Member Info for RobertoLarcos

You do realise that you are one of the last remaining "bulls" - everyone else is starting to realise that a total wipeout is a real possibility

Jamesss if you want continue to keep your head buried in the sand, that's your prerogative

Reardon95.

Yesterday I gave you the traffic figures for the ASOS website, which are down 20% in the last 3 months vs. year before. Much worse than Shein which down just 10%.

Maybe that's the 'leak'

I see you are following the Calamonte tactic of blaming everyone else... weather, deflation, sector sentiment

Reminder: Debt holders do not care about excuses

It seems like many users on this BB are on the "1st and 2nd stages of Grief" caused by the dismal performance of this stock:

1. Denial - "It will go up", "6 more months", "Turnaround play", "Clear out stock", "Interest rates/inflation down"

2. Anger - As evidenced by the attacks to anyone with a bearish view

3. Bargaining - I bet we will reach this stage begging for a buy-out of administration

4. Depression - When equity finally gets wiped out

5. Acceptance

That's life, businesses fail, people lose money.

I'm comparing the exact 3 months May-Jul 2024 vs May-July 2023.

I don't have data prior to May-23.

Based on data from SimilarWeb:

In the months May, June, July 2024 website visits vs. the prior year were as follows:

ASOS - Down 20%

Boohoo - Down 35%

Shein - Down 10%

Next - Down 7%

M&S - Down 4%

I have mentioned this before...

ASOS will miss guidance for the full year, revenue decline will be higher than expected, cash generation lower than expected. Turnaround plan pushed back for another 6-12 months

Management will blame this on weather, low consumer confidence and geopolitical tension (same old story)

Problem is.... debt providers don't care about excuses. Refinance unlikely without another dilutive rights issue or more radical restructuring (administration)

Here comes the profit warning...!

🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨

KBYK maybe you should take Changeofpace's advise and sell too. Clearly you haven't done your research either, as the numbers don't add up (see my previous comments re cash flow post capex)

good luck

Because it's not making any money (cash) and has a huge pile of debt.

Don't forget that when buying shares in a company, you are investing in the equity stack, the company might well restructure its balance sheet by wiping out old equity, raising fresh capital to repay debt and move on with a healthier balance sheet.

In that case, your investment gets wiped out and you lose all your money, but the company continues to operate

You are closing your ears and burying your head in the sand again.

Even if everything that Calamonte promised comes true, the business will be barely breaking even in cash terms. Sophisticated investors know this, hence why their not touching this company and shorts are through the roof.

PS - Every single failing company had a 'turnaround plan' in place before it went bust, pls refer to PP1's list

You blindly believe what Calamonte says without critical thinking, because that's what you want to believe.

But even if that comes true and there's 10% revenue growth. 5% of 3.3bn is £165m EBIT instead of £150... still not enough to cover CAPEX, interest and taxes!!! Not to mention we're taking the 5% for granted, when the guidance is 3-5%...

5% on £3bn is indeed £150m profit.

However, you are forgetting that ASOS are spending north of £100m in CAPEX each year. Then you have interest, taxes etc.. so pretty much cash breakeven at best!

This is why fundamentally the share price is at these levels. Management need to do a lot more than what they promised. Before SHEIN arrived, revenues were growing 10-15% and this was priced as a growth stock... that's no longer the story sadly!

Have you lowered your expectations during the past year or so?

What would be a 'significant' reward for you?

Who cares about that? I simply agreed with PP1's statement - stop trying to average down - you're trying to catch a falling knife.

And if you need evidence of that, simply look at the share price movement since Calamonte took over - it's in freefall !!!

Needs to triple to get back to where it was when he took over! That's a 0% improvement in the share price (versus 40% growth in the S&P over the same period).

And that's IF the price triples!

You don't need a degree in Finance to comprehend that a company with 650m debt, that is losing money, operating in an extremely competitive market is higher risk than the S&P 500.

That's common sense... "CAPM and beta stuff.." LOL