Member Info for robs12

GLA!!

Interesting, they have been released third Friday in November for many years. A delay could be good or bad I guess...

So, big day tomorrow....

For giggles, my prediction is 5,100 boepd gross (approx 840 net to PMG), £6m revenue, a small loss.
And little to no positive real news on anything else....
Can't wait.

Results are on Friday and are to end June, so before the NL gas price really jtook off....that should show more in the results next May.

@Doyle....You can see their production rates for yourself here:

https://www.nlog.nl/datacenter/brh-overview?lang=en

Search for diever, which is ~90% of PMG's interest in production. PMG have 7.5%, 15% on the other 3.

For all the fields PMG have an interest in (all 4 of them) it's down ~23% on last year. No workovers on Diever.

I only posted this same info last Wednesday...do keep up.

No planning application for the windfarm yet, so that is still years away, if ever. I suspect the house is finished by now though.

Hi Axe,

Looks good in bits IMHO.
Don't think the increased capex impacts PMG IMHO. Vermilion drilled two new NL wells, but not on PMG blocks.

NL revenue is up significantly over 2020 - revenue up approx 206%, $/boe up from 19.54 to 69.67 = + 256%), but volumes were lower by approx 14% (based on the above - revenue/avg $/boe).

Specifically for the wells that PMG have an interest in, production has declined considerable each year for the last few years - this year to June approx 23% lower than last year - see my previous posts and here:
https://www.nlog.nl/datacenter/brh-overview?lang=en

NL production costs up 12.6% from $11.3 to $12.73/boe.

Reading across to PMG they should get a similar nice % increase in revenues and profits.
But bear in mind that Diever production (the vast majority of PMG's interest, about 90%) has almost halved in three years, and continues to fall, so this is no long term growth story - they need to do something elsewhere and pretty quickly!

Financials (i.e NL gas) should be quite positive compared to last year(s). Gas prices up and likely to stay up in near future, but production down and continuing to fall..see previous posts.
Good news on Platypus will keep the ship steady and probably a step up in SP - and good news on Perth is a gamechanger. If there is no solid tangible news on Platypus or Perth then I see the SP heading south rapidly. Both projects, but particularly Perth, are the keys to making the company. No news now, coupled with the current 'climate', will result in a significant loss of investor appetite....just IMHO.

molokai, WTE don't need funding, they own shares in JHI, so indirect interest. JHI are funded for several more wells, we don't know exactly but estimate half a dozen or so of the 12 planned on Canje, first starting early next year through 2025.

https://guyanatimesgy.com/exxonmobil-plans-to-start-12-well-canje-drilling-campaign/

Disappointing.
Both Exxon and WTE would have known this before releasing their results yesterday.
Doubly disappointing that we seem to learn the news from a local news agency website - that feels badly managed.

Anyway, on to the next one.

Pure conjecture, but what do JHI's shareholders do now - stick or twist? Three dusters despite all the knowledge about the geology and they must be feeling twitchy (I certainly am).
A couple of sentences from WTE's statement yesterday caught my eye - "in spite of the access challenges", meaning it's not easy to invest directly there, "subject to future drilling outcomes, there are likely to be some consolidation opportunities within the basin amongst the junior players, as exploration matures and in response to risk management demands of investor capital. For the moment Westmount remains the only US OTCQB and London AIM listed junior player offering exposure to drilling outcomes across 3 blocks offshore Guyana."

Not necessarily positive drilling outcomes?
Might JHI's owners want to start reallocating more of their capital and flog some or all of it to the market, through an RTO with WTE. They have already done a share swap.
Or ECO for that matter, or maybe WTE with ECO and spread some of that risk into Namibia also. Just thoughts..

Or they could have been fishing for the last week(s) and it will simply take longer to finish the drill, we'll find out soon enough!

Oh harel, you are such a party pooper....do you not believe the gossip from the local bar ;-)

They (all parties) do seem to be very good at keeping stum. Which is good.
I tend to agree with some other's views that Friday may see an announcement due to corporate timing, or then again, there are any number of reasons why the drilling could be prolonged, which we wouldn't know about yet...

There's a lot of detailed in this (though it is old):

https://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/Charles_Stanley_Research_21.10.2013.pdf

If the recovery rate can be increased (see previous posts, has been strongly hinted at by PMG), it could be a serious gamechanger over and above current valuations:
Back in 2018 PMG undertook a study through AGR to model potential fracture stimulation of the reservoirs, which concluded (at least to the extent that has been announced publicly to date) - "New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation WOULD result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project’s oil recovery factor."

