Member Info for rob295

To be honest I can't see the issue on the hybrid instrument :

"The Group has in issue a Sterling denominated hybrid instrument of £500m, with an annual coupon rate of 4.25%. The contractual terms of the instrument allow the Group to defer coupon payments and the repayment of the principal indefinitely. However, any deferred payments must be made in the event of a dividend distribution. The instrument was issued in November 2020 and the terms also allow for the instrument to be redeemed at the option of the Group at five years after issue (first call date) and 10 years (second call date), and subsequently at each coupon date or in the event of highly specific circumstances (such as a change in IFRS or change of control). As the Group has the unconditional right to avoid transferring cash or another financial asset in relation to this instrument, it is classified within equity. The annual coupon rate is fixed for the first five years, and thereafter reset according to the specific terms of the issuance."

I can't see the interest rate on it but they can use the whole £600m rolling credit facility whenever needed as well (which can be extended to 2030). But it does fall into the general borrowing mix of things to pay off over time or carry the cost of debt which is higher than it used to be.

Only issue is the speed of paying down the debt so its just a patience game needing cashflow over time (which may be affected by yearly shifts in cash flow).

Can't see what the big hope is on a North American sale though. The deferred tax means it clearly has a value but not sure how you get that value given the company as a whole is valued at £330m... seems better to keep it IMO and make it work.

Current value seems fair enough given ifs and buts... but should be worth £1-2 if they can deliver the performance that should be delivered IMO.

On the hybrid, I may be wrong but I figured given the fairly straightforward refinancing it would be easy to replace with borrowings? If not immediate you could even do £200-300m from cash and as the rate on the hybrid is unlikely to be exceeded by new borrowings you could even drop the finance cost by using part cash. I couldn’t see much about their plans but cutting the debt instead of paying dividends would probably help the valuation multiple. I didn’t get all the way through the placement document for the hybrid instrument though… only scanned it so I’m relying a bit on assumptions. Might go back through everything and see if they give any comments about what they have planned.

Have spent the day looking at this one and aside from MCG having some of the hardest accounts to get through due to all the restatements etc looks like for FY23 the key is :

INCREASE / DECREASE IN CASH : £64.4m

Which can be adjusted for gain from borrowings (£92.3m), payments to shareholders (-£41.4m), acquisition costs (-£58.7m) and the variation of financial instruments (£21.3m) to get a clean net change in cash of :

CLEAN INCREASE / DECREASE IN CASH : £50.9m

So if in FY23 we had operating profits of £168.6m and if you assume all else stays the same and the operating profit rises to £185-205m then shifts our new NET GAIN in cash (assuming zero average on financial instruments) of £67.3-87.3m - which if we apply a multiplier of 7 and adjust for shares in issue gives 77-100p which seems a bit more in line. For reference the FY23 figure of £50.9m on the same method gives 58p which looks like the current share price so maybe it is where it should be right now (assuming a multiplier of 7 is valid).

What are the general thoughts on the impact of H1 results next month? Should be the first detailed breakdown of activity this year. Target FY Adjusted Operating Profit is £185m to £205m (£136.8m). Last year was muddied by the impairments but did see £64.4m increase in cash position which included £41.1m in dividends so make that £105.5m cash flow to investors after operations, investments, finance costs etc).

If those expectations for FY24 are to be believed it feels like a probable £100-150m cash flow through the year so call cash position £400-450m by year end. Borrowings last year were £1,600m plus there were net £400m trade payables so £2,000m debt. But that £100-150m in cashflow is post a £63m interest payment on the debt - the borrowings are mostly long term so that amount is unlikely to change too much (mostly maturing around 2028 to 2031) and in the order of 3% to 5% which aligns with £63m being 4% of £1,600m.

So lets says we hit FY24 Adjusted Operating Profit is £185m and call it £125m in cashflow coming in post financing, investing etc, at what point do you think that feeds into the share price? I mean borrowing costs shouldn't climb too much higher (allow for a few tens of millions as a buffer maybe?) and financial performance will hopefully improve so when does a market cap of £330m start to look cheap. I'd see it as free cashflow of £125m muliplied by 7 years (factoring in high debt - would be nice to see some of it paid down with the free cashflow) so £875m which seems wrong as that is 145p per share which is way above current value. Or am I missing big cash costs down the line above the levels in FY23 - don't think debt will be an issue so if the share price is right it must be something else?

