to €4.4m revenue in the first 4 months of financial year, whereas PMG stated they'd made €3m revenue, so a big discrepancy. I may be doing something wrong...

Could be due to November's production figures down again compared with September/October:

Brakel - zero (again)
Diever - down 5.4%
Geesbrug - down 19%
Grolloo - down 56%

So they're not exactly making the most of the spike unfortunately...

Doyle, they're not producing anywhere near that figure (unfortunately).

September and October production net to PMG was 299 boepd.

Surely hope so SOTB.

It had better do...

Don't forget they've raised some £78 million in the last ten years, most of which is disappeared for no return so far. I suspect they'll struggle to get any interest for more raises given that track record...?

The problem is, there have been 'so many things in the pipeline' for a decade, and none have come to fruition, which casts serious doubts on whether any will...

E.g. Linda Cross had Pitreadie in 2015, PMG bought it in August 2019. Two and half years later (or six and a half years depending on your point of view!) and there's still no sign of any planning application for the wind farm. If ever there is an application made, it is still many years away from a farm actually getting operational.

Every single project is the same: GPA (how many years now...? And of which Lowlander a major part now gone), Skerryvore (awarded 2018, no news yet), Playtpus (acquired 2011, now gone), Pharos (2011, gone), Spaniards (failure 2012), Athena disaster, Shetland (awarded 2015, one of the two now gone, silence on the remaining prospect), Polecat and Marten (gone), etc.

Whilst the potential is still there without doubt, there are serious questionmarks in my mind over whether any of it will actually come to fruition.
If it is the NL gas that is now center stage and the 'new trophy', then it's time to run for cover, the production rates are falling fast.

These are the 2021 NL production figures net to PMG up to October (boepd):

Jan: 390
Feb: 407
Mar: 386
Apr: 383
May: 383
Jun: 336
Jul: 380
Aug: 378
Sept: 299
Oct: 299

Looks like Brakel was shut in (no gas produced), but Diever production up a little (5%) since September...though still lower than previous months

These are the 2021 production figures net to PMG up to September (boepd):

Jan: 390
Feb: 407
Mar: 386
Apr: 383
May: 383
Jun: 336
Jul: 380
Aug: 378
Sept: 299

500 boepd looks somewhat hopeful....but we'll be able to see soon enough.

Reposting from a little while back:

"The finance director, Ryan Stroulger, has invested some £250K at an average price of £1.56/share, and has approx. 420K options also."

"Before the windfarm deal when TC effectively traded a load for more shares at 50p, he had invested approx. £13.3m in PMG, at an average price of 70p/share, and has some 9m in the money options with exercise prices of 35p and 41p. So after the farm deal, the average is a little lower, but still well above the current SP."

Ryan needs the shareprice a LOT higher to be in the money. His buy in of shares was significant and at a much higher price than now.

Thanks SOTB. Some interesting comments.

Given the latest Finncap report still includes Sanda North and South in the figures (adding up to approx half the prospective valuation), I'd definitely take it with a pinch of salt.
Or a tablespoon even...

"Just not the one we really want!!"

Indeed.
I didn't really comment on the results, but have to say I was not at all happy that the NL gas seemed to take center stage both in the results and the AR.
It has been a 'nice to have' for a few years now, providing a little cashflow whilst the big deal (GPA) comes to fruition. I have always believed the NL gas was just a sideshow.
But with this AR I have real fears that they are going to fold on GPA and the NL gas is all they have..
I'm still holding a big stake (for me) , but getting a little twitchy..

It just means that whilst they held a 15% working interest in the fields since 2012 when they acquired them, they were effectively paying 7.5% of that out as a royalty. Now they don't pay the royalty.

I haven't been able to find any references to this royalty in any of PMG's communications - certainly nothing in the original announcement when they bought them from Dyas. For 9 years they had been telling us they had 15%, which I guess is true, but pretty rubbish to hide the fact they were only receiving 7.5% of the revenue...

The production figures make for somewhat depressing reading I'm afraid.
PMG's net (gas + condensate) last December was 82MMscf. Septembers figure was 52MMscf, steadily declining.
Mar, Apr, May 2018 were all up at 140MMscf.

Not sure if this link will work, but my production graphs 2020-2021:

[url=https://imgur.com/tyMtJ0A][img]http://i.imgur.com/tyMtJ0A.jpg[/img][/url]

https://imgur.com/tyMtJ0A

PMG have minor interests in 4 fields:

Brakel - 15% (Vermilion 45%, EBN 40%)
Grolloo - 15% (Vermilion 45%, EBN 40%)
Geesbrug - 15% (Vermilion 45%, EBN 40%)
Diever West - 7.5% (Vermilion 52.5%, EBN 40%)

In rough numbers for 2021 each field contributed to their total volume approx:

Brakel - 7.9% (this the royalty was bought)
Grolloo - 0.9% (this the royalty was bought)
Geesbrug - 8.7% (this the royalty was bought)
Diever West - 82.6%

So Diever is by far the most significant field. Diever production has reduced from approx 8200 MMscf in 2017 to 5131 in 2021.

You can see what each of these fields produces each month here:

hxxps://www.nlog.nl/datacenter/brh-overview?lang=en

The production figures are updated monthly, so you can work out how much they have produced well ahead of when the results are announced.

September figure for Diever-02 - produced 14.75m Nm3 of gas and 97 M3 condensate, compared with 19.9m Nm3 + 117 M3 in Aug.

Brakel-01 down from 795K Nm3 to 216K Nm3 from Aug to Sept.
Geesbrug-01 up from 840K to 1.3m.
Grolloo-01 down from 535K to 347K.

So not really good news if wanting to make the most of the current gas price spike....

Oh dear....