The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
“Senator , you post some great thoughts and your far more clever than me , but for one JB definitely is that clever without doubt , irrelevant of how clever he is really the amount of money , experience and with the best people around him legal ”
Jb hates lawyers, you can see it in his tweets. He wouldn’t have made such a hash of the process if he was well advised."
Any board would bite his hand off at £1. Won't happen though.
"RG has £700 million of assets and Amigo a market value is £57mil."
That's because RG's 2019 accounts effectively included Amigo's accounts, as they owned a controllling interest of 61%. So the £700m is the Amigo loan book at March 2019.
Hes not the Messiah... he’s just a very naughty boy!
“ Did JB lie on twitter showing that Gc was on his side ? Thought people ??”
He just has zero self awareness.
“Hmm I thought they were meant to be bets buddies :)“
Amazing how Toxic individuals don’t have as many friends as they think when multi million pound equity awards are no longer at stake.
"I tend to agree, I think the number will increase but I don't think it can be qualified yet. People on the last results call were trying to get from the CFO a physical number of complaints that there redress value equated to but he wouldn't reveal that and kept saying "Not for commercials reasons." We have been given a number in the past, hopefully on Friday we will get a number."
A key number this time is how much redress they've actually paid. This actually went down in Q4 vs Q3. If they've got a backlog to clear for the FCA before the end of Q2 with a cost of tens of millions, they're going have to have stepped up the payment rate significantly from the 2-3m in Q3 and Q4
"Interested to hear from knowledge posters if they think the current amount of redress reserved for complaints will need to increase or if you think the current amount announced will be enough."
Ultimately it will probably need to increase. The provision seems to assume a pretty rapid deterioration in complaints volumes, which I don't think is credible. Goodbody assumes another £150m. https://www.goodbody.ie/assets/Goodbody_Morning_Wrap_20_July_2020.pdf.
How much will be written this quarter is questionable given the relatively short time since the year end presentation. Will depend on how much GC wants to get ahead of it, vs wiggle room vs debt convenants I imagine.
"Hyper - who lives at 12 Endeavour square in London then?"
Endeavour square is in Stratford (the East London one)
"James wants to move the funds from The UK company to the main holding company and to start lending. And leave The uk company to fight the FOS From what I can see. This seems a clever approach and means the company can start lending now should he win."
... just not in the UK.
1... Know what the key driver is here..... Ego (only I can fix it, refusal to recognise lending mistakes under his regime) and vengence. The ego element will have been stoked by the interaction with small investors on-line
2... This proposal would lead to major conflict of interest issues. Richmond group already operates guarantor loan businesses internationally, as well as having stakes in some others. So an internationally expansive Amigo under JB would be either be competing with himself or limiting Amigo's access to attractive markets where Richmond play. He'd also own what would be likely acqusition targets. Indeed a cynic might suggest that the play here is be to reverse takeover Amigo from RG.
3. The board won't want him anywhere near the company. He's shown over the last few months he's a total loose cannon. Institutional investors won't be interested either.
4. The FCA will take a pretty dim view of this. There's a reason he's made stated that he won't be CEO of the FCA regulated part, in that he knows they wouldn't authorise him. Regardless, they won't take kindly to him effectively having direction over the FCA business, particularly if they think the goal is to suck the cash out of the UK and put it overseas to avoid paying complaints.
5. "Return hundreds of millions of pounds on post-debt assets from it’s UK Lender", "Cost-cutting", "use the cash immediately returned to Group to build stable profitable businesses outside of the FOS and FCA policies"... is code for shut-down/severely downsize the UK business (that he supposedly loves).
6. I very much doubt if GC will be particularly up for reporting to JB. From what I hear, he tolerates him, can manage him, but they've had lots of clashes in the past, not least of which when JB walked off the board the time before last. Remember that GC was the enemy just a few months ago when he was a consultant.
"1) If you check consolidated statement of comprehensive income (page 19 of report for year ending Mar-2020) there's a line subtracted from revenue called "Complains expense" with total = £127m
2) If you check balance sheet (consolidated statement of financial position) on page 20 then there'll be a "Provisions" line totaling £106m
* both lines have notes with index 16 referring to page 62-63 of the report with further details/breakdown/expl. (there's also a note on FCA issue and estimated timeline {1~2 years})
I think with my limited knowledge first (Claims) is kept as off-balance provision (already deducted) while second (defaults) on-balance.
Claims expense (P&L, 126.8)- claims paid (Cash, 9.3) =117.5 = remaining claims provision on balance sheet (105.7 (ST) +11.8 (LT) )=117.5
"It needs the real money to get involved, if JB is anywhere near it that wont happen. The suits would never trust him. Until the big boys get involved this could stay grossly undervalued and thats why anyone seeing JB as a positive is also smoking dope."
Exactly. No institution investor is going near Amigo if JB was in charge. There was a reason he was kept hidden at the back on floation, and the last 9 months has made him toxic.
"https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AMIGO-HOLDINGS-PLC-44458576/company/
Inform them - they have this wrong
Leave it to you Rob:)"
It is wrong. Look at companies house, website and annual report. She was nominated, and then nomination was withdrawn
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/amigo_loans/news/rns/story/xon8k3w
"Kelly Black possibly promoted as CFO. (Audit background, ex RG )
Just Guessing...
With
1 new appointment for Director still open."
Why do you keep spouting this nonsense? Kelly Black isn't a director, or an accountant. Her "audit" background is of customer calls, not finance. Seriously, why make stuff up?
"Malpen you talk utter tosh, they have money set aside to cover the claims along with 145m unrestricted cash and a loan book of roughly 650m, these are 3 separate amounts, if the money set aside to cover claims which I would assume would be top end and worse case scenario was not enough then what they have if unrestricted cash would easily cover anything over"
That's not correct. The company has assets.... primarily cash and loan book, and liabilities (primarily the bond, securitisation, and the provision for the complaints). There's no money set aside as such for complaints, just recognition of the likely need to pay in future.
Hilarious. The board will tell him to do one. Glen would rather chop his arm off than report to him again. Nice to see that he at least recognises that he can’t be CEO of a FCA authorised business.
"I have just had a conversation with JB, he will put his proposal to the board and if they reject it then he can call a shareholder vote at which point all shareholders have the chance to vote him in"
If that's it, it's a bit pointless, as he can go back on the board anyway (well at least for the next few days). Based on previous moves, he'd also presumably want legacy members of the board out. FWIW, I doubt very much if any of the board want him back on, given his track record and previous behaviour.
Kelly Black isn't a director. She was nominated back in December but this was then withdrawn.
"Am I right in saying this company has £145m unrestricted cash at end of July...company is definitely turning sales into profits :-)"
Cash increase is heavily driven by running down loan book.