Glastonbury National Express use was up 20% which will hopefully help get some additional users more long term https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mobico-group-plc_national-express-is-the-official-coach-partner-ugcPost-7212027718383628288-8kH3

"The Sturmey Award, named for Autocar’s founding editor Henry Sturmey, was awarded to Aston Martin Executive Vice President and Chief Creative Officer, Marek Reichman. This award was given in recognition of Reichman’s involvement in ten years of radical and exciting model developments, working on models such as the Aston Martin DB11 and Aston Martin DBX, as well as the Vulcan, a track-only sports car."

https://www.whatcar.com/news/2024-autocar-awards-winners-revealed/n26920?callback=in&code=N2UYMZFHNTUTYZNLNY0ZOGZILWI0ZDKTODEXNZEXYZM2ZGFM&state=ef0316036e2e45b1b4760463d1de2859

Here is an interview : “ In this episode Paul Comfort interviews Erick Van Wagenen, CEO of WeDriveU, formerly National Express. They discuss the transformation of National Express, the North American Transit Alliance, and the evolving role of contractors in public transportation”

https://transitunplugged.com/transit-unplugged-podcast/erick-van-wagenen/?utm_source=LinkedIN&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=transitunplugged

https://www.emrdeliverybody.com/Prequalification/Advice%20for%20capacity%20agreement%20holders%20and%20capacity%20market%20applicants%20v1.1.pdf

We are back?

ServiceOperations increases penetration of North American Electronics market 21 June 2012 - ServicePower Technologies Plc (AIM: SVR), a market leader in field management, is pleased to announce that it has secured three new contracts for its ServiceOperations Software-as-a-Service platform with leading North American suppliers of electronics and appliances. ServiceOperations enables ServicePower's customers to manage the dispatch of jobs and the payment of claims through independent contractors. The contracts are on a revenue per transaction basis and are expected to scale in the second half of the year following successful implementation. http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201206210700108251F&fe=1&utm_source=FE%20Investegate%20Alerts&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=Announcement%20Alert%20Mail&utm_campaign=ServicePower%20Tech.%20Alert

Lol. On the plus side it's great to have thrifty directors on board, but I'm not sure I get the point of that buy.

I know what you mean.... a bit of a chat every now and then to explain how things are going would always be nice... never heard of it actually happening though. Can't help but agree... a bit of running dialogue on a monthly basis might do wonders for preventing the loss of sentiment you see in these companies. Not sure what they can do about the second point though. Just sitting on the sidelines myself seeing where the wind is blowing on this one while funds are tied up elsewhere and hoping to pick up some insights off long term investors who generally know what's what. Every now and then I get excited by seeing a multi-million buy until I realise just how many shares are in issue.

I would be interested to hear what you think should be done better. Is it better cash management, more progress or something else?

I have quite a good look now, but I'll come back and give you a thoughts when I've done a bit more looking BM26. I think its going to be a long tough journey to anything more than nominal profits, but I think that at the right price I would be interested. I don't think the litigation is quite company killing if all goes wrong so at the moment my thoughts are to discount for the worst and hope for the best. bigfootsnr2010 - I'm interested because one day it looks like it might make money. Investors often underestimate just how long the journey to profitability is on these sorts of company's, but I'm happy investing in them with a good margin of safety between my perceived value and perceived buying. The biggest thing I'm questioning is whether they've enough money to do anything more than be a very small market player. Thinking about expansion if things go to plan and they use up their capacity, my thoughts are along the lines of what is done next. For me that is what knocks most value off.

Afternoon everyone, just trying to get my head round this litigation and I was wondering what long term holders thought of it?

Posted on iii by drumster: http://www.climateweeknyc2011.org/news/videos/bryan-hansel-ceo-smith-electric-vehicles-climate-week-nyc

No bother. We now have a decent amount to work off... we know the costs will be about $5,150,000 for a 90,000 sq ft facility. A lease agreement would be announced on the 1st November 2011 with work starting on 1st November 2012 and finishing in December 2013. The big question I guess is why the delay if the property is currently vacant?

Okay... this link should be of interest to many of you: http://www.nycedc.com/AboutUs/PublicMeetings/NYCIDAPublicHearing/Documents/Smith%20Electric%20Vehicles%20FINAL%20Public%20Hearing%20Package_9%2021%2011.pdf Just one location, but the most data I've seen on one file.

To be honest I felt 40p would offer resistance against falls, but unsure if this is a corrective rise or speculative... I guess time will tell.

Article of interest: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/valence-technology-announces-preliminary-fiscal-first-quarter-2012-results-2011-07-18?reflink=MW_news_stmp Here is an extract of interest: "AUSTIN, Texas, Jul 18, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Valence Technology, Inc. /quotes/zigman/79580/quotes/nls/vlnc VLNC +9.71% , a leading U.S. based global manufacturer of advanced energy storage solutions, today announced that it expects revenue of approximately $13.5 to $14.0 million for its fiscal 2012 first quarter ended June 30, 2011. Executive Commentary "Our first quarter revenue is projected to be above our May 25, 2011 guidance of $8.5 to $10.5 million, principally due to significant shipments to Smith Electric Vehicles. In addition, we continue to see a positive trend in orders from both existing and new customers. This includes dozens of customers in diverse markets worldwide," commented president and chief executive officer Robert L. Kanode. "