A few years earlier, Senergy estimated 24% recovery rate for Perth, when 2P was given as 41.3MMBbls. In a research note, Charles Stanley had to say about it: "For Phase 1, our economic valuation assumes a recovery rate of 24% (based on the Senergy 2P estimates). We expect the actual recovery rate to vary from this current best estimate, perhaps materially because there is quite a bit of uncertainty, in our opinion, relating to the distribution of higher quality sands within the heterogeneous Claymore reservoir. Recovery estimates for the Claymore and Scapa fields, which also produce from Claymore sands, increased over time to 40% and 56% respectively (according to the operator Talisman Energy's most recent publicly available estimates)."

The 2P figure hasn't changed to date, but if there is any validity to the carry across from Claymore and Scapa, then the recovery rate could potentially be doubled - which would be nice..

Just in case anybody didn't know, if you click on the filter tab ( above the post a message box in the Share Chat view) you can filter posters so you don't have to wade through the garbage.
Useful tool. ...unlike some of the posters I have filtered who maybe the latter, but certainly not the former ;-)

LOL ab76, nice work!

Just to repost (yet again) the GPA timeline summary:

2017 - In discussions with a number of leading, international service companies and oil companies.
2018 - Parkmead now in full control of the GPA oil hub project with operatorship and 100% equity.
2019 - Parkmead is in commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership in order to POTENTIALLY agree terms for a tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (“GPA”) to the Scott facilities.
2020 - Parkmead is in commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership, including CNOOC, in order to AGREE terms for a tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (“GPA”) to the Scott facilities.
Parkmead is also in discussions with other operators in the vicinity where new opportunities have arisen during the year.
2021 - Parkmead continues to assess DRAFT COMMERCIAL OFFERS received from the Scott field partnership for the potential tie-back of the Greater Perth Area (“GPA”).
“Infrastructure studies completed in 2020 have confirmed that there are no technical hurdles to produce Perth oil from the wells all the way through to the onshore facilities”
“Parkmead is also in discussions with other operators in the GPA vicinity where new opportunities have arisen during the year”

A lot depends on what JHI do - ECO (same as WTE) only have a shareholding in JHI. So their interest ends when JHI sell out.
And JHI are only carried for the drilling of up to four wells - Sapote-1 is the third of those four "and is funded for the drilling of additional wells." But probably not 12 - they had net assets of $46m at Dec 2020 and ECO paid them $10m for their shares. I'm guessing their 17.5% cost per well at $10--15m each? (Kawa-1 estimated at $85m total). At some point, They'll need to raise some cash or sell a stake or ..?
Their website says "Assemble a team of successful professionals with proven track records of RAISING CAPITAL, finding and developing oil & gas resources" (my CAPS). Let's hope that becomes relatively easy!

Why are you still here then scott240...

Let's hope so donmac...!

That's some decent sized and unusual (for WTE in recent months) trades for sure. Interesting...

When they actually start developing something then yes, probably better use for it then, but until then it is commercial interest rate. Not secured other than TC is director and shareholder of EMAL.
No opportunites yet that we know of. But then we didn't know about the potential wind farm project until it was announced either...

WTE holds 7.2% of JHI, who in turn have 17.5% of the Canje block - so an effective 1.26% of the block.

Sapote-1 is described as potentially the largest drill on Canje to date, and Jabilo-1 (previous drill) was targeting 1Bnbbls.

So if a positive result and commercial, WTE should have at least 1.26% x 1bn = 12.6Mbbls, worth at say $10/bbl, approx £92m - on this well alone.

WTE market cap is ~£20m after yesterday's and today's rises.

With another 12 drills lined up starting Q1 next year, and seven prospective areas identified so far then the potential is huge.

https://oilnow.gy/uncategorized/exxon-targeting-2022-start-up-for-major-12-well-campaign-at-canje-block/

Of course, what WTE is worth will be down to what JHI is worth and what they do. JHI's plan is to (hopefully) make the discoveries then sell up. I suspect there will be many suitors knocking on JHI's door if things go well.
WTE have talked of a potential RTO previously - guess that might be another route...

Anyway, as Celtics says, many more rolls of the dice to go even if this one doesn't work